The Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies have ended the regular season with identical 91-71 records. That means, in keeping with ancient laws of combat, the Rockies and Dodgers on Monday will play a one-game tiebreaker for the National League West title.
Now let's break down what you need to know about Monday's determinative matchup:
NL West tiebreaker: Rockies (91-71) at Dodgers (91-71)
- Date: Monday, Oct. 1
- Time: 4:09 p.m. ET
- Location: Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Calif.
- TV channel: ESPN
- Streaming: WatchESPN
- Live stats: GameTracker
- Picks: Check SportsLine's MLB pick sheet for all your daily odds.
As noted above, the tiebreaker is at Dodger Stadium
Since the Dodgers won the season series against Colorado (the Dodgers went 12-7 against the Rockies in regular season and outscored them by a margin of 98-69), L.A. will host the tiebreaker game. Some relevant facts insofar as that is concerned:
- The Dodgers this season were actually worse at home (.543) than they were on the road (.580).
- The Rockies, meantime, had a respectable .543 winning percentage in road games this season.
- In 2018, the Dodgers went 6-3 against the Rockies at home.
- The last time these two teams met, Sept. 17-19, the Dodgers swept the Rockies in L.A.
Overall, home teams in MLB tend win about 54 percent of the time. It's an edge, yes, but it's not as substantial as the home-field advantage in, say, the NFL or NBA.
There's much at stake
Not only does the winner of Monday's tiebreaker get NL West bragging rights, but they also advance to the best-of-five NLDS against the Braves with home-field advantage. The loser, meantime, will play the loser of the NL Central tiebreaker in the NL Wild Card Game. Obviously, you want to avoid having any part of that playoff knockout game.
The potential pitching matchup is a compelling one
It seems likely that on Monday the Rockies will start German Marquez, while the Dodgers will counter with Walker Buehler. The digits on the two this season:
The 23-year-old Marquez has mid-90s velocity, and he leads with his fastball and curve. However, he also boasts a slider, sinker, and change that he can throw for strikes. As for Buehler, 24, he sits 97 with his fastball and sinker, and he keeps hitters off balance with a curve, cutter and slider.
Now for some additional numbers:
- In 35 road games (33 starts), Marquez for his career has a 3.74 ERA and 3.28 K/BB ratio. This season, he has a 2.91 ERA and 4.63 K/BB ratio in 16 starts away from Coors Field.
- For his young career, Buehler has made 11 starts and four relief appearances at Dodger Stadium, and over that span he's pitched to a 2.52 ERA and a 5.31 K/BB ratio.
- Hitters currently on the Dodgers' roster have hit a combined .188/.259/.386 in a total of 113 plate appearances against Marquez.
- Hitters currently on the Rockies' roster have hit a combined .213/.281/.339 in a total of 139 plate appearances against Buehler.
- The Dodgers this season ranked fifth in the NL with a .752 OPS at home.
- The Rockies this season ranked 14th in the NL with a .665 OPS on the road. As ever, it may come down to the Rockies' ability to put runs on the board outside of Coors Field.
The bullpens will surely be a factor
While it's not an elimination game, the stakes are certainly high. That means managers Bud Black and Dave Roberts will probably go with an all-hands-on-deck approach. In a neutral context, the two bullpens are similar in terms of quality (mostly this means adjusting for the distortive effects of Coors Field). Both are relatively healthy at the moment.
Bud Black will likely lean heavily on Adam Ottavino, Seung-hwan Oh and Scott Oberg. Of those core guys, only Oh pitched in Sunday's blowout win over the Nationals, and he threw just five pitches. Meantime, Oberg, Ottavino and Davis haven't pitched since Friday. They'll be about as fresh as you can be by the standards of late September/early October. The issue for the Rockies will be getting some reliable work from the left side. Don't be surprised if Ottavino, who tames both sides, gets the call against a left-handed bat in a key spot on Monday.
As for the Dodgers, they're without Daniel Hudson and Erik Goeddel, but otherwise Roberts will have his go-tos available. He used none of Kenley Jansen, Ryan Madson, Kenta Maeda, Dylan Floro and Scott Alexander in Sunday's bombing of the Giants. In simple terms, give the Rockies the edge when it comes to the front line and the Dodgers the edge when it comes to depth.
Also bear in mind that rested starters might also get a look. Sunday's starters Tyler Anderson and Rich Hill will presumably be unavailable.
The Dodgers are trying to join elite company
The Dodgers are trying to win their sixth straight NL West title. If they do, then they'll join the Yankees (1998-2006) and Braves (1995-2005) as the only franchises to win at least six straight division championships.
The Rockies are trying to get it done for the first time.
While Colorado will be making its fifth trip to the postseason in its relatively brief history, the Rockies have never done so via a division title. They've had just three second-place finishes, as well.