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The NBA conference semifinals tip off Monday, May 4 with two games, as the New York Knicks host the Philadelphia 76ers and the Minnesota Timberwolves visit the San Antonio Spurs. The Sixers stunned the second-seeded Celtics in seven games, while the Knicks blew out the Hawks in six after an early series deficit lit a spark. In the West, No. 2 seed San Antonio eased past the Portland Trail Blazers in five games, and Minnesota overcame Anthony Edwards' injury to get past the Denver Nuggets in six.

Before you lock in your NBA bets for Monday's conference semifinals Game 1s, you have to check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. The model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times before issuing its best bets and top NBA picks, including NBA player props. 

The model has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. It enters the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

There are plenty of interesting options available to those who want to wager on Monday's games, including money line bets, spread bets, Over/Under bets and player prop bets. And if you're interested in parlay betting, you could even put two or more of these picks together at FanDuel for the potential of a significant profit.

Check out the FanDuel promo code for a new-user offer before placing any NBA Playoffs bets on Monday.

NBA Playoffs picks, best bets for Monday, May 4

  • 76ers vs. Knicks Over 213.5
  • Joel Embiid Under 8.5 Rebounds
  • Timberwolves vs. Spurs Over 217.5
  • Julius Randle Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

76ers vs. Knicks Over 213.5

New York has gone Over its total in three of its past four games and is 36-35 to the Over when it is a favorite. The Sixers are 42-48 to the Over, including the playoffs. Both teams are in the top 12 in scoring, with the Knicks averaging 117.6 points and Philly averaging 116.2. The Knicks also are strong on defense but the teams allow 227 points combined, so the SportsLine model has the Over hitting in 55.5% of its simulations, good for a 'B' grade.

Joel Embiid Under 8.5 Rebounds

The Sixers big man is banged up, nursing a hip contusion and just recovered from an emergency appendectomy on April 9, but he is listed as probable and expected to play. Philadelphia is also coming off a physical Game 7, and Embiid was laboring a bit toward the end of the game. Still, he had 34 points and 12 rebounds. The SportsLine model doesn't see him having that sort of success in this series opener, with the props model projecting him for 7.2 rebounds. 

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Over 217.5

San Antonio is favored by 13.5 points in Game 1, in large part because Edwards isn't expected to play. He's listed as questionable, but he's likely to miss a couple of more games after hyper-extending his knee. The SportsLine model projects the total going well Over 220 despite Edwards' likely absence. Minnesota averages almost 120 points per game, and San Antonio scores more than 118. The Timberwolves are 26-18 to the Over on the road, and the total has gone Over in four of the past five meetings.

Julius Randle Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

With Edwards likely out, Randle will try to pick up a lot of the slack, and he is averaging 19.2 points, 7.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists in the playoffs. He averaged 32.8 combined points, rebounds and assists in the regular season. Randle hit nine rebounds three times, had at least five assists three times and topped this total twice in the first round. If he gets the points, he should surpass this number, and the model is projecting him for 21.9 points and 33.7 PRA in Game 1.       

NBA bettors can learn more about the FanDuel promo code for a great offer.