After two weeks of thrilling action, the first round of the 2024 NBA playoffs is nearly complete. All that remains is one game -- Game 7 between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic, the Nos. 4 and 5 seeds in the Eastern Conference, respectively. That matchup is set for Sunday afternoon at 1 p.m. ET.
The Magic kept their season alive on Friday night with a dramatic fourth-quarter comeback in which they outscored the Cavaliers 30-18 in the final frame to withstand a 50-point effort from Donovan Mitchell. That was the second game in a row that went down to the wire after the two teams traded blowouts in the first four games.
What will Sunday have in store? Here are seven storylines for Game 7:
1. Home sweet home
There's an old adage that a playoff series doesn't actually start until a road team wins a game. In that case, this series may never officially begin. The home teams are a perfect 6-0 so far, with the Cavaliers winning Games 1, 2 and 5, and the Magic taking Games 3, 4 and 6.
Perhaps the biggest question for Game 7, then, is whether the Cavs can keep that trend going. History would say yes. There have been 148 Game 7s in NBA history, and the home team has won 111 of them for a .750 winning percentage. However, it's worth noting that road teams are 6-3 in Game 7s in the last three seasons, which suggests that homecourt advantage is not as important as it once was in these situations.
2. A drought will end, one way or another
The Cavaliers and Magic have similar histories in many ways. Both have had been blessed with once-in-a-generation talents throughout the years, but have watched them depart in order to find team success, both are well-versed in playoff heartbreak and both are in the middle of lengthy series-win droughts.
The Magic haven't won a series since 2010, when they swept the Charlotte Bobcats and Atlanta Hawks to reach the Eastern Conference finals. As for the Cavaliers, they hadn't taken a series since 2018, when they got past the Indiana Pacers, Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics to get to the NBA Finals.
At 14 years, Orlando has the fourth-longest active drought in the league. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are tied for the eighth-longest barren spell. One way or another, one of these teams is finally going to advance to the second round of the playoffs on Sunday afternoon.
3. Will Allen return?
At some point in the Cavaliers' Game 4 loss, Jarrett Allen had a rib "pierced" by an elbow from Franz Wagner, according to The Athletic. It remains unclear exactly when this happened, as he remained in for the rest of the game, but it may have been in the middle of the third quarter.
Though this play looks rather innocuous, Allen does take an elbow from Wagner as he cuts through the lane.
Went back and watched the second half of Cavs-Magic Game 4 to try and figure out when Jarrett Allen bruised his rib.
— Josh Poloha (@JorshP) May 1, 2024
Looks as though it might have happened at the 7:34 mark of the third quarter. Franz Wagner elbowed JA and it was clearly bothering him the following possession. pic.twitter.com/X8nXYNxn6Z
In any case, Allen was unable to suit up for Games 5 and 6, which was a big loss for the Cavaliers. After controlling the first two games at home, they barely won Game 5, and then fell in Game 6. Allen had arguably been Cleveland's best player early in the series, averaging 17 points, 13.8 rebounds and a block per game on 67.6% shooting.
If he can't go in Game 7, that will be a major loss to the Cavaliers' hopes of advancing.
"When you do something to your core, any part of your core, I mean that discomfort leads to the breathing piece," Cavaliers head coach J.B. Bickerstaff said. "But more the movement and controlling yourself and how you change directions and all those things and raise your arms.
"So many things that are part of basketball. You have to use your core and when that rib is bothering you, it's hard to do all those things."
4. The battle on the glass
One key on-court issue that stems directly from Allen's availability is rebounding, particularly the offensive glass. While not the most exciting aspect of the game, it plays a major factor in who wins. In five of the six games, the team that has scored more second-chance points has won the game.
The Magic, given their size and poor shooting ability, rely heavily on getting to the boards and creating extra opportunities. They were seventh in the league in offensive rebounding rate (29.7) during the regular season and 11th in second-chance points at 14.4 per game. In their three wins in the series, they're averaging 12.3 offensive rebounds and 17 second-chance points, and they completed their Game 6 comeback in large part because of their work in that department down the stretch.
Allen is the Cavaliers' best rebounder, and if he's not able to go in Game 7 that will be an area to watch.
5. Can anyone make a 3-pointer?
Though the Cavaliers have more options and, ironically, had their best stretch of the season when injuries forced them to go all-in on spacing and shooting, neither of these teams are all that keen on the 3-pointer.
Cleveland's numbers are somewhat juiced by that mid-season run when they were taking over 40 3s a game for two months, and they still only finished ninth in the league in attempts (36.8) and 15th in percentage (36.7%). Orlando, meanwhile, played like it was a different era and ranked 29th in attempts (31.3) and 24th in percentage (35.2).
It's no surprise, then, that the outside shooting in this series has been rough. No team has made more than 13 triples in a game, and they are a combined 114-of-387 (29.5%). If either team can knock down a few shots in Game 7, that will likely swing things in their favor.
Save for Game 1, when they tied with eight 3s, the team that has made more 3s has won every game.
6. Paging close-out game Donovan Mitchell
Early in his career, Donovan Mitchell built a reputation as a playoff riser thanks to incredible moments such as scoring 38 points in a series-clinching Game 6 win in the first round for the Utah Jazz as a rookie, and his exploits in the bubble, when he dueled with Jamal Murray.
In recent years, though, his credentials have been questioned. He seemed disinterested in playing defense in Utah's first-round exit in 2022 -- his last season with the team -- and he had a rough series last season as the Cavs were dispatched in five games.
This series has been up and down. He was awesome in Game 1, had some stinkers in the middle games, then bounced back to drop 50 on the road in Game 6 and join Wilt Chamberlain, Michael Jordan and Allen Iverson as the only players in NBA history with three or more 50-point playoff games.
Which version of Mitchell will show up in Game 7? The Cavaliers will hope it's close-out game Donovan. In his career, Mitchell has played in seven games where his team had a chance to close out a series. He's scored at least 30 points in five of them and is averaging 33.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.3 assists on 53% shooting from the field.
7. Keeping emotions in check
Game 7s are nervy and often low-scoring affairs. Just 39 of the 148 Game 7s in NBA history have seen both teams score over 100 points in regulation, and given how this series has gone, it's hard to imagine that Sunday's matchup is going to join that club.
Both teams are filled with young players, many of whom will be playing in their first career Game 7. How they handle the pressure will be fascinating to watch, especially considering the back-and-forths that have taken place in this extremely physical series.
"We know all those guys over there," Jalen Suggs said after Orlando's Game 4 win, which featured multiple technical fouls and a flagrant on Max Strus. "We played them growing up. ... It just gets chippy. That's just what you want. That shows competitors when you can continue to see somebody, continue to play somebody and the tone never changes. The attitude never changes.
"You still want to go prove a point. That's what a lot of these playoffs are about. It's about who can withstand, who can maintain energy, their competitiveness, their will to win."
