Why is Framber Valdez still on the market? Three possible explanations for top pitcher's slow free agency

Spring training camps open next week and left-hander Framber Valdez, the offseason's top free-agent pitcher, remains unsigned. The longtime Houston Astros ace turned 32 in November and threw 192 innings with a 3.66 ERA last season. The under-the-hood numbers (3.37 FIP and 3.74 xERA) were strong as well. One of the game's top pitchers is still looking for work.

The first substantive Valdez rumor in several weeks came across Tuesday:

The Toronto Blue Jays met with Valdez in November, before they signed Dylan Cease, reports Sportsnet. Toronto has six starters for five rotation spots (Cease, Shane Bieber, José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Cody Ponce, Trey Yesavage), so their continued interest in Valdez seems like the Blue Jays being opportunistic. If other teams are sitting out, maybe we should pounce? That kind of thing.

Valdez will sign soon enough. Every pitcher capable of giving credible innings signs at some point, and Valdez is far above credible. He can front a contender's rotation and is someone who can start in the postseason. My guess is Valdez will sign within the next 7-10 days, though I emphasize that is just a guess. Spring training's arrival has a way of speeding up the process.

It is not uncommon for top free agents to remain unsigned deep into the offseason and even into spring training these days. Blake Snell, coming off his second Cy Young award, didn't sign with the San Francisco Giants until March 19, 2024. Given the perpetual need for quality pitching though, it is a bit odd someone with Valdez's resume and ability remains available in the early days of February. Here are three possible reasons the three-time top-10 finisher in the Cy Young voting is still unsigned.

The qualifying offer/contract demands

Let's get the easy one out of the way first: Valdez and his representatives may have set a very high asking price this offseason and aren't budging. Add in the qualifying offer, meaning teams will have to surrender a draft pick(s) to sign him, and Valdez's camp may be making it easy for interested teams to look elsewhere. Simply put, teams may not value him at the contract he wants.

Red flags under the hood

You have to squint a little bit, but there are some red flags with Valdez's underlying performance. His changeup, for example, has gradually slipped from an excellent pitch in 2022 to an average pitch in 2025 per Statcast's run values. As a result, his effectiveness against righties has waned. Valdez has gone from platoon neutral to being a bit vulnerable against righties.

Here are some numbers on Valdez's last few seasons:

Valdez's strikeout rate has been trending down and his walk rate has been trending up, the latter reaching league average last year. League average isn't bad, but it's not what Valdez was earlier in his career. Among 52 qualified pitchers, Valdez's 46.3% hard-hit rate was sixth highest in baseball last season. Fewer strikeouts plus more hard contact is not a great combination.

Last year, Valdez ran a 58.6% ground ball rate, which is far above the league average (41.8%), but is well south of the near-70% ground ball rates Valdez put up earlier in his career. He's never been a big bat-misser. His thing has always been suffocating ground balls, and Valdez is getting fewer of them these days than he did earlier in his career. That hasn't gone unnoticed.

To be clear, these "red flags" indicate Valdez is trending toward being above average rather than truly elite. This isn't a pitcher who looks to be at risk of becoming a 5.00 ERA guy in 2026. It does look like Valdez will soon be closer to a 3.80 ERA guy than a 3.30 ERA guy though (hey, 3.80 ERA guys win you games too). That may be giving teams pause.

Clubhouse concerns

Fair or not, Valdez may have brought this on himself. Last Sept. 2, Valdez appeared to intentionally cross up catcher César Salazar, hitting him in the chest with a fastball. Valdez had given up a grand slam to the previous batter and his reaction to hitting Salazar -- turning his back to the plate and walking to the mound -- is not the usual reaction to a cross up.

Here is the pitch in question:

Astros manager Joe Espada called both Salazar and Valdez into his office after the game and, the next day, Valdez told reporters, "I said sorry to (Salazar) and I take full responsibility for that." Cross ups happen, but, at best, Valdez did not show any concern for his catcher after he took a fastball to the chest. At worst, it appeared intentional and done out of frustration.

Some players are jerks. I don't know if Valdez is a jerk, but some players are jerks, and teams find a way to live with them as long as they perform. The Astros won a World Series and multiple AL West titles with Valdez. If he is a jerk, he's not so much of a jerk that he will derail his team's season. My guess is any clubhouse concerns are not viewed as a dealbreaker and are instead being used as leverage during contract talks.

This late in the offseason, chances are Valdez will have to settle for a high-dollar/short-term contract. He's up against the calendar and also players typically don't get long-term deals going into their age-32 season. Two or three years at $25 million to $27 million annually, with opt outs, could be the ultimate outcome here. It only takes one team to go beyond that though.

The Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, San Diego Padres, and San Francisco Giants jump to mind as contenders that could use another quality starter. (Valdez and the Cubs' infield defense would be a terrific match.) The longer he lingers as a free agent, the more likely it is a surprise team swoops in. Maybe the Athletics or Atlanta Braves? Even with some red flags, Valdez will sign and do well for himself, likely sooner rather than later too.