For the first time since their World Series championship season in 2015, the Kansas City Royals went to the postseason in 2024. They swept the Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card Series and held them to one run in two games. The Royals then lost to the ALDS to the New York Yankees in four games. A disappointing end, to be sure, but it was a successful season for Kansas City.
The Royals returned to the postseason in 2024 after losing a franchise-record 106 games in 2023. Ignoring the 2020 pandemic season, the 2024 Royals and 2017 Minnesota Twins are the only teams to reach the postseason the year after losing 100 games. There are more postseason spots than ever these days, but still, going from 100 losses one year to the postseason the next is a remarkable accomplishment.
How did the Royals do it? It starts with the players already on the roster, namely franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., captain and stalwart catcher Salvador Perez, and 2023 trade deadline addition Cole Ragans. That's the core of a pretty good team. The Royals then went out last offseason and spent money to supplement that core. A lot of money too. They raised payroll by approximately $25 million to $115.3 million, their highest since 2018 ($122.2 million).
Here are last winter's major-league free-agent signings:
| Player | Years | Dollars | 2024 WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
SP Seth Lugo | 3 (opt out after Year 2) | $45 million | +5.3 |
SP Michael Wacha | 2 (opt out after Year 1) | $32 million | +3.5 |
UTIL Garrett Hampson | 1 | $2 million | +0.4 |
UTIL Adam Frazier | 1 (plus mutual option) | $4.5 million | +0.3 |
OF Hunter Renfroe | 2 (opt out after Year 1) | $13 million | +0.0 |
RP Chris Stratton | 2 (opt out after Year 1) | $4 million | -0.7 |
RP Will Smith | 1 | $5 million | -0.9 |
The Royals did not hit on all of last offseason's signings. Their bullpen additions (Stratton and Smith) were so bad that they had to trade for Lucas Erceg and forgotten man Hunter Harvey at the trade deadline. The Royals hit very big on Lugo and Wacha though. Lugo will get Cy Young votes and Wacha was a top-25 starter by WAR. Those were significant additions.
No one bats 1.000 in this game, but take enough swings, and you'll run into a few homers. The Royals knocked it out of the park with Wacha and especially Lugo, and it got them to the postseason. It starts with the players already on the team. The Witts and Perezes and Raganses. Spend some money and supplement your core, and it doesn't have to take years to get back to the playoffs. It can happen next year, even after losing 100 games.
With that in mind, here are four teams that could follow Kansas City's blueprint, spend some money this offseason to support their core, and make a run at a postseason berth in 2024.
1. Cincinnati Reds
2024 record: 77-85. They finished 12 games back of a wild-card spot and 16 games back in the NL Central. Given the competition, the Reds may have a better chance to win the NL Central in 2025 than secure a wild-card spot.
2025 payroll estimate: $87.0 million per Cot's Baseball Contracts, including arbitration projections. Cincinnati had a $111.4 million payroll as recently as 2022, and they peaked with a $126.7 million payroll in 2019. Almost $40 million gone in six years. Sheesh.
Who's the young core? Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene, for starters. De La Cruz is simply one of the most exciting players in the game, and Greene is coming into his own as a frontline starter. They were both among the top 10 National League players in WAR this past season. In addition to De La Cruz and Greene, there's also Matt McLain, who missed 2024 with a shoulder injury after being a 3.7 WAR rookie in 2023. Andrew Abbott, TJ Friedl, Nick Lodolo, Rhett Lowder, and Spencer Steer all have a place on a contender's roster. The Reds have a really, really impressive talent base.
What do they need? More than anything, a corner outfielder who can slug. Cincinnati's outfielders had a .682 OPS in 2024, the seventh worst in baseball. Friedl's a nice player, but he hit cleanup 32 times this past season, and no. Just no. He's completely miscast in that role. The Reds aren't going to win a bidding war for Juan Soto, but what about Anthony Santander? A legit middle of the order outfield bat is needed. Then you have the usual bullpen help, pitching depth, and bench players.
Should they spend? Of course they should. And, to their credit, the Reds spent last offseason. They tried to pull a Royals, but failed. Nick Martinez was terrific. So terrific that he opted out of his contract after the season. Jeimer Candelario and Emilio Pagán were whiffs though, and Frankie Montas did not move the needle in a way commensurate with his $16 million salary. The Reds spent last offseason, which suggests they could do it again. They just have to do a better job of it.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
2024 record: 76-86. One game worse than the Reds. Similarly, their path to the postseason might be winning the division rather than beating out multiple NL East and NL West powerhouses for a wild-card spot.
2025 payroll estimate: $72.2 million per Cot's Baseball Contracts, including arbitration projections. That's down from $86.4 million to begin 2024 and well south of the franchise record $99.9 million payroll in 2016. Surely there's room to spend here, right?
Who's the young core? Paul Skenes is already an ace and in the conversation for the best pitcher in baseball. Jared Jones and Mitch Keller give Pittsburgh a sneaky nice front three in the rotation. Ke'Bryan Hayes has been unable to achieve liftoff, though Bryan Reynolds is very productive and there were long stretches last season when Oneil Cruz appeared to be figuring things out. Joey Bart looks like a keeper behind the plate as well. It starts with Skenes, the best young pitcher in baseball and maybe the best pitcher in baseball period.
What do they need? The Pirates really need a first baseman and a DH, and the offensive production you expect from those positions. First base in particular was a black hole in 2024. Offensively and defensively. Pennsylvania native Christian Walker would be a wonderful fit in the cleanup spot and at first base. If Pete Alonso's market collapses into the one year plus player options range a la Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman last offseason, the Pirates should be all over it.
Pittsburgh could also use an outfield bad and a veteran innings guy just make life a little easier when the inevitably have to monitor Skenes' and Jones' workloads next year. Michael Wacha, one of Kansas City's big additions this year, would fit well. The Pirates could also use bullpen help the same way every team could use bullpen help. A first baseman, an outfielder, a DH, an innings dude. That should -- should -- be on the shopping list this offseason.
Should they spend? Of course they should. Pittsburgh's window is open only as long as Skenes and Jones are healthy, and Jones already missed time with an injury in 2024. Building around pitching is very risky -- even the most durable looking starters with the cleanest mechanics get hurt -- but the Pirates have done it, and that should increase their urgency. You can't sit around and wait for more prospects to arrive. Skenes and Jones are healthy and pitching well right now. Who knows how much longer that will be the case? Such is life with pitchers.
3. (Sacramento) Sacramento Athletics
2024 record: 69-93. They finished 17 games back of a postseason berth. Hey, that's a 19-win improvement from 2023, and the A's did go 39-37 in their final 76 games this year. That's close to half a season of .500 ball (i.e. not being a complete pushover).
2025 payroll estimate: $30.7 million per Cot's Baseball Contracts, including arbitration projections. The A's do not have a single player under contract in 2025. They have a handful of arbitration-eligible players and a bunch of guys in their pre-arbitration years making the league minimum. The Athletics had a $92.2 million payroll as recently as 2019.
Who's the young core? I wouldn't necessarily call it young -- Brent Rooker is already 30 and JP Sears will turn 29 just before spring training -- but there is talent here. Lawrence Butler is the best hitter you've never heard of, former No. 4 overall pick JJ Bleday seems to be figuring things out, Zack Gelof and Tyler Soderstrom are entrenched on the right side of the infield, top prospect Jacob Wilson debuted this summer, and Shea Langeliers slugged 29 homers from behind the plate. There's a nifty little team here.
What do they need? A third baseman and pitching, then some more pitching, and a little more pitching after that. This past season, they brought in Ross Stripling and Alex Wood as low-upside rotation fodder and the A's should aim higher this year. It won't be easy. The Athletics are moving to a Triple-A ballpark in Sacramento, and I can't imagine many free agents will be eager to sign up for that situation without a large overpay. In a vacuum, I'd like to see the A's roll the dice on someone like Yoán Moncada at third, and guys like Matthew Boyd and Yusei Kikuchi for the rotation. There's a chance for real impact there.
Should they spend? Of course they should. There is basically zero chance they will spend, however. In fact, it's more likely the A's cut payroll from last year's $61.3 million Opening Day number (presumably by trading Rooker) than they are to add payroll. Then again, they are moving to Sacramento and need to give the locals a reason to pay attention. Maybe owner John Fisher surprises us and invests in his product, and lives up to his end of the unspoken agreement between teams and fans (fans pay attention and spend money, the team puts a good product on the field).
4. Washington Nationals
2024 record: 71-91. The Nationals have very little chance to win the NL East any time soon. They share a division with three big spending powerhouses. A wild-card spot is the more realistic goal and Washington finished 18 games back in 2024.
2025 payroll estimate: $76.8 million per Cot's Baseball Contracts, including arbitration projections. Patrick Corbin's onerous contract is finally off the books. The Nationals had a $125.4 million Opening Day payroll in 2024. It was $183.1 million in 2021 and $197.2 million in 2019, the year they won the World Series. We know this team can spend when it wants to.
Who's the young core? Outfielders Dylan Crews and James Wood are the centerpieces, though Wood might be headed to first base or DH before long. CJ Abrams had a rough second half, one that saw him get demoted to the minors for violating team rules, but he was an All-Star in 2024. MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, and DJ Herz look like rotation keepers. Top prospect Brady House figures to make his debut at some point next year and take over at third base.
What do they need? They need a bona fide ace, something the Pirates and Reds (to name two other teams in this post) have but the Nationals do not. Washington has a history of spending big on Scott Boras clients, including Max Scherzer's record-setting contract 10 years ago. Could they do the same with Corbin Burnes now? If not Burnes, it's still worth investing in frontline guy like, say, Blake Snell or Sean Manaea. Washington could also use one more bat, with first base the easiest spot to upgrade depending where Wood winds up. And, of course bullpen help. You can never have enough good relievers.
Should they spend? Of course they should. The Nationals were supposed to take a step forward in 2024, right? They went 71-91 in 2023, including a respectable 37-37 in their final 74 games, and we all thought OK, here come the Nationals. They're ready to make some noise. Then they finished with the same 71-91 record in 2024. Disappointing. Crews is up, Wood is up, House will be up soon. The prospects did their part. Now it's time for ownership to again invest in the team to improve the roster around the young players, and get Washington back to October.