The 2024 Major League Baseball postseason continues apace on Wednesday with Game 3 of the National League Championship Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets. The best-of-seven series is tied at 1-1, and the winner of this NLCS will advance to the World Series to face the New York Yankees or the Cleveland Guardians. The Yankees lead that series 2-0, which of course raises the possibility of a compelling Yankees-Dodgers or Yankees-Mets World Series.
As for the NLCS, the Dodgers cruised to a win in Game 1 behind Jack Flaherty's seven shutout innings, but the Mets rebounded to take Game 2 with some early home-run power, including a Mark Vientos grand slam.
To set the scene for Wednesday's pivotal Game 3, we'll tell you how to watch the action and also lay out one key question for each team.
Where to watch Dodgers vs. Mets
Date: Wednesday, Oct. 16 | Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
Location: Citi Field (New York)
Channel: FS1 | Live stream: Fubo (try for free)
Probable pitchers: RHP Walker Buehler (LAD) vs. RHP Luis Severino (NYM)
Odds: LAD -115, NYM -105 | O/U: 7.5
Dodgers: Will Buehler snap out of his funk?
Not all that long ago, the right-hander Buehler looked like the Dodgers' ace of the present and future. However, he hasn't been the same since returning from a second Tommy John surgery. Buehler returned to the Dodger rotation in May of this year, but a case of hip inflammation sidelined him from mid-June until mid-August. All of those things limited Buehler to just 16 starts in his comeback season, and the results weren't promising.
In those 16 starts, the 30-year-old Buehler pitched to a 5.38 ERA and an FIP of 5.54. As well, he struck out just 18.6% of opposing batters during the 2024 regular season (his career mark was 27% coming into 2024), and he's shed some velocity on almost all his offerings. The leading concern has been Buehler's fastball, the pitch he dials up a plurality of the time. During the regular season, opposing hitters batted .342 with a .696 slug against Buehler's four-seamer, and the expected numbers weren't much better.
Related to all of this is that Buehler's lone start of this postseason did not go well. In NLDS Game 3 against the Padres, Buehler was roughed up for six runs in five innings. He allowed seven hits and struck out not one of the 24 batters he faced. Given Buehler's sustained struggles it's fair to ask whether he'd even be a part of the Dodgers' playoff rotation if they had more healthy bodies. All those pitching injuries, however, have limited them to just three healthy starters and reduced manager Dave Roberts to dialing up bullpen games all too frequently. As such, the Dodgers badly need Buehler to find something closer to his customary level on Wednesday. Recent history suggests that'll be difficult for him.
Mets: How will Severino respond to the long layoff?
The working assumption this late in the season is that extra rest is always welcome when you can happen upon it. Will that be the case for Severino, the Mets' Game 3 starter? His last start was Game 2 of the NLDS against the Phillies on Oct. 6, when he twirled a quality start en route to the Mets' lone loss of the series. That means he'll be making his Wednesday start against the Dodgers on nine days of rest.
For his career, the 30-year-old Severino has made 36 starts on six or more days of rest. In those 36 starts, he's pitched to a 4.05 ERA and a 4.52 R/G with a K/BB ratio of 2.97. When Severino has made starts on fewer than six-days' rest, or something closer to the standard four days or rest to which the contemporary starting pitcher is accustomed, he's put up an ERA of 3.85 and a 4.11 R/G with a K/BB ratio of 3.64. (Note that Severino's 16 career relief appearances are not included in these numbers.) As you can see, there's some degradation in performance when Severino gets much more than standard rest, and it's seen at both the run-prevention and command-and-control levels. It's of course possible this is just noise, but it's a consideration for Game 3.
Another potential challenge for Severino is facing a Dodgers lineup that during the regular season ranked second in MLB in OPS versus right-handed pitchers. Adjust for the run-suppressing tendencies of Dodger Stadium, and you can argue the Dodgers have baseball's most potent attack against righties.