The Cleveland Guardians are two wins away from their first pennant since 2016. The Guardians rallied in the middle innings to win Game 3 over the Tampa Bay Rays at Progressive Field on Thursday afternoon (CLE 3, TB 2). The game had been moved up from 6 p.m. ET to 1 p.m. ET due to incoming rain. Cleveland leads the best-of-seven series 2-1.
After hitting the fourth fewest home runs in baseball during the regular season, the Guardians again leaned on the long ball in their Game 3 win. Defense-first outfielder Petey Halpin provided the big blow with a two-run homer in the fifth inning. In Game 1, the Guardians used solo homers from Chase DeLauter and Patrick Bailey to erase an early 2-0 deficit. It was the first postseason career home run for Halpin, who had just four in the regular season.
Gavin Williams held the Rays to two runs in five innings. He struck out nine and threw only 70 pitches. Williams was taken out early because he threw 94 pitches five days ago, and came out of the bullpen two days before that. His velocity had begun to slip in the fifth inning, so manager Stephen Vogt got his ace out of there and went to the bullpen.
Game 4 is scheduled for Friday night, though the weather forecast in Cleveland is not good. MLB tries to avoid stops and starts during the postseason. It is more likely Game 4 will be postponed and made up Sunday during what would have been the off-day between Games 5 and 6 than played through rain on Friday.
Historically, teams that take a 2-1 lead in a best-of-seven have gone on to win the series 70% of the time. The Guardians are in the driver's seat, though the ALCS is far from over. Here now are our winners and losers from Game 3.
Winner: Little guys showing off their power
Just as we all expected, Halpin provided the big blow in Game 2. Cleveland's speed-and-defense center fielder clubbed a no-doubt two-run home run to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the fifth inning. Halpin knew he got it, admired it, and flipped his bat accordingly. Hit a ball like this and you've earned the right to do that.
In 203 caeer plate appearances, Halpin has hit four home runs, though he did slug 14 homers in 126 Triple-A games a year ago. He has some power, but really, that's not Halpin's game. He's a glove guy in center field. He's playing because Angel Martínez, who led Cleveland with 18 home runs during the regular season, is 1 for 18 with 10 strikeouts this postseason.
Halpin's homer gave the Guardians a 3-2 lead. Two innings earlier, Chandler Simpson gave the Rays a 2-1 lead with a two-out, two-strike, two-run triple into the right field corner. At 102.1 mph, it is the hardest Simpson has ever hit a ball in the air as a big leaguer. This is it right here. This is as hard as he's shown he can hit a baseball:
In the first inning Simpson grounded out to second base with a 100 mph exit velocity on the nose. This is a player who put 11 balls in play with a 100 mph or better exit velocity during the regular season. Eleven times on 503 balls in play during the regular season, then he did it twice in two at-bats against a bona fide ace in Williams in Game 3. Go figure.
Simpson has never, in 531 games between the majors and minors, hit an outside-the-park home run. His only pro homer is an inside-the-parker in Double-A in 2024. Power is not his game, and Simpson knows it. He is the fastest player in baseball, so he prioritizes putting the ball on the ground, and running like crazy. That triple is his version of power.
Loser: Tampa's contact skills
No team struck out less often than the Rays during the regular season. Their hitters collectively fanned in only 18.8% of their plate appearances, the lowest rate in baseball and well below the 22.1% league average. This is what the Rays do. They put the ball in play and pressure defenses because, other than Junior Caminero, they don't have much power.
Those contact skills did not do the Rays any good in Game 3. They struck out 13 times against Williams and three relievers after striking out 13 times on only one occasion during the regular season. The Milwaukee Brewers struck out 14 Rays on March 30. Caminero, Tampa's superstar third baseman and MVP candidate, went 0 for 4 with four strikeouts in Game 3.
Williams faced 18 batters in his five innings and struck out nine. Exactly half. Only seven times did one pitcher strike out nine Rays during the regular season, though Williams was one of those nine. He fanned nine Rays on April 29.
Game 3's biggest strikeout came in the eighth inning, when Guardians closer Cade Smith fanned Yandy Díaz to strand the tying run at third base. It was a battle -- Díaz saw 10 pitches -- but Smith eventually got him to swing through a 98 mph heater in the zone to end the inning.
The Rays had a way more effective offense at Tropicana Field than on the road during the regular season. They had a .748 OPS at home and a .709 OPS on the road thanks to the Trop's turf. The turf plays very fast and the Rays are built to use it to their advantage with their speed and contact skills. The Guardians took the contact element right out of play in Game 3.
Winner: Stephen Vogt's quick hook
It was a bit curious when Vogt pulled Williams, his ace, after only five innings and 70 pitches. It was a sound decision though, and not just because four relievers shut the Rays down the rest of the way. Williams threw 94 pitches in Game 5 of the ALDS five days ago and came out of the bullpen two days before that. That's a heavy workload this late in the year.
Williams' average fastball by inning tells you why Vogt pulled him so early in Game 3:
- 1st inning: 97.9 mph
- 2nd inning: 98.2 mph
- 3rd inning: 97.6 mph
- 4th inning: 98.2 mph
- 5th inning: 95.3 mph
Losing three ticks in the middle innings is a big red flag. Vogt saw it, turned the game over this (excellent) bullpen, and left with a win and a 2-1 series lead.
Loser: Kevin Cash's too-slow hook
It's ironic that Rays manager Kevin Cash got burned by leaving his starter, Griffin Jax, in too long in Game 3. Cash's most (in)famous moment as a manager came during Game 6 of the 2020 World Series, when he pulled a cruising Blake Snell after only 73 pitches. The bullpen immediately blew that game and Cash is still second-guessed to this day about that decision.
On Thursday, Cash stuck with Jax to start the fifth inning with a 2-1 lead even though he'd only pitched once in the previous 18 days, and, like Williams, was beginning to bleed velocity. Furthermore, Jax moved back into the rotation this season and threw 112 ⅓ innings. He never threw more than 72 ⅓ innings as a reliever from 2022-25. This is uncharted workload territory for Jax.
Bailey beat out an infield single to open the fifth, which was just a tough break, but then Halpin launched Jax's 67th and final pitch for what proved to be the game-winning home run. Is this second-guessing? Sure, but one manager pulled his starter when the red flags popped up and the other stuck with him. The manager who acted quickly has a 2-1 series lead.
