Though Monday technically brings us the last two games of the 2024 regular season, they are basically postseason games. We've got two teams competing and the playoff life of another hanging in the balance. The Mets visit the Braves for two games. If either team sweeps the doubleheader, the winner will make the playoffs along with the Diamondbacks. If there's a split, both of Monday's combatants make the playoffs while the D-backs are sent home for the winter.
Given that this feels like the playoffs, let's grab some action. I already have a game pick and a play on the total posted for subscribers at SportsLine, but we can grab some free props here.
So far, there are no lines posted for the second game of the doubleheader and that's with good reason. Whichever team wins the first game will dial it back in a major way for Game 2. For the hardcore players out there, it would be advisable to check the lines immediately after the first game ends and jump on the losing team for Game 2. I expect there to be a ton of juice on it, so maybe playing the run line would be better. Just keep that in mind.
These plays are only for the first game.
Matt Olson, over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115)
It has been a big off-year for Olson in 2024, but he picked it up down the stretch. In his last 19 games, he hit .391/.512/.656 with five doubles, four homers, 20 RBI and 10 runs. His 25 hits combined with the runs and RBI here means he's averaged nearly three hits plus runs plus RBI a game and we only need two to hit this prop.
Further, Mets starter Tylor Megill can be susceptible to getting knocked around by lefties. The last time these two squared off in a game was July 27 and Olson hit a home run. If he does the same on Monday, we're home.
Spencer Schwellenbach under 5.5 K (+125)
I expect Schwellenbach to throw pretty well on Monday, but that doesn't mean he has to rack up a huge number of strikeouts and I love the plus money on this one. A lot of things could go wrong before he'd get to six strikeouts anyway.
The Mets can be difficult to strike out as a team at times. On the season, they were middle of the pack in strikeout rate. They just saw Schwellenbach on Sept. 24 and he only gave up one run in seven innings, but he still only struck out four. In fact, he's only struck out 20 in his last five starts combined and only once in that stretch did he get over 5.5 (it was exactly six).
On top of this, I love that the Mets just saw him less than a week ago. The more hitters see the stuff of a pitcher, the easier it is to get a read on it. If they only struck out four times in seven innings last time and are getting another look at him in the exact same ballpark, it's hard to believe he'd miss a lot more bats.
