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Pirates ace Paul Skenes will make his fourth start of the 2025 MLB season when the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Washington Nationals on Monday. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft is 1-1 with a 3.44 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP over three starts this season. The Pirates are 5-11 and have lost three straight games, while the Nationals are 6-9 and have dropped back-to-back contests. Brad Lord, a 25-year-old rookie, starts for the Nationals after holding the Dodgers scoreless over three innings on Tuesday. First pitch from PNC Park in Pittsburgh is set for 6:40 p.m. ET.
SportsLine's model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. Here are the MLB best bets for Nationals vs. Pirates on Monday:
Nationals money line (+168)
FanDuel Sportsbook currently has some of the best odds at +168 on Washington. Skenes' talent is undeniable, but the brand he's building around himself and his high-profile girlfriend in former LSU gymnast Olivia Dunne already has him as one of the most popular athletes in baseball. With popularity comes betting interest, and the novice bettors supporting the Pirates with Skenes on the mound creates value, according to the SportsLine model. Although the Nationals were swept by the Marlins over the weekend, they took two of three games against the star-filled Dodgers the series before. They also took two of three games against the Diamondbacks. The model projects the Nationals to win in 40% of simulations, showing decent value over the 35.6% implied odds.
Over 7.5 runs (+100)
Some sportsbooks opened this over/under at 7 runs, but now they all have moved to 7.5. BetMGM is one of the books you can still get Over 7.5 at +100 odds and the model projects the over to hit in 67% of simulations, which creates value compared to the implied odds. Lord is making his fifth MLB appearance and just his second career start. He went just three innings in his first start and Monday lineups to be a bullpen-heavy game for Washington. The Nationals have the highest bullpen ERA (6.35) in baseball. Skenes allowed five runs over six innings against the Cardinals on Tuesday, so both teams could have run-producing opportunities on Monday.
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 strikeouts (-145)
Skenes has gone Over this total in two of three games this season and five of his last seven starts dating back to the end of last season. He's thrown at least 94 pitches in all three starts this year, so the Pirates aren't concerned with keeping a lower early-season pitch count. He averaged 100 pitches over his last two starts. Skenes signed a $9.2 million signing bonus and made just 12 minor league starts before the Pirates didn't want him wasting his arm outside the majors any longer. His high strikeout potential has been evident since his MLB debut last season. BetMGM is offering the best odds at -145, while other books have his odds juiced to -160 with others moving his over/under to 7.5 strikeouts.
Want more MLB picks for Monday?
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You can also view expert betting advice before making Monday MLB picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see MLB picks from Matt Severance, an expert who is 46-23 (+1051) over his last 69 MLB picks. He already has an MLB pick out for Monday.
SportsLine expert Bruce Marshall, who is 8-2-1 over his last 11 MLB over/under picks, also has a bet he loves for Monday. Visit SportsLine now to see who Marshall is including in his Monday MLB bets.
