On Tuesday, the Braves fired manager Fredi Gonzalez. The decision raised many questions, including the one that Gonzalez's peers would rather avoid entertaining: which manager will be the next to go?
Before introducing our list of the five most likely candidates, let's roll out the legally obligated caveat: these exercises are more art than science -- or, in the most honest terms, these exercises are glorified guessing games. Without knowing how management and/or ownership feels about each manager, there's no way of knowing for certain who is (or isn't) on the hot seat.
To embrace that, we've included a wrinkle here that you might appreciate: we've asked a random number generator -- hereby "Randy" for short -- to assess each candidate's likelihood of dismissal. Remember: Randy knows nothing -- literally nothing -- so its input is for entertainment purposes only . . . at least until it proves correct. (Note: the candidates are listed in alphabetical order.)
Brad Ausmus, Detroit Tigers
Why he's on the list: There are many factors working against Ausmus. For one, the general manager who hired him is now employed elsewhere. For another, the Tigers brought in an experienced big-league skipper (Lloyd McClendon) to serve as their Triple-A manager -- thus giving them an internal Plan B, should circumstances demand a change during the season. There's also the matter of Ausmus being a questionable tactical skipper, the Tigers being in fourth place, and, oh, by the way, those pesky rumors from last fall that the Tigers were going to replace Ausmus with Ron Gardenhire. Ausmus has the reputation of being a good baseball man -- which manager doesn't? -- but it would be a surprise if he finishes out the season as Detroit's navigator.
Randy's odds of dismissal: 91 percent
Our guess: He's the top candidate in the American League to be fired next.
John Gibbons, Toronto Blue Jays
Why he's on the list: Gibbons, who has been fired by the Blue Jays before, always seems to walk the line between employed and unemployed. Working in his favor is last fall's postseason run. Working against Gibbons is the Jays' offseason front-office changes -- including the eyebrow-raising decision to bring in Eric Wedge, himself a former skipper who managed Cleveland under members of the Jays' remade front office. If the Jays are looking to pull the plug on Gibbons' second run, then they might not need more reason than the club's current sub-.500 record and six-game deficit within the division.
Randy's odds of dismissal: 3 percent
Our guess: He's safe for the time being.
Joe Girardi, New York Yankees
Why he's on the list: Girardi is a good manager -- probably one of the best in baseball -- but his inclusion is straightforward. The Yankees are in last place despite a $225 million payroll, and while the Steinbrenner brothers have been more patient than their father was, they're probably not pleased with the team's current state. Factor in Brian Cashman's recent vote of confidence, and it's fair to wonder if Girardi will make it to a 10th season as the Yankees skipper.
Randy's odds of dismissal: 5 percent
Our guess: He's safe for the time being.
Paul Molitor, Minnesota Twins
Why he's on the list: Molitor earned good will by overseeing a surprisingly competent 2015, and the Twins are Braves-like in their reluctance to change managers. Still, it's hard to ignore how poorly this season is going in Minnesota: there's the awful record, the report earlier this week in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune that the Twins miss Torii Hunter's leadership, and the stalled development of their top prospects. Molitor isn't to blame for all of that -- he might not be to blame for most of it -- but you have to wonder if a change could be coming before the season ends.
Randy's odds of dismissal: 26 percent
Our guess: He's safe for the time being.
Bryan Price, Cincinnati Reds
Why he's on the list: Price's situation is that most similar to Fredi Gonzalez's, in that both entered the year knowing they'd lose far more often than they'd win. The difference is, whereas Gonzalez drew ire for his on-the-field decisions, Price has received attention for his repeated outbursts aimed at umpires and the press. It also doesn't help his standing that his supposed specialty is pitching, given how poorly the Reds have been in that category. (Though that isn't entirely Price's fault.) General manager Dick Williams didn't hire Price in the first place, but you can bet he'll be the one to fire him -- probably sometime before the All-Star Game.
Randy's odds of dismissal: 52 percent
Our guess: He's almost certainly the next skipper fired.