NBA futures: Is Jalen Duren the best bet for 2025-26 NBA Most Improved Player?

No member of the Detroit Pistons ever has won the NBA Most Improved Player award since it first was handed out in 1985-86. The Atlanta Hawks had a member earn the prize for the second time in their history just last season.

Guard Dyson Daniels received the award in 2024-25, his first campaign with the Hawks after spending the first two of his career with the New Orleans Pelicans. He joined forward Alan Henderson, who took home the trophy in 1997-98.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who also is in his first season with Atlanta, is making a case to become the third Hawk to earn the honor. But he's likely going to need to come up with some tremendous performances over the team's final nine games in order to overtake Detroit Pistons center Jalen Duren for the award.

Selected by the Charlotte Hornets with the 13th overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, Duren immediately was traded to the Pistons in a three-team deal that also included the New York Knicks. He started fewer than half of the games in which he appeared as a rookie before settling into Detroit's starting lineup in 2023-24, and he's having his best season to date.

Duren played in 78 games last campaign and averaged 11.8 points while hitting 66.9% of his free-throw attempts. In 62 outings this season, the 22-year-old is scoring 19.3 points and making 74.1% of his shots from the charity stripe.

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Alexander-Walker has started 63 of the 70 contests in which he has appeared for the Hawks after making only 10 starts while playing in all 82 games for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2024-25. The 27-year-old has averaged almost eight more minutes per game than last season and has improved his numbers in many categories but is considered the second favorite behind Duren to win the Most Improved Player award at the major sportsbooks.

Duren is priced between -120 and -130 at the major books, while Alexander-Walker is listed between +130 and +150. It's basically a two-man race for the award, as Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija is a distant third with odds ranging from +600 to +675.

A guard has won the Most Improved Player award three of the last four seasons, while a true center has captured it just four times in its 40-year history -- most recently in 1996-97, when Isaac Austin of the Miami Heat accomplished the feat. Three forward-centers have taken the prize, with Minnesota's Kevin Love being the last to do so in 2010-11.

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Best bet: Duren (+120, FanDuel)

Alexander-Walker's improvement cannot be denied. Among the areas in which he has done better this season as opposed to last are scoring (20.4 points-9.4 points), assists (3.7-2.7), field-goal percentage (45.0%-43.8%), 3-point percentage (39.0%-38.1%) and free-throw percentage (90.1%-78.0%).

However, those increases can be attributed to his receiving considerably more playing time this season. Duren has had a minor jump in minutes played (28.0-26.1), but the rise in his scoring output and free-throw shooting is a testament to how much better he is performing.

Duren has scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive games and nine of his last 10. He is fourth in the NBA with 38 double-doubles and has recorded one in seven of his last eight outings -- including Detroit's 130-129 overtime loss to Atlanta on Wednesday, when he scored a team-leading 26 points and grabbed a game-high 14 rebounds. 

Helping Duren's cause to win the award is the fact that the Pistons sit atop the Eastern Conference. Detroit entered Friday with a 53-20 record and a 4.5-game lead over the Boston Celtics in the standings. 

Alexander-Walker also has been scoring at a high pace of late, pouring in at least 20 points in nine of his last 11 contests. But the Most Improved Player award appears to be Duren's to lose, so backing him seems like the better bet.