Team USA Baseball vs. Dominican Republic: Odds, prediction, what to know as Paul Skenes faces powerful lineup
The most-anticipated game of the 2026 World Baseball Classic is set for Sunday night in Miami
Fresh off their respective wins in the quarterfinals, Team USA and the Dominican Republic will go at it on Sunday in the semifinals of the 2026 World Baseball Classic. The U.S. advanced to the "final four" of the WBC with a 5-3 win over Canada on Friday. The D.R., meanwhile, mercy ruled Korea with a 10-0 romp in seven innings.
Here are the essentials for what's a true clash of WBC titans with a spot in the finals on the line:
USA vs. Dominican Republic: Where to watch, odds
- Time: 8 p.m. ET | Date: Sunday, March 15
- Location: loanDepot Park, Miami
- TV channel: FS1, Fox Deportes | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
- Starting pitchers: Paul Skenes (USA) vs. Luis Severino (D.R.)
- Odds (via FanDuel): USA -152, D.R. +126, O/U: 8.5
The D.R. offense has looked unstoppable
In the process of outscoring the opposition by a tally of 51-10 across their 5-0 record in this WBC, the Dominican Republic squadron has done everything well. The offense, though, has truly shined. (It says much that we're highlighting the offense for praise on a team that also boasts a 1.98 ERA for the tourney.) This is pretty much what was expected given the abundance of hitting stars on D.R. roster. Ponder and admire, if you will, manager Albert Pujols' starting lineup for the Korea game:
- Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
- Ketel Marte, 2B
- Juan Soto, LF
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
- Manny Machado, 3B
- Junior Caminero, DH
- Julio Rodríguez, CF
- Agustín Ramírez, C
- Geraldo Perdomo, SS
Yes, that's a player who put up a 7.0 WAR, won a Silver Slugger, and finished fourth in the NL MVP vote last season batting ninth. That gauntlet has averaged 10.2 runs per game and racked up an even 100 total bases through five games, and that's with two of the five games ending after seven innings thanks to the mercy rule ("slaughter rule" is a better term, frankly). Over those five games, the D.R. offense has batted .312/.453/.637 with 14 home runs 157 at-bats and more walks (39, all unintentional) than strikeouts (29). Six D.R. hitters have multiple home runs in the WBC.
Team USA of course has a jaw-dropping lineup, too, but the above might be even more impressive on paper. In this WBC to date, there's no doubt which attack has been more potent.
The U.S. has the starting pitcher edge
As you saw up top, the U.S. will be trotting out reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes, and he'll be tasked with keeping that juggernaut lineup in check. If anyone can do it, it's probably Skenes. Across the first 55 starts of his MLB career, the Pirates ace of aces has a 1.96 ERA, a 2.40 FIP, a 215 ERA+, and 5.22 K/BB ratio. That's utter dominance at the run-prevention level and at the command-and-control level. Skenes made his first start of this WBC during pool play, and he was dominant against a quality Mexico team. Across four innings and 60 pitches, Skenes allowed no runs on one hit -- a third-inning single by Jarren Duran -- and struck out seven against one walk. His fastball topped out at 99.7 mph, the fastest pitch thrown in that game. Yes, Skenes must face a devastating lineup, but given his stuff and track record that's just as easily re-framed as, "The Dominican Republic hitters must face one of the very best pitchers in the world."
As for the 32-year-old Severino, he's not the strongest starting pitcher the D.R. has on offer, but he's quite capable. He's coming off a 2025 season for the A's in which he had a somewhat disappointing 92 ERA+ with an FIP of 4.11. However, outside of hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park last season, Severino had a 3.02 ERA (vs. a 6.01 mark at home). Given the stakes, there's little doubt that Pujols will have a quick hook with Severino, and he may be limited to going through the opposing order only one time. In his first start of this WBC, Severino faced the Netherlands in pool play and allowed one run and three hits while striking out five over four innings.
Starting pitcher workload limits are now higher
It's worth noting that, per WBC rules, starting pitchers in the semifinals and finals are permitted to throw up to 95 pitches in a game. However, Skenes doesn't figure to reach that figure. Following Team USA's quarterfinal win, manager Mark DeRosa told reporters, including Rowan Kavner, that Skenes will probably be limited to 75 to 80 pitches, although that's not set in stone. Given Skenes' efficiency, such a count could take him deep into the game. Although, of course, that heretofore unstoppable D.R. lineup will have something to say about that. If those new limits come into play for the D.R., then Severino's outing is probably going swimmingly.
Prediction
Talk about a tough call. The guess here is that Skenes mostly keeps the big D.R. bats in check, while Team USA gets to Severino for an early lead. However, the D.R. offense mounts a comeback against the U.S. bullpen and wins a thriller to advance to the finals. Prediction: Dominican Republic 4, Team USA 3
