The Los Angeles Angels did it again Tuesday night. They went into the ninth inning facing a multi-run deficit, yet managed to turn it into a victory. The Halos beat the Texas Rangers in 10 innings (LAA 6, TEX 5) on Carlos Perez's walk-off squeeze bunt. That happened after the Angels scored three runs in the ninth inning to tie the game.
Here's video of Tuesday's comeback win, which also featured Mike Trout robbing Mike Napoli of a go-ahead home run in the top of the 10th inning:
When the ninth inning started, the Angels trailed 5-2 and had a 3.6 percent chance to win the game. They won. Amazingly, that was only the club's second-best comeback win of the week.
The Angels rallied to score seven runs in the bottom of the ninth inning Sunday to stun to Seattle Mariners (LAA 10, SEA 9). Five consecutive batters reached base with two outs -- those five batters combined to drive in five runs -- to complete the comeback.
That game ended on Cliff Pennington's walk-off single, though obviously scoring seven runs in the ninth inning takes a total team effort. Albert Pujols homered to start the rally and then drove in two with a single to tie the game later in the inning. Here's video of the massive comeback Sunday afternoon:
The Angels were down 9-3 going into that ninth inning and had a 0.2 percent chance to win the game. 0.2 percent! Their odds were 1-in-500. This was the one.
Here is what that win looks like in graph form. This win probability graph, via FanGraphs, shows each team's chances of winning the game at any given point given the score, the inning, the number of the outs, the baserunners, the whole nine. It was very much advantage Mariners going into the ninth inning, then it all swung in favor of the Angels:
Source: FanGraphs
The Angels had an off-day Monday, so Sunday's and Tuesday's wins came in back-to-back games. Winning back-to-back games by mounting huge ninth-inning rallies is incredible, though these games were not the only time the Angels have come back in the ninth to win this season. They did it on one other occasion too.
In their second game of the season, the Halos scored three runs in the top of the ninth inning April 4 against the Oakland Athletics to turn a 6-4 deficit into a 7-6 victory (box score). Danny Espinosa's three-run home run did the trick:
When that ninth inning started, the Angels had a 6.8 percent chance to win the game. So, within the first 10 days of the 2017 season, the Angels have turned win probabilities of 6.8 percent, 3.6 percent, and 0.2 percent into wins. Incredible. They have three victories when trailing after eight innings already this year. The other 29 teams combined have three.
Furthermore, the Angels came from behind to win another game, though that comeback didn't happen in the ninth inning and wasn't nearly as dramatic. They fell behind the Mariners 2-0 in the first inning Saturday and chipped away for an eventual 5-4 win (box score). It counts as a come-from-behind win though. So far this season the Angels are 6-2 with four come-from-behind wins, three with dramatic ninth-inning rallies.
It can be easy to run with the narrative that the Angels are a scrappy team that never gives up, and while I don't doubt that, it's selling them short. The Angels aren't mounting these miraculous these comebacks because they have a lot of heart and the will to come back. They have a lot of talent too. Trout and Pujols are all-time greats. Yunel Escobar and Kole Calhoun are comfortably above-average players. Bullpen arms like Cam Bedrosian and Andrew Bailey are keeping the score close.
There's also this: The Angels are lucky. You watched the first video in this post, right? Perez's bunt hugged the foul line and managed to stay fair for the walk-off win. Pennington is not normally the guy you want up with the game on the line, yet he came through Sunday. Espinosa's three-run homer against the A's was set up by an infield single by not-fleet-of-foot Jefry Marte. The Angels have gotten some breaks early on and that's OK. Every club gets breaks along the way.
The comeback wins are in the books, but here is the reality for the Angels: They need to stop falling behind so much. Banking on late-inning comebacks is no way to get through the season. They've scored first only three times in their eight games. No team is good enough to win long-term while playing from behind that often. Give the Angels a truth serum -- the players, the front office, the coaching staff, everyone -- and I'm certain they would tell you they want to do a better job building leads in the early innings going forward. That's the goal.
For now, the Angels are 6-2 and have baseball's longest active winning streak at four games. They're the hottest team in the sport, thanks largely to those miraculous comebacks Sunday and Tuesday.
