Major League Baseball's offseason is nearing yet another important deadline -- one that's certain to see some notable players join the free-agent ranks. Teams have until Friday, Nov. 22, to decide which arbitration-eligible players they'll tender a contract to for next season, and which they'll allow to become free agents earlier than expected.
You may have heard of the concept of "non-tendering" a player. If so (or even if not), allow us to break it down into more malleable terms. Most players become eligible for arbitration after logging three years of service time. (Some earn that designation after two years -- these are called "Super Two" players.) From there, they're afforded the opportunity to make more money than the league minimum they earned beforehand.
The downside to earning more money, if one exists, is that teams are more likely to sever ties with that player if they feel their salary outpaces their production. In turn, that can result in the player being non-tendered, or freed from their commitment to their team at no cost (financial or otherwise) to the club itself. Being non-tendered doesn't necessarily mean the player is done or useless. Last year's crop included, among others, lefty reliever Tim Hill, right-handers Spencer Turnbull and Cooper Criswell, and infielder Nick Senzel. Each had a productive 2024 in their own ways.
Just who might find themselves attempting to follow on those players' cleatprints come 2025? Below, we've highlighted 10 players we think are bubble cases. In each instance, we've rendered a prediction on whether or not the player will be tendered. It should be noted that this is more of an art than a science, and that this article uses the arbitration prizes projected by Matt Swartz's model at MLB Trade Rumors. Now, to the reason you clicked.
1. Chas McCormick, OF, Astros ($3.3 million)
McCormick is fresh off a career-worst showing that saw him lose more than 50 points from each of the triple-slash categories. His underlying measures didn't fare much better: he struck out more often and walked and barrelled the ball less often. Nonetheless, there's enough track record and upside here (even now he's sporting a career 108 OPS+) that we suspect the Astros are OK tendering him a contract and seeing if he can rebound in what will serve as his age-30 season. Prediction: Tendered
2. Alek Manoah, RHP, Blue Jays ($2.4 million)
Manoah is only two seasons removed from finishing third in Cy Young Award balloting. You can be forgiven if it feels as though far more time has elapsed. Manoah performed better this past season than he did in 2023, albeit in a limited sample. He made just five big-league appearances (and 10 overall) before succumbing to season-ending elbow surgery. Manoah is expected to miss at least the beginning of the 2025 campaign as well. The Blue Jays have several more seasons of team control on the line, suggesting that they'll keep him around through at least one more winter. Prediction: Tendered
3. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Guardians ($2.4 million)
As with the aforementioned Manoah, it's been a long two years for McKenzie. Whereas he appeared to be a building block back in 2022, he's since posted an ERA over 5.00 in 20 big-league outings. He split this past year between the majors and the minors, showing reduced velocity and command. McKenzie is now 27 years old and out of options. We could see the Guardians deciding to move on. Prediction: Non-tendered
4. Austin Hays, OF, Phillies ($6.4 million)
A logical midseason acquisition that just didn't work out as planned. Hays appeared in 22 games with the Phillies after coming over from Baltimore, hitting .256/.275/.397 (86 OPS+) and missing time because of a hamstring injury and a kidney infection. Those ailments weren't his fault, of course, but we wonder if the Phillies would prefer to redirect the money earmarked for him toward a bigger fish. Prediction: Non-tendered
5. David Bednar, RHP, Pirates ($6.6 million)
This time a year ago, Bednar was coming off consecutive All-Star Game appearances and was a prime trade candidate. The Pirates held onto him instead and … well, here he is after a season that saw every part of his statistical profile worsen. We doubt the Pirates will sever ties through a non-tender. One source we spoke to predicted a trade was more likely. Should that come to fruition, it ought to serve as a reminder to non-contenders to always move elite relievers sooner than later. Prediction: Tendered
6. Dylan Carlson, OF, Rays ($2.7 million)
The Rays added Carlson, a sensible buy-low candidate, in a minor deadline trade with the Cardinals. He started shockingly hot with Tampa Bay, posting an .836 OPS through his first 10 games that made it seem like his long-awaited breakout had arrived. He then cratered from there, hitting .212/.280/.259 in his subsequent 27 contests to round out the year. We could see this one going either way: even the Rays can afford a $2.7 million gamble, but it's hard for us to argue Carlson merits the investment given his big-league career to date. Prediction: Non-tendered
7. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, White Sox ($6.4 million)
Vaughn, the No. 3 pick in the 2019 draft, is nearing his age-27 season. My, how the time flies. Unfortunately for Vaughn, he hasn't affirmed his amateur hype. He'll embark on the new year having delivered a 101 OPS+ over the course of his first four big-league seasons. There's not much underlying reason to believe that better days are coming, though the White Sox may conclude they're fine giving him one more bite at the apple before getting serious about finding an upgrade at the cold corner. Prediction: Tendered
8. Paul Blackburn, RHP, Mets ($4.4 million)
Blackburn appeared five times for the Mets after coming over from Oakland in a deadline trade. He missed all of September and the entirety of New York's run to the NLCS after experiencing a spinal fluid leak in his back. That doesn't sound particularly pleasant to us. What's worse is that the Mets, who nailed almost all of their pitching bets last winter, might decide they'd rather have the $4 million to throw at a pitcher with a little better track record of durability. Prediction: Non-tendered
9. Akil Baddoo, OF, Tigers ($1.6 million)
Three full seasons have passed since Baddoo posted a two-win season and appeared to be a Rule 5 success story in the making. During that period, he's played in 216 games and has compiled a .619 OPS. Baddoo is still on the younger side (he celebrated his 26th birthday back in August), but we think the Tigers will pass on paying him this kind of coin -- especially after making a surprise playoff run. Prediction: Non-tendered
10. Cal Quantrill, RHP, Rockies ($9 million)
The Rockies reportedly desire to reduce their payroll ahead of next season. Shedding Quantrill's potential $9 million commitment would be one way to do that. Although he got off to a good start, he was terrible down the stretch. In seven appearances across August and September, he surrendered 23 runs on 37 hits while walking more batters (24) than he struck out (20). We doubt the Rockies will even be able to find a trade partner given Quantrill's cost, leaving them with just one option. Prediction: Non-tendered
