NBA title predictions: Expert picks at midseason mark as Nuggets get more love than Thunder
As we hit the halfway mark in the season, our experts are picking both conference finals winners and the 2026 NBA champ
Through the first 25 games, the Oklahoma City Thunder looked like they were well on their way to challenging Golden State's NBA record 73-win season. Then came the Spurs, who beat them three times in two weeks, and they haven't been fully right since. As we hit the halfway point of the season, are the Thunder still the favorite to win it all?
The odds say yes. But what does our staff say? Given what we've seen to this point, we've put together our midseason predictions for who we'll see matching up in the Western and Eastern Conference finals, and who's going to win it all in June.
This is all subject to change, of course. A few weeks ago the Rockets looked like a top-tier contender, and now their last seven losses have come to teams with losing records.Things are happening. The Wolves and Sixers are rising fast. The Spurs are trying to stay steady. The Nuggets are holding the line until Nikola Jokic gets back. The trade deadline could change a lot. But right now, here's how we see the league's power structure taking shape in May and June.
Eastern Conference finals picks
Western Conference finals picks
2026 NBA Finals picks
Expert explanations
Botkin: Based on what I'm seeing from the Thunder since their schedule toughened and what I saw from the Nuggets prior to Nikola Jokić (and Aaron Gordon) going down, I think Denver, with Jamal Murray having a great year and poised for a playoff takeover, is going to come out of the West.
The East is essentially down to four teams for me: Detroit, New York, Boston and Cleveland. It just doesn't feel like the Cavs' year; Boston is a real threat. But in the end I picked the Knicks at the start of the year and 'll stick with that thanks to Jalen Brunson's late-game offense, the best wing crop of the bunch and the dominance of Mitchell Robinson on the offensive glass, which I think will swing at least a series.
Gonzalez: Redemption for the Pistons, who were a couple breaks away (and at least one questionable call) from beating the Knicks in the playoffs last season. The Pistons have been the most consistent team in the East, and they have the best player on either team.
Four of the Nuggets five starters have spent significant time on the shelf due to injuries, and yet Denver is still fighting it out for a top-four spot in the West and home-court advantage in the first round. We spent a lot of time talking about how this is the deepest team Joker has ever had around him. That's paying off. Once they're fully healthy, they're going to be a problem. Don't forget a worse version of the Nuggs took the Thunder to seven games last postseason.
The Nuggets have the best player in the world. Jokić should finally have an All-Star teammate this year with Jamal Murray set to be honored for the first time. Aaron Gordon is underrated. Peyton Watson has stepped up as a quality rotation player. And the bench is deeper than it's ever been in the Jokić era. Denver hangs another banner.
Kalland: The East is a mess, but I think it'll be a fun mess come playoff time. There are a ton of teams that will truly believe they can make the Finals because of how up-and-down most teams have been and the fact that Detroit is unproven in terms of being able to make a deep playoff run. Even so, I'm going to go with the Pistons because I think Cade Cunningham is the best player in the conference right now. They battled the Knicks in a tight six-game series a year ago, but couldn't quite get over the line. I expect them to learn from that experience and think if they find themselves in close games again late (which seems likely with those two teams) that Cade will ultimately prevail and push them to the Finals.
I'll start with the caveat that if Denver gets fully healthy, it's the best team they've ever built around Nikola Jokić. That said, I have genuine concern about Aaron Gordon's hamstring because that's something that has to be constantly managed, and even with Peyton Watson's emergence, Gordon is so vital to what they do in the playoffs. I'll also admit that my West Finals pick is perhaps a bit of wishcasting, but a Thunder-Spurs series would be incredible. This is the best budding rivalry in the league and while the Spurs might not be ready quite yet, it'd be incredibly fun to see Victor Wembanyama take a swing at the champs over seven games. I think OKC has made some adjustments against San Antonio, and as difficult as that matchup is, I think they would emerge with a tough six or seven-game win.
I think much like last year, the Finals would end up being much closer than anticipated because the Thunder will have had to go through another gauntlet in the West. The East champ will likely be a bit fresher and I could see Detroit pushing this to six or seven games as well. That said, the Pistons just aren't quite there in terms of the supporting cast around Cunningham to win a Finals against OKC, and the Thunder repeat.
Maloney: Like pretty much everyone, I don't trust a single team in the East. Who knows what's going on with the Cavaliers, the Magic can't stay healthy, and the Hawks have been a major disappointment. If the Celtics are able to smoothly reintegrate Jayson Tatum into the mix by the spring, they could honestly win the conference, but that's a big if. The Pistons and Knicks have been the two best teams thus far, but even they have issues -- and opposite ones at that. Come playoff time, there will be real concerns about the Pistons' offense and the Knicks' defense. As we saw last season, a Pistons-Knicks Eastern Conference finals would be a slugfest. The Pistons almost beat the Knicks then, and are a better team now.
The West is a different story. Four of the top-five title favorites, per Caesars, are in the West: the Thunder, Nuggets, Spurs and Rockets. And that doesn't even include that Timberwolves, who have the eighth-best odds and have made it to two consecutive Western Conference finals. The West playoffs are going to be a gauntlet, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see a few upsets. As it stands, though, the Thunder and Nuggets appear to be slightly ahead of everyone else despite a recent skid for the reigning champs and Nikola Jokić's injury. It's not en vogue to pick the Thunder right now, and the Nuggets are capable of beating them, but they're going to have home-court advantage and it's hard to give up on the champs just yet.
The West winner is going to be a massive favorite over the East winner regardless of the matchup. If it's Thunder-Pistons, you have to go with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Co. to repeat.
Quinn: Every East team is flawed. The Knicks are the closest to complete among them. At the end of the day, I have more trust in their ability to generate a passable defense given all of the strong defenders that they have than I do in Detroit's ability to generate offense when their shooting woes get put under a magnifying glass in the playoffs. If the Pistons make a trade for a shooter, I'll happily reconsider. For now, I give the Knicks a slight edge.
Denver nearly toppled the Thunder last season. Oklahoma City hasn't solved the offensive woes that made last year's matchup so close. There are still too many stretches in which the shots aren't falling and they stagnate. Last year's Nuggets were too injured, too unstable after a coaching change and too thin to take advantage. This year's Nuggets are still getting healthy, but are otherwise better on all counts. As the Western Conference Finals are effectively the NBA Finals this year given the imbalance between the Finals, I think Denver should handle New York relatively comfortably in the Finals.
2026 NBA title odds
Via Caesars as of Jan. 14
