Team USA vs. Venezuela: Odds, time and everything to know about 2026 World Baseball Classic title game

After 12 days of thrilling games, the World Baseball Classic championship game has arrived. The United States outlasted the high-powered Dominican Republic to return to the title game on Sunday night. Venezuela came back to beat the underdog Italy team to punch its first-ever ticket to the WBC title game on Monday. It is fair to call Tuesday's title bout in Miami the biggest game in Venezuelan baseball history.

"I've never been to the championship of the WBC before. We get there and we're happy," Venezuela third baseman Maikel Garcia said after beating Italy. "We're excited to play tomorrow against the United States. We have to come tomorrow and play the same way we played against Japan, against Italy, and we have to show the world who Venezuela is."

Team USA will be the home team Tuesday and the game will be played on American soil, but make no mistake, it will be a pro-Venezuela crowd. Venezuelan baseball fans have showed out throughout the WBC and especially Monday night against Italy. The atmosphere will be even more electric Tuesday. Here now is what you need to know going into Tuesday's WBC Championship Game.

Team USA vs. Venezuela: Where to watch, odds

• Time: 8 p.m. ET | Date: Tuesday, March 17
• Location: loanDepot Park (Miami, Florida)
• TV channel: Fox | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
• Starting pitchers: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (VEN) vs. RHP Nolan McLean (USA)
• Odds (via FanDuel): USA -265, VEN +215, O/U: 8.5

Head-to-head history

This will not be the first time USA and Venezuela meet in the WBC. They've met five times previously, including three times in 2009 alone, when the WBC format was much different than it is now. Here is a recap of this WBC rivalry:

• 2009 Pool C Qualifier: USA 15, VEN 6
• 2009 Pool C Seeding: VEN 5, USA 3
• 2009 Pool 2 Seeding: VEN 10, USA 6
• 2017 Pool F: USA 4, VEN 2
• 2023 Quarterfinals: USA 9, VEN 7

USA and Venezuela both advanced to the semifinals in 2009 and could have met in the Championship Game, but Venezuela lost to Korea in the semifinals while USA lost to Japan. Japan then beat Korea in the title game. In 2023, Trea Turner's eighth inning grand slam turned a 7-5 deficit into USA's eventual 9-7 win over Venezuela.

All told, Team USA is 3-2 against Venezuela in the WBC and has outscored Venezuela 37-30 in the five games. And you know what? That won't matter even a tiny bit Tuesday. What happened in 2009 or 2017 or 2023 will have no bearing on what happens in 2026. Different players, different teams, different time.

USA's offense hasn't really broken out

USA blew out Brazil (15-5) and Great Britain (9-1) in pool play, which they were expected to do. In the four games since they've scored 3, 6, 5, and 2 runs. They've scored two runs in their last 12 innings, both on solo homers. For all the big names and big bats on the roster, USA's offense hasn't dominated against teams more on their level (i.e. not Brazil and Great Britain).

That won't necessarily have to change against Venezuela. Team USA is fully capable of winning a pitchers' duel (see: Sunday against the Dominican Republic), but this is a team built to punish the ball and wear down opposing pitchers. It's an offense-first roster and the offense has been good in the WBC, but not amazing. Tuesday is the last chance for USA's bats to wake up.

The bullpens may be short

It's unclear whether each team will have their go-to relievers available Tuesday given their recent workloads. This is still spring training, after all, and USA and Venezuela will not put their players at risk of injury. After the Italy game Monday, Venezuela manager Omar López joked that "even Johan Santana is going to pitch" when asked about his bullpen for the Championship Game. 

This late in the WBC, we've got a pretty good understanding of who each team's trusted late-inning relievers are. López has leaned on Eduard Bazardo, Andrés Machado, and closer Daniel Palencia. USA manager Mark DeRosa has run out David Bednar, Garrett Whitlock, and closer Mason Miller in the late innings of close games. Here are their pitch totals in recent days:

Tuesday would be back-to-back days and three times in four days for Bazardo, Machado, and Palencia. Teams don't like to use their top relievers that much during the regular season, nevermind in mid March. Lefty Angel Zerpa, López's trusted left-on-left matchup guy, would also be pitching back-to-back days and three times in four days Tuesday. His availability is in question too.

Team USA had an off-day Monday, so the Americans' top late-inning relievers had that built-in rest. Still, Tuesday would be three times in five days for Bednar, Miller, and Whitlock. That's a workload teams prefer to avoid at this point on the calendar. For what it's worth, Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Whitlock will be available to pitch in the WBC Championship Game.

My guess, and I emphasize this is only a guess, is USA will have a full bullpen with everyone available Tuesday, and Venezuela will have everyone available except Luinder Avila and Ricardo Sánchez. Avila and Sánchez both went multiple innings out of the bullpen Monday, and it's a lot to ask to pitch a second straight day after that.

For USA, righties Griffin Jax and Brad Keller are next in line to step into high-leverage work. Submarining righty Tyler Rogers, too. Venezuela's next bullpen tier includes Jose Alvarez and José Buttó. In terms of sheer pitching depth, it's advantage USA all the way.

Prediction

Our staff overwhelming picked USA to win Tuesday. I was the lone dissenter who went Venezuela and, honestly, I can't give you a great reason for that pick. Predicting one single baseball game between teams that are reasonably evenly matched is a fool's errand. This sport isn't built to be predictable. If Venezuela does win the championship, it should not be a shock. It's a very good team loaded with MLB stars, just like Team USA. I went Venezuela 6, USA 5 because, well, why not?