The Milwaukee Brewers last made the postseason in 2011 -- when they lost in the National League Championship Series to the St. Louis Cardinals. This will not be the season the Brewers end their playoff drought. It should, however, be the year where Milwaukee sees the core that could form its next October-caliber squad play together for the first time.
The vitals
2016 record: 73-89
2017 depth chart: Click here
2017 schedule: Click here
Braun’s still here -- what else is?
Prince Fielder, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez are long gone. Ryan Braun, though? He remains in place as the Brewers’ franchise player. The truth is, Braun would’ve been traded by now if he wasn’t a 33-year-old with past PED ties who is owed at least $80 million over the next four seasons. Even so, Braun is still a capable middle-of-the-order bat. He posted a 136 OPS+ in 2016, giving him nine seasons over the 130-mark in 10 tries. Hitters hit, and Braun is a hitter.
The Brewers hope Eric Thames is a hitter, too. Signed from Korea to a three-year deal worth $16 million, Thames, 30, is Milwaukee’s only projected non-Braun regular older than 28. He’s coming off a season in which he hit .317/.425/.676 with 40 home runs. Thames’ production is unlikely to translate in whole back to the majors -- he had a 96 OPS+ during his previous big-league runs -- but he should be a decent platoon option at the cold corner, albeit one with approach and bat-speed concerns.
The rest of Milwaukee’s lineup is high on variability. Jonathan Villar, the 25-year-old infielder the Brewers stole from the Houston Astros, electrified onlookers by smacking 19 home runs and swiping 62 bases. He’s likely to slot in as the most-days second baseman, making room at shortstop for top prospect Orlando Arcia. Arcia’s initial exposure to the majors didn’t go well. But he’s a 22-year-old who scouts expect to provide good defense and top-of-the-lineup production. Third baseman Travis Shaw and catcher Andrew Susac -- both trade acquisitions over the past year -- will fill out the infield. Each should get the chance to prove they’re more than reserves.
Braun’s outfield mates are boom-or-bust types. Keon Broxton has serious helium on his side after a rookie season in which he notched a 107 OPS+ and showed off his above-average wheels and glove. Domingo Santana, meanwhile, had a 109 OPS+ himself -- though he’s a well-below-average fielder, even in a corner. The problem Broxton and Santana share is a spotty hit tool. Making quality contact is the most important skill a hitter can possess -- everyone builds off putting the bat on the ball -- and yet Broxton whiffed on 37.6 percent of his swings (third most in the majors) and Santana on 30.9 percent of his swings (34th most). Both showed pop and on-base skills -- but, shoot, they wouldn’t have big-league jobs if they didn’t. We’ll see if either can take the next step by reducing their swing-and-miss volume.
Halfway to a good rotation
You might’ve heard Junior Guerra’s story by now. If not, the short version goes like this: He went five years between signing a contract with an MLB team, resurfaced with the Chicago White Sox in October 2014, was claimed off waivers nearly a year later by the Brewers and joined their rotation on a permanent basis in May. From there, Guerra compiled a 152 ERA+ and 2.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio thanks to his trapdoor splitter -- batters missed on 40 percent of their swings against it. He’s 31 and missed time due to injury, but he also represents one of the league’s most intriguing trade targets if the early returns suggest last year was mostly legitimate.
Labeling Guerra the rotation’s Braun would be inaccurate. All the same, Zach Davies is sort of the rotation’s Villar -- a promising youngster who was netted in a savvy trade. Davies is short and thin and averages 90 mph on his fastball. Yet his changeup and command have allowed him to pitch to a 108 ERA+ and 3.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first 34 starts. Davies is more Jeremy Hellickson than Greg Maddux, but he’s still a nice player for a rebuilding team to have under team control through the 2021 season -- after all, the actual Hellickson will be making more than $17 million.
Chase Anderson is an older, more physical, less successful version of Davies. He has been a slightly above-average starting pitcher in his parts of three big-league seasons, tallying a 96 ERA+ and 2.53 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Anderson’s fastball sits a bump or two higher than Davies’ while his secondary pitch of choice is -- of course -- a changeup. The other big difference between Anderson and Davies is their batted-ball profiles. Anderson’s groundball percentage was 10 percentage points lower -- a stat that helps explain his home-run problems. He’s 30 and arbitration-eligible after the season, so the Brewers could trade him this summer.
Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson both have power stuff. Neither have much in the way of big-league results. Peralta salvaged his season -- and avoided being a non-tender candidate -- by tossing 61 innings of 2.92 ERA over his final 10 starts. Nelson enjoyed no such epiphany -- he allowed 60 hits and 41 runs in 51 innings over his final 10 starts. Heaven is a heartbreak away, and the bullpen is, too -- at least so far as Peralta and Nelson are concerned.
Oh, and there’s Matt Garza. How old would you guess he is -- probably 35, 36? Nope. He won’t turn 34 until November. Doesn’t he have that vesting option? Yup, it won’t though, thanks to the time he has missed. Hm. So what’s left, intrigue-wise? Just whether Garza pitches well enough to make the team, to get traded to a contender at the deadline -- perhaps with the intent of moving him to the bullpen -- and whether, at any point this season, he has a media meltdown.
The future is near
Admittedly, this Brewers roster is for the diehards -- those fans yearning for a glimpse at the future. The good news for those folks is a number of Milwaukee’s top prospects are nearing the majors. Here are the top five prospects expected to reach Miller Park in 2017, along with their rank on MLB.com’s Brewers top-30 list:
No. 1 OF Lewis Brinson
No. 2 LHP Josh Hader
No. 8 RHP Brandon Woodruff
No. 13 RHP Jorge Lopez
No. 16 OF Ryan Cordell
Things are going to be fun in Milwaukee again soon. Just not now.
Probable lineup
Jonathan VIllar, 2B
Keon Broxton, CF
Ryan Braun, LF
Eric Thames, 1B
Domingo Santana, RF
Travis Shaw, 3B
Orlando Arcia, SS
Andrew Susac, C
Bench: Manny Pina, C; Scooter Gennett, INF; Hernan Perez, UTL; Kirk Niewenhuis, OF; Jesus Aguilar, 1B.
Probable rotation
Junior Guerrera (R)
Matt Garza (R)
Zach Davies (R)
Chase Anderson (R)
Wily Peralta (R)
Probable bullpen
The Brewers signed Neftali Feliz, presumably with an eye on letting the erstwhile Texas Rangers closer take the save chances. Corey Knebel has closer stuff if he can stay healthy. Carlos Torres and Jhan Marinez were both good finds last year, and the Brew Crew hope Joba Chamberlain and Tommy Milone prove to be this year’s values.
SportsLine projection: 73-89, fourth place in the National League Central
