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Deni Avdija has turned into a star. This season, the Portland Trail Blazers forward has averaged 26 points, 7.1 rebounds and 6.9 assists in 34.9 minutes per game, with a 28.9% usage rate and a 61.6% true shooting percentage. He deserves to make his first All-Star appearance, and he's the leading candidate for the Most Improved Player award. But according to Michael Winger, the Washington Wizards' lead executive, his former team does not regret trading him on the night of the 2024 draft. 

"No, it was not a mistake," Winger told reporters Thursday. "I'm very, very happy for Deni. We're all very happy for Deni. We saw Deni as a very high-level, ascending player. Super happy for him, super happy for the Blazers. We've got a lot of friends there with the Blazers. But no. Because we did it for the reasons we said then, which is to, in effect, take us back a couple years, so that we could reset the roster and everybody was sort of on the same age curve. And Deni's ahead of that."

Winger made the case, essentially, that Avdija's ascension validates the decision to trade him. The Wizards knew the deal would make the team worse in the short term, but that was the point. What they got in exchange for Avdija was not just the stuff that Portland sent them, but an 18-64 record last season (which led to them drafting Tre Johnson with the No. 6 pick) and a 10-33 record so far this season (which will lead to them having another high pick this coming June).

There is some truth to this. The Avdija trade was the opposite of a win-now move, and it opened up minutes on the wing for younger players. It showed that Washington was committed to a multi-year rebuilding plan. But it was still, with the benefit of hindsight, a mistake.

The Wizards traded Avdija for the No. 14 pick in the 2024 draft (Bub Carrington), a 2029 first-round pick (the second-most favorable of Portland, Milwaukee and Boston's picks), two future second-round picks (in 2028 and 2030) and veteran guard Malcolm Brogdon (who was on an expiring contract and has since retired). If Washington wins the 2026 lottery, Carrington breaks out next season and that 2029 first turns out to be something special, then this type of retroactive analysis will be more complicated. Right now, though, this is not an impressive haul for an All-Star-caliber player on perhaps the most team-friendly contract in the entire league.

At the time, Avdija was just 23 years old, entering Year 1 of a four-year, $55 million extension. It's a declining contract, so he's making $14.4 million this season, $13.1 million next season and $11.9 million in 2027-28. He just turned 25. There is no reason for the Blazers to put him on the trade market, but imagine the asking price if they did. Think about what the Brooklyn Nets got for Mikal Bridges. Now think bigger, since he's younger and cheaper.

Washington traded Avdija the same day that it drafted Alex Sarr with the No. 2 pick and Kyshawn George with the No. 24 pick. It had finished 15-67 the year before, and, even if Avdija had made a major leap with the Wizards last season, I'm confident it could have lost enough games to add another core player in the 2025 draft. He's older than Sarr, George, Johnson, Carrington and Bilal Coulibaly, but not so much older that keeping him wouldn't have made sense.

Generally speaking, I'm on board with Winger's philosophy. "As a reminder, we are not pursuing short-term success," he told reporters. "We are not pursuing moderate success. We believe that mediocrity, frankly, is just easily achievable, but there's a very low ceiling on hope." The Avdija trade was part of what he called "the deconstruction phase," which has now been completed. By trading him at that moment, though, for that particular return, the trade was also effectively a bet against Avdija -- not against him continuing to improve, not against him being a solid NBA starter, but against him becoming the high-usage star that he is today. If Washington's front office had thought this was likely, it would have rebuilt the roster around him.