The Miami Marlins faced some pretty serious adversity in 2016, but still improved upon their 2015 season by eight wins. They hung around in contention for a bit, but a 13-25 stretch from July 28-Sept. 6 is part of what ultimately meant they would miss the playoffs by more than eight games.
And missing the playoffs is a big deal, albeit something that’s relatively commonplace at this point. That 2003 World Series championship is an excellent memory in Marlins history, but they haven’t appeared in the postseason since. Though it’s only a 13-year drought, no National League team has a longer playoff drought and only the Mariners have a longer one in all of baseball.
A young position player core and improved bullpen could help erase that drought, though there’s a gaping hole atop the rotation.
Unfortunately, we can’t really talk about these Marlins without mentioning the adversity. Some of it would be the Dee Gordon PED suspension or a season-altering slump for Giancarlo Stanton. Nothing even comes close to the Marlins losing Jose Fernandez to a boating accident. Only talking in baseball terms, that’s the type of on-field loss that sets a franchise back years.
The vitals
2016 record: 79-82
2017 depth chart: Click here
2017 schedule: Click here
Outfield potential is best in baseball
The best thing the Marlins have going for them is the upside in the outfield. The trio of Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Stanton carries the potential to be the best outfield in all of baseball.
Of course, as a former coach of mine used to say, “potential means nothing.” They have to perform.
I have little doubt Yelich will. In three full seasons so far, his OPS has gone from .764 to .782 to .859. The big jump last year was the power, as Yelich added that component to his game at age 24. His previous career high in doubles was 30 and he had 38. His previous career high in homers was nine and in 2016 he hit 21. He runs the bases well and plays quality defense. All of this helped Yelich to finish seventh in the NL in WAR among position players last season, behind Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager, Anthony Rizzo and Jean Segura.
So I’m not worried about Yelich. He’s only going to continue to get better. The other two carry question marks, though.
Ozuna has long shown big upside. After a good year in 2014, he had a down year in 2015 that included a demotion to the minors (though it seemed a pretty silly decision by the Marlins). In 2016, after a bad start, he went nuts for a stretch. Through May 29, he was hitting .344/.392/.598 and carried a .307/.360/.533 line into an All-Star Game start. Of course, he hit .209 after the break and the reality is that he hit .226/.285/.378 after May 29. The overwhelming bulk of his production came in a 36-game stretch from April 21 to May 29, when he hit .399/.454/.710.
So who is Ozuna? He has the potential, but he needs to find consistent production.
The same goes for Giancarlo Stanton, the best raw power hitter in the world. He’s one of only 16 players in MLB history with at least 200 home runs through his age-26 season. Among that group, only Juan Gonzalez appeared in fewer games. For comparison’s sake, at the same point in his career, Miguel Cabera had just one more home run than Stanton (209 to 208), but needed 941 more at-bats.
And therein lies one of the quandaries with Stanton. Will he ever stay on the field enough to truly break through to what he could be? Since 2011, here are his games played per season: 123, 116, 145, 74, 119. There have been various injuries ranging in severity.
Also of concern was the month-long slump last season from mid-May to mid-June when Stanton hit .118 with only two homers and 40 strikeouts in 85 at-bats.
Alongside Yelich, Ozuna and Stanton can help form the best outfield in baseball. There’s a difference between what “can” happen and what does happen, though.
Questionable starting pitching
The Marlins ranked sixth in the NL in rotation ERA last year with a mark of 4.32. Of course, when we remove Jose Fernandez’s excellent work, that figure runs to 4.70, which would’ve ranked 11th in the NL, ahead of only the Reds, Rockies, Braves and Diamondbacks.
Are the additions of Dan Straily and Edinson Volquez enough to push that mark back to where it was with a true ace. Color me skeptical.
Straily carried a career 4.60 ERA and 1.31 WHIP into last season before breaking through with a 14-8 record and 3.76 ERA. There are red flags, though. He gave up an NL-worst 31 homers and put 84 runners on base in 191 1/3 innings via either the walk or hit by pitch.
Now, one might mention that Straily played in a homer-friendly park last season in Great American Ball Park and Marlins Park isn’t so friendly. And that’s true. But 18 of Straily’s 31 homers allowed came on the road. He actually had a 4.70 ERA on the road compared to 2.90 in GABP.
As for Volquez, he’s had more bad years than good and is coming off a season with a 5.37 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. He led the AL in runs allowed.
Overall, I don’t like this rotation at all.
But there’s good news.
Beefed up bullpen
The Marlins did recognize the rotation would be a problem, so they are looking to shorten the game.
A.J. Ramos is an established, All-Star closer. I’m guessing not many outside south Florida know this, but David Phelps (2.28 ERA, 114 K, 86.2 IP) and Kyle Barraclough (2.85 ERA, 113 K, 72.2 IP) were outstanding last season. Even former starter Dustin McGowan had a quality season of relief.
To those guys, the Marlins went out and tried to add a big-name closer like Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen. They swung and missed, but did add some key pieces in Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa.
Zielger’s been good pretty much throughout his career and though he’s 37, he’s posted a 2.05 ERA in the last two seasons combined. Count me in the camp that believes his deceptive, side-winder delivery helps him age well in baseball and I don’t believe it will change this year.
Tazawa had one excellent and two good seasons in Boston before having consistency issues in each of the last two seasons. Perhaps a change of scenery and move to the NL helps get him back to something like 2014 form (2.86 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.1 K/9).
Phelps and McGowan showed the ability to work multiple innings at a time last season while Ramos, Barraclough, Ziegler and Tazawa give the Marlins four potential late-inning guys.
Obviously, the Marlins can’t treat the regular season as they would the playoffs, but there’s good ability to shorten the game here when need be. Just spit-balling here, but: If a starter can scrape through five, they could get two from Phelps, one from Ziegler and one from Barraclough and it would still leave McGowan, Tazawa and Ramos for the next night in a similar setup.
In theory, this will be how the Marlins can cover up for their lackluster rotation.
World Baseball Classic injury
Martin Prado is coming off a very good season, is a veteran presence for the Marlins young position-playing starters and is a great contact hitter. He also injured his hamstring during the World Baseball Classic and is out indefinitely. He’s expected to begin the season on the disabled list, and that means he’ll need to work back up to game speed on a rehab assignment (extended spring training to start) once he’s ready to return to action. It’s possible he misses most of April.
For a team that figures in a good scenario to be on the fringe of contention, that’s a tough break.
Not only is Prado valuable, but in sliding Derek Dietrich to third base to open the season, the Marlins infield depth is pretty weak.
Probable lineup
- Dee Gordon, 2B
- Marcell Ozuna, LF
- Christian Yelich, CF
- Giancarlo Stanton, RF
- Justin Bour, 1B
- J.T. Realmuto, C
- Derek Dietrich, 3B
- Adeiny Hechavarria, SS
Bench: A.J. Ellis, C; Miguel Rojas, IF; Ichiro Suzuki, OF
Obviously, Prado is the everyday starter at third base once he’s ready to return from his aforementioned hamstring injury. Who takes the last position-player spot to open the season remains to be seen. Perhaps outfielder Destin Hood or infielder Tyler Moore.
Probable rotation
- Wei-Yin Chen (L)
- Edinson Volquez (R)
- Adam Conley (L)
- Dan Straily (R)
- Tom Koehler (R)
ALT: Jose Urena (R)
Jeff Locke could also be a depth guy at some point, should he return from his biceps tendinitis.
Probable bullpen
Closer: A.J. Ramos (R)
Setup: Brad Ziegler (R), Junichi Tazawa (R), Kyle Barraclough (R)
Lefty: Hunter Cervenka
The rest: Urena, David Phelps (R), Dustin McGowan (R)
Sportsline projection: 76-86, third place in NL East
