The National League Cy Young Award won't be handed out until after the conclusion of the World Series, but Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper let the world know who he would vote for on Tuesday night if he had a say in such matters. Predictably, it's a certain someone he shares a clubhouse with.
"Yeah, I mean, he's Cy Young," Harper said of teammate Zack Wheeler after the Phillies' victory over the Milwaukee Brewers in what may serve as a potential playoff series preview. "It's not even a question now, just the way he's kind of throwing, the way he's been doing it all year long. He deserves it -- he deserved it three years ago, or two years ago, too, and they robbed him of it, so he deserves it this year, no doubt."
Wheeler, for his part, had just authored his latest gem. In seven innings, he surrendered one run on four hits and no walks. He also struck out six of the 24 batters he faced. His seasonal ERA is now down to 2.56.
Furthermore, Wheeler enters Wednesday ranked second in the NL in innings pitched, second in ERA (among qualified pitchers), second in Wins Above Replacement, and second in generic pitcher wins (which aren't particularly valuable, as modern analysis has shown, but still may factor into the equation for a certain bloc of voters).
There's no denying that Wheeler has had a great season -- so, what does his Cy Young Award candidacy look like? Our Matt Snyder identified Atlanta Braves lefty Chris Sale as the favorite to win the NL's Cy Young about a month ago. At the time, he wrote the following of Mr. Wheeler: "He's the ace of the best team in the league and has helped hold that rotation up through injuries and inconsistency here in the last two months."
Unfortunately for Wheeler, the pitcher ahead of him in ERA, Wins Above Replacement, and wins is … well, Sale. Wheeler does have the innings edge over Sale, having thrown 14 more frames to date, but that gap seems unlikely to prevail given the differences in ERA and WAR. Here's a head-to-head comparison between the two in several notable categories:
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | ERA+ | WAR | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale | 172.2 | 2.35 | 177 | 6.3 | 17 |
Zack Wheeler | 186.2 | 2.56 | 159 | 5.4 | 16 |
There is a certain irony to Sale likely being the one to deprive Wheeler of the Cy Young Award. Sale has, throughout his career, filled the same role as Wheeler: outstanding starter who just never seems to land the hardware. This winter seems likely to be the sixth time Sale finishes in the top five of Cy Young voting; comparatively, this will mark Wheeler's second time. Sale's number figures to get called this winter; if there's any justice in these kinds of things, Wheeler's will eventually, too.
As for Harper's claim that Wheeler was "robbed" of a previous Cy Young Award -- that would be the 2021 edition, when he lost out to Corbin Burnes by 10 points. Wheeler had a worse ERA than Burnes, but maintained significant advantages in both Wins Above Replacement and innings pitched.