The 2024 NBA postseason is well underway, and the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
There's been quite a bit of consternation about the officiating in Game 1. I'm not prepared to say there will be so many controversial endgame fouls throughout the series... but remember, the Pacers led the NBA in fouls committed while the Knicks ranked 25th. Aaron Nesmith has played against the Knicks four times and committed at least four fouls in all four of those games. Andrew Nembhard has committed 14 fouls in those four Knicks games. Indiana built a game plan around trying to defend Jalen Brunson one-on-one. They can't do that without fouling because, frankly, this is a very weak group of point-of-attack defenders. They started to show a bit of help at points late in the game, but the Knicks solved that defensive approach in the Philadelphia series. Ultimately, I just don't see a consistent way this group of Pacers can defend the Knicks, whereas Indiana's offense is relatively streaky and dependent on 3-pointers and fast-breaks. The Pick: Knicks -4.5
We've covered the fouling issues in this series. Another important pro-offense note here is how fast these teams were willing to play in Game 1. The Knicks and Pacers played at a 98-possession pace in Game 1. That's slow by regular-season standards, but faster than any team has averaged this postseason. There were 38 total fast-break points in the game. For reference, no team averaged more than 18.7 in the regular season. The Pacers want to play fast. They were the NBA's second-fastest regular-season team. The Knicks just played a full series at Philadelphia's glacial pace and now appear eager to stretch their legs a bit. The Pick: Over 222.5
Isaiah Hartenstein's rebounding prop sounds tempting on paper. With Mitchell Robinson injured, he has to play a ton of minutes... right? Well, he played 36 minutes in Game 1 and pulled in only six rebounds. He hasn't reached double digits once this postseason. That doesn't mean he hasn't been valuable on the glass in the playoffs. Only OG Anunoby has more box outs in the playoffs, according to NBA.com tracking data. But when it comes to actually pulling down the board, that has been Josh Hart's department. There are just so many ways Hartenstein can come in below this number. Foul trouble. His Achilles injury acting up. Indiana aggressively boxing him out, clearing the way for other Knicks. The Pick: Hartenstein Under 9.5 Rebounds
