What can we expect from Paul Skenes in his sophomore season? How Pirates phenom can get even better in 2025

A new Major League Baseball season is just around the corner. The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs will technically kick off the year tomorrow, beginning a two-game set in Tokyo, Japan. The rest of MLB will then get in on the action on March 27, the league's official Opening Day.

One of the most compelling storylines entering the new season concerns Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes. He's fresh off an outstanding freshman campaign that saw him start the All-Star Game despite having only debuted in mid-May. Skenes went on to win the Rookie of the Year Award and finish third in Cy Young balloting -- a remarkable feat given, again, that he had a month and a half less to work with than any other pitcher who received serious consideration. 

Who could blame the voters? After all, Skenes compiled a 1.96 ERA (214 ERA+) and a 5.31 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 23 appearances. His contributions were worth an estimated 5.9 Wins Above Replacement, according to Baseball Reference. Moreover, he became a walking fun fact. Here's one: did you know that he recorded more starts in which he didn't allow a hit (three) than he did in which he surrendered more than three runs (one)? That seems wrong but it's not, and that kind of dizzying dominance is why Skenes is among the league's most magnetic talents.

With all that in mind, we here at CBS Sports wanted to take one more look back at Skenes' rookie season before attempting to answer the obvious question: can he get even better? 

Come with us as we traverse this matter across three conveniently labeled subheadings.

1. How good was Skenes?

We covered Skenes' statistics from last year above. Now, let's contextualize them. First, though, let's acknowledge that there are many different methods one can use to analyze pitchers, let alone to compare them across eras. There is no one perfect way of doing this, and that means reasonable people operating in good faith can manage to disagree on the particulars. 

For our purposes here, we're focusing on a simple argument that Skenes had the greatest rookie season by any pitcher since the league expanded to 30 clubs ahead of Opening Day 1998.

Paul Skenes

PIT • SP • #30

ERA1.96

WHIP.95

IP133

BB32

K170

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Our argument is "simple" because it relies on just one metric: ERA+, or ERA that's adjusted for ballpark and other variables and is scaled to 100. (The league-average mark is 100 and the higher the number the better.) No, it doesn't take into account a pitcher's strikeout and walk rates, or their ball-tracking data, or their pitch quality, or any of that more advanced stuff. 

Again, we told you that this is the "simple" argument. Take it at face value, ignore it, spruce it up, do whatever you want. No matter, the crux is that Skenes' 214 ERA+ was the highest among any rookie with at least 100 innings thrown since Cal Eldred in 1992.  

Want to play the anecdotal game? Consider that Skenes' ERA+ was higher than Francisco Liriano and José Fernández and every other hotshot young pitcher to ascend to instant stardom across the past three decades. His ERA+ was higher -- much higher -- than any figure put forth by Fernando Valenzeula during his storied big-league career. His ERA+ was higher than Dwight Gooden's rookie ERA+ (though not as high as he managed in his second season). And so on and so forth. 

Of course, you don't have to find value in any of this to declare that Skenes had a great rookie season. Many smart analysts don't look at ERA or ERA+ anymore. But we promised an easy argument in favor of Skenes having an historic rookie season, and this is as simple as it gets.. 

2. Is there a way to improve?

You wouldn't think so given that Skenes' Baseball Savant page is full of red. Meanwhile, his Baseball Reference page would feature a lot of black ink if he had qualified. That -- shouldering a larger workload over a full season -- is the most obvious area for improvement to these eyes. Beyond that, it's hard to find much to nitpick about him or his rookie effort. 

Yet it seems clear that Skenes is serious about exhausting all routes, demonstrating in the process that he deserves high marks for his adaptability and ambition. Keep in mind that this is the same Skenes who, not content to be the No. 1 pick and the game's top pitching prospect, stumbled across an elite sinker last spring that helped transform him into an instant ace-level performer. 

Now, Skenes is again trying to add to his arsenal -- this time by experimenting with a cutter and two-seamer. 

"We're going to throw it either way," Skenes said after a recent outing. "If you come out of the game with 23 pitches, that means you were throwing it in the zone and you were getting outs with it. I wasn't doing that super efficiently today. That's kind of the one thing I'd say to that. That stuff will happen. Weak contact found holes and with some of those new pitches, it just kind of is what it is a little bit."

Pitchers often use spring training as a sandbox of sorts, toying with new or tweaked grips to see what works. There's no guarantee Skenes actually carries his new offerings into the season, at least not in the kind of priority role that his sinker merited last season. Even so, it speaks well of him that he's continuing to work at his craft to extract any potential advantage or improvement he can.

3. Will this season be better?

When you get right to the heart of baseball, the sport is a clash between human willpower and larger statistical forces. Great performers are, then, always beating back against the probabilities that govern the sport as a whole. Skenes will be no exception in that regard, but in order to produce a better season (as determined by ERA+) he'll need to be an outlier in another way.

Remember the numbers we presented in the first subhead -- specifically, the great rookie starting pitching performances since 1995? Let's revisit the nine other top performers, detailing their careers and answering whether they ever actually fared better than in their freshman seasons.

• Francisco Liriano: It's fair to write that Liriano didn't perform better in his second season than his first, if only because he required Tommy John surgery and didn't pitch the subsequent year. He would return and have a quality career, but he never reached the same heights that he soared at during his first real run in the majors. Did he improve? No.
• Jered Weaver: Weaver did pitch his second season, developing into a workhorse starter who received Cy Young Award consideration on three different occasions. His ERA+ dipped from 177 to 116 between his first and second seasons, however, and, as with Liriano, he never quite matched his initial output (at least as judged by ERA+). Did he improve? No.
• José Fernández: Fernández had his career interrupted by injury after his outstanding rookie showing, limiting him to 19 combined starts over the subsequent two years following his introduction to The Show. He remained brilliant, albeit, again, unable to match his rookie year ERA+ before dying in a boating accident in late September 2016. Did he improve? No.
• Michael Soroka: You might start to notice a pattern here. Soroka has dealt with so many physical issues since his great 2019 campaign that he's actually started fewer games in the five seasons since than he did in that year alone. Did he improve? No. 
• Roy Oswalt: Oswalt's career arc is comparable to Weaver's: he remained a high-caliber starting pitcher for years to come after his rookie effort. He never did reach the same ERA heights, but he did log seven 200-inning seasons and receive Cy Young Award consideration on six occasions. Did he improve? No.
• Brandon Webb: Webb is a combination of the two themes at play so far. He put forth five more strong seasons before succumbing to injury. He never topped his rookie season ERA+, but he came close on a few occasions and won a Cy Young Award as a result. Did he improve? No.
• Trevor Rogers: You may have forgotten how good Rogers was in 2021. Unfortunately, he hasn't been nearly as good since. Did he improve? No.
• José Rosado: Another promising start to a career that veered in the wrong direction. Rosado notched two All-Star Game appearances before his 25th birthday. He then pitched in just five more MLB games for his career after tearing his labrum. Did he improve? No.

That's a lot of no's, some because of injury, others simply because it's hard to remain an elite-level performer when judged against all of baseball. It's wholly possible, then, that Skenes has a better season in other ways -- like throwing more innings and further improving his arsenal -- without it actually transferring into a better ERA (and therefore ERA+). So, is it possible for Skenes to do better in Year Two? It just depends on how you approach it.