Free agency is underway, and it is already crazy: LeBron James is a Laker and Paul George is not, as he announced his plans at a party in Oklahoma City. Outside of that, a whole lot of other stuff has happened, including Trevor Ariza going to the Phoenix Suns and the San Antonio Spurs are apparently refusing to rebuild.
Here are 20 takes on the landscape of the league:
1. Is anybody outside of OKC excited about this George partnership continuing? I was really high on the Thunder going into last season, but they just never sustained a level of play beyond "pretty good." I can buy that a trio of Russell Westbrook, George and Steven Adams can do damage, and I like that the front office paid Jerami Grant, but I'd like to see the team dynamics change. They need more of a cohesive system and more two-way players, and I'm just not sure how much we should expect to be different next season, aside from a healthy Andre Roberson improving the defense.
2. The madness isn't over yet. The Kawhi Leonard. saga is absolutely fascinating, and the Los Angeles Lakers could turn into a superteam of sorts if he joins LeBron. Kemba Walker and Kevin Love could be traded. The Raptors, Blazers and Wizards could do anything. The Kings could do something insane. There is much maneuvering to be done.
3. If there is even a whiff of turmoil or discontent within the Warriors next season, the Kevin Durant speculation is going to be annoying. He has nothing to prove in Golden State! Doesn't he want to lead his own team? Warriors fans don't *really* love him! What if he teams up with LeBron? This is the cost of doing a one-plus-one deal rather than something more long-term.
4. DeAndre Jordan makes the Mavericks make sense. I am well aware that his age means he might not be a long-term fit -- and that's surely part of why he only agreed to sign for one year -- but this team needed someone like him. If Dirk Nowitzki moves to the bench, a starting five of Dennis Smith, Luka Doncic, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes and Jordan allows everyone to play a role commensurate to his ability. If Dirk wants to start at 4, Matthews can come off the bench. The presence of Dwight Powell means Dallas can play a good rim runner for 48 minutes every night if that's what Rick Carlisle wants, and Jordan will be the defensive anchor that Nerlens Noel was supposed to be. The West is way too tough to project the Mavs as a playoff team, but they should at the very least be competitive and provide a blueprint for success in the Doncic era. (Related point: We say this every year, but holy crap the West is going to be ridiculous. Nobody is tanking, and even the lottery teams seem like they'll be much more entertaining than they were last season.)
5. If I was running a front office, I would stay as far away from DeMarcus Cousins as possible. He is recovering from an injury that can ruin careers, and the risk just isn't worth it. The one exception would have been the Lakers, before they landed LeBron -- if they had reason to believe that reaching a short-term deal with him would increase their chances of getting LeBron, it was a no-brainer. Now, not so much. I have no idea where he will end up, and the Pelicans were pretty clearly better last season after they replaced him with Nikola Mirotic and Emeka Okafor.
6. Trevor Ariza might regret this. The 2017-18 Houston Rockets were one of the best teams in recent NBA history, and rather than trying to take down the Warriors again -- or joining them -- he decided to jump ship to … Phoenix? I will never criticize a player for doing what's best for himself financially, but I wonder what Houston's best offer was and how Ariza will feel about this once the season gets going. While it is possible he will love being the adult in the room with an up-and-coming Suns team, the opportunity cost here was pretty significant: the chance to play meaningful basketball games in May and maybe June.
7. The Rockets really need to keep Luc Mbah a Moute. Golden State should try to poach him.
8. The Fred VanVleet deal was a bargain for the Raptors. Happy Canada Day! Some smart team should have swooped in and tried to pay VanVleet like a starter, and I wonder if the Ariza deal eliminated his best landing spot outside of Toronto. (Phoenix doesn't even have a point guard on its roster after releasing Tyler Ulis, unless you count Brandon Knight as a point guard.) Despite getting some Sixth Man of the Year buzz and turning into every basketball nerd's favorite player last season, it still feels like VanVleet is a bit underrated. He's one of the best defenders at his position despite almost always being at a height disadvantage, and he's a smart, crafty offensive player who can play with and without the ball. From the Raptors' perspective, this kind of contract was an ideal outcome because of both the money and the years -- it comes off the books in 2020, so they will still have all sorts of financial flexibility that summer.
9. One thought I keep coming back to: Is there any chance Isaiah Thomas would consider going back to the Suns for a season?
10. The Spurs are not acting like a team that is about to blow it all up. Paying $12 million for two years of Marco Belinelli services seems like a bit of an overpay and paying $10 million for one year of Rudy Gay is fine … as long as you're a playoff team. Maybe San Antonio truly thinks it can bring back Leonard. Maybe it looked at its 47-35 record last season, with Leonard barely playing, and decided that it will be pretty good even if he is traded. I guess the fact that these aren't long-term deals means the front office could theoretically still decide to tear it all down at some point. It's just a bit weird that the Spurs are in the NBA's murky middle right now.
11. Shoutout to the Brooklyn Nets, who quietly made two nice deals with Ed Davis (one year, $4.4 million) and Joe Harris (two years, $16 million). They are both quality rotation players, and the loss of the dependable Davis will hurt the Portland Trail Blazers next season -- Damian Lillard is heartbroken. Considering how desperate the league is for wings, it's a little surprising Harris didn't find a richer, longer offer. The best part of this for Brooklyn is that Davis and Harris can be valuable in two different ways: they will help the team continue to grow as long as they're on the roster, and their team-friendly contracts mean that they could both be candidates to be traded to contending teams for draft picks.
12. Of course Tom Thibodeau's front office re-signed Derrick Rose right away. Considering that the Timberwolves are going to lose Jamal Crawford and perhaps Nemanja Bjelica in free agency, I am officially worried about their lack of shooting. Minnesota seemed smart when it nabbed Josh Okogie and Keita Bates-Diop and in the draft, but it still has some stuff to figure out in terms of balancing the roster.
13. Ersan Ilyasova going back to the Bucks (for three years and $21 million) is basically a gift to Mike Budenholzer, who values shooting as much as any coach in the league. It also seems like a bad sign for Jabari Parker's future in Milwaukee -- not only is Ilyasova's best position power forward, it looks like the Bucks are about to be hard-capped.
14. On Twitter, Zach LaVine laughed at the idea of re-signing in Chicago four years and $60 million, so his restricted free agency is already interesting. Among LaVine, Parker, Marcus Smart, Dante Exum, Julius Randle and Jusuf Nurkic, the restricted free agent market is extremely unpredictable. Aaron Gordon got his money and Clint Capela will almost certainly get his, but beyond that some players are going to have to take less than they want or bet on themselves by taking the qualifying offer.
15. Speaking of restricted free agents, how much would a team have to pay Montrezl Harrell in order to steal him from the Clippers? They love him, but they are trying to keep their cap sheet clean in 2019 and 2020.
16. If you're wondering why the Indiana Pacers are going to invest $22 million in Doug McDermott, go back and watch what he did in Dallas. McDermott has his McDeficiencies, sure, but he is the kind of player who can energize an offense. He never stops moving, and he made an insane 49.4 percent of his 3s with the Mavericks. Indiana didn't have anybody with his kind of gravity on the roster.
17. Omri Casspi joining the Memphis Grizzlies (for one year on a veteran minimum deal) jibes with their plan of trying to get back in the playoffs next season. Let's just hope that he is more willing to shoot 3s than he was in his 53 games with the Warriors.
18. The Pistons are taking a bunch of shots with young wings. Their deal with Glenn Robinson III (two years, $8.3 million) follows them coming away from draft night with Khyri Thomas and Bruce Brown. There is no guarantee that any of these guys will become the players Detroit is hoping they will be, but if there's one type of player NBA teams should be trying to develop, it's the long, athletic, versatile wing.
19. Funny how the Kentavious Caldwell-Pope deal came together right after James chose the Lakers. Giving him a one-year, $12 million contract preserves Los Angeles' flexibility next summer and helps solidify the roster right away. He is the kind of two-way role player that the team needs, and now you have to wonder who else is going to join the party. I like the idea of Channing Frye coming back -- there is a large body of evidence that his floor spacing fits nicely next to James.
20. One under-the-radar free agent that could help a lot of teams offensively: Seth Curry.
