MLB predictions: Expert includes Dodgers, Mariners, Tigers in best futures bets for 2026 season
Here's a look at Jeff Hochman's best MLB futures bets ahead of the 2026 season
With the 2026 MLB campaign approaching, a few teams stand out for aggressively strengthening their rosters. The Dodgers and Mets, undeterred by luxury tax implications, are making bold investments that are transforming the league's competitive landscape. Their high-profile acquisitions have noticeably altered the balance of power for the upcoming season. This has created what I like to call a "Superteam Distortion"âfans and bettors are piling onto the Over for sky-high win totals (think 100+ for LA, 90+ for the Mets), swept up by big names rather than the real odds. Our analysis shows that the marginal utility of each additional dollar spent decreases quickly, and the regression risks associated with injury variance and age-related decline are severely underpriced in these marquee markets.
Conversely, the market has been slow to price in the structural improvements of mid-market franchises that have prioritized run prevention. The Detroit Tigers, having constructed perhaps the most lethal rotation in the American League with the retention of Tarik Skubal and the acquisition of Framber Valdez, represent the single largest arbitrage opportunity on the board. Here are seven MLB futures bets that could add some excitement â and maybe even a nice return â to your 2026 baseball portfolio.
Detroit Tigers Over 85.5 wins (-115) + AL Central winner (+125)
This is the strongest bet on the board. The Tigers' rotation now features Skubal (AL Cy Young favorite) and Valdez, forming a dominant 1-2 punch. Jack Flaherty (188 K's in 161 IP), Reese Olsen (3.15 ERA), and Casey Mize (3.87 ERA) will compete with returning club legend Justin Verlander for rotation spots, giving them favorable matchups against other teams' weaker third through fifth starters. In a division with the rebuilding White Sox and a regression-bound Guardians squad, Detroit's rotation provides an incredibly high floor. The bullpen is both deep and talented, featuring three effective lefties.
Retaining Skubal was the first key move; adding Valdez was the checkmate. The lineup, anchored by Riley Greene and a rapidly maturing Colt Keith, is more than sufficient to support this stellar pitching staff. Spencer Torkelson, coming off a career-best .789 OPS with 31 home runs for the second time in his career, will be a popular sleeper in Fantasy drafts. Kerry Carpenter, who hit 26 home runs in 130 games, enters his prime hitting years (ages 27â31). This is a deep, undervalued team that the market has mispriced, so let's capitalize.
Cleveland Guardians Under 80.5 wins (-115)
Every model I run signals a significant step back for Cleveland, even after its division title with 88 wins. The Guardians' 2025 success hinged on a streaky bullpen and timely hitting â both notoriously hard to repeat year after year. When Emmanuel Clase was suspended, the bullpen unraveled, which we saw happen in the playoffs. Offensively, the attack begins and ends with Jose Ramirez, and the supporting cast is full of uncertainties. Kyle Manzardo is an intriguing sleeper pick at first base, but he'll need to trim his strikeout total (135 in 142 games). I'd be surprised if the Guardians reach between 75 to 79 wins, which dovetails nicely with my bullish outlook on the Tigers for 2026.
Seattle Mariners Over 89.5 wins (-120) + AL West winner (+110)
No team in the American League can match Seattle's pitching depth. With Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller, the Mariners send out quality arms every night. Their bullpen, already top seven in ERA last year, could be even tougher this season. Brendan Donovan brings the patience and on-base skills the lineup has needed. Julio Rodriguez, now 26, has already launched 112 homers despite missing time. The win total is set right at 89.5, but the smarter play is division odds. Houston's on the decline, and the rest of the division â Texas, the Angels, Sacramento â are still looking up. Don't be surprised if the A's make things interesting.
Atlanta Braves NL East winner (+190)
While the Mets and Phillies dominate the headlines, the Braves quietly own the deepest and most balanced roster in the division. Should the Mets struggle with bullpen issues or the Phillies succumb to age and injuries, Atlanta stands as the default powerhouse in the East. Even if both rivals are at full strength, the Braves look solid on paper and have a proven track record of rebounding after a down year. The return of a healthy Austin Riley could be the catalyst for a successful season. At +190 to win the division, this appears to be tremendous value.
Los Angeles Dodgers Under 103.5 wins (-120)
The Dodgers have brought in Kyle Tucker and Edwin DÃaz, making their roster look unstoppable. Still, the projected 103.5 wins is a massive ask â historically, that's rarefied air. Hitting 104 wins means everything goes right with health, luck and performance. Even with all their talent, there's a point where adding another star doesn't guarantee more wins â it just gives you a cushion. As a lifelong Dodgers fan, I can't justify an Over bet on 103.5. In their back-to-back World Series runs, the Dodgers posted just 98 and 93 wins â proof that you don't have to chase 100-plus to be a champion. There's no need for this team to gun for a gaudy regular season total. A 100-win campaign would be outstanding and it still lands you the Under.
