2025 NFL Draft: How high will Ashton Jeanty, others go after the 'year of the running back'

The draft is something that can make or break an organization. NFL general managers, scouts and player personnel staffs around the league study the draft 365 days a year and pour an incredible amount of resources into preparation because it's an inexact science and having as much information as possible is essential. Tens of millions of dollars and their jobs are riding on these picks, so they're the best people to study to learn what the league values these days.

The place to start is the first round. If you've watched any draft this century you probably know what NFL teams value more than anything: quarterbacks. With so much of a team's salary cap, game planning and resources being put into the quarterback position, running back has been increasingly devalued over the years. In 2024, no running backs were selected in the first round for the second time in three years and fourth time in the last 12 years after it had never happened prior in the common draft era (since 1967). 

By comparison, a record six quarterbacks went in the top-12 picks last year. Seven running backs have been selected in the first 12 picks … since 2012.

First-round running backs in NFL Draft

Ten wideouts were selected before Texas' Jonathon Brooks became the first running back to hear his name called with the 46th pick to Carolina in 2024. That was the second-latest pick ever for the first running back to be taken off the board.

When you look at NFL contracts and how positions are valued nowadays, it's easy to see how teams view the game and the importance of passing the ball. Saquon Barkley is now the highest-paid running back in the league earning $20.6 million per year. Heading into the 2025 season, there are currently 20 quarterbacks and 19 wide receivers making more than Barkley's $20.6 million per year.

Ashton Jeanty NFL Draft 2025 profile: Full scouting report, pro comparison, best fits, future outlook and more

Dave Richard

2024: Year of the running back

While the salaries and contracts haven't shown any shift in value as of yet, maybe the 2025 draft will do so thanks to recent seasons from Christian McCaffrey and Barkley. Both won NFL Offensive Player of the Year while leading their teams to the Super Bowl in the last two years. Barkley set an NFL record with 2,504 yards rushing, including playoffs, in 2024.

Last season, we also saw the second-most rush yards per game (119.8) in the last 35 years and the second-most yards per rush (4.44) in NFL history (behind only 4.46 in 2022). Teams are taking advantage of lighter boxes and more two-high safety coverage. Last season also featured the most yards after contact per rush (2.94) and missed tackles (4,829) on record (each tracked since 2017) thanks in part to the heaviest offensive linemen and lightest average defenders in the box on record. Everything points to the conclusion that running backs are in fact back and that they're making more of a difference now than they have since the 1980s. 

But no matter how elite a running back prospect might be, there will always be front office personnel that believe you can't take a running back high in the first round or even in the first few rounds because you can find similar production in the later rounds.

It's understandable why some organizations just won't touch a running back on Day 1 or 2 of the draft when you look and see how important throwing the ball is and how few are run-first teams these days. 

However, the NFL is a copycat league, and it's tough to ignore these numbers:

• The top-six rushing yardage teams all made the playoffs for the first time in NFL history.
• The top-five teams and nine of the top 11 in highest designed run-call rate all made the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
• The 2023 49ers and 2024 Eagles made the Super Bowl in the last two years with the highest designed run rate in the NFL in those seasons. 

If these last two seasons haven't changed some teams' perceptions or beliefs in using a high first-round pick on a running back, then there's probably nothing that will. Barkley and McCaffrey have not only shown the importance and relevance of the position, but they're examples of what having a game-changing back in the right situation can do.

Going back to 2013, there's been seven backs taken in the top 10. So far they've combined for three NFL Offensive Player of the Year awards, seven first-team All-Pro selections, 13 Pro Bowls, four rushing titles and two Super Bowls. 

The last top-10 bust was Trent Richardson going third overall to Cleveland in 2012. 

Running back top-10 picks since 2013  

NFL combine 2025 takeaways: Grades for top RB prospects, plus other winners and losers from on-field workouts

Josh Edwards

How high will Ashton Jeanty go?

As we enter the 2025 draft, we do so with the opportunity to see another running back taken in the top 10 with 2024 Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty.

The 5-foot-8 ½, 211-pound back from Boise State is coming off of one of the greatest seasons by a running back in college football history. His 2,601 yards rushing were 27 yards shy of Barry Sanders' record of 2,628 for Oklahoma State back in 1988. 

His one "down" game was in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals vs. Penn State. He had 30 rush attempts for a season-low 104 yards, no touchdowns and one lost fumble. Scouts were surely dialed in on what Jeanty did against his stiffest competition and how he dealt with the most physical front seven he'd faced all year. 

While his numbers were his worst of the year, it had less to do with his performance and was more about the Nittany Lions' eighth-ranked rush defense stacking the box and dominating Boise State's offensive line. Jeanty still forced an incredible 19 missed tackles. There were only four FBS games where a running back forced 19-plus missed tackles in 2024 and three of them belonged to Jeanty, including an FBS-best 20 forced missed tackles vs. San Diego State. His 170 forced missed tackles not only led all FBS players, but were the most in a season since PFF began tracking the stat in 2016. 

That leads us to one of our favorite stats heading into this year's draft. Jeanty rushed for 1,970 yards after contact in 2024. If you considered Jeanty's rush yards after contact to be its own person, he still would've had more rush yards than every other back in the nation not named Ashton Jeanty.

Leading rushers in FBS (2024)

When teams turn on his film they'll immediately see his vision, burst, power, contact balance and ability to use his long speed to create an explosive play every time he touches the ball. Jeanty had more 60-plus-yard rushing touchdowns in 2024 (eight) than any FBS team had 60-plus-yard runs. His game film shows a complete three-down back who can run, catch, block and who is pro ready. 

Most 60-plus-yard rush plays in FBS (2024)

So, how high might Jeanty go and where are the best fits for him in the 2025 draft?

Las Vegas Raiders (No. 6 overall pick)

There are two teams in need of a running back, have a quarterback and pick in the top half of the first round. The first is the Las Vegas Raiders with the sixth pick. The Raiders are no longer in the quarterback market as they traded a third-rounder to Seattle to reunite Geno Smith with Pete Carroll after one year apart. They are now tasked with surrounding Smith with weapons, and that could start in the backfield after the Raiders ranked dead last in both rush yards per game (79.8)  and yards per rush (3.6) in 2024.

A couple weeks before acquiring his quarterback, Carroll pointed out the need to improve the Raiders' run game in order to help the quarterback position when he said, "As Coach [Bill] Walsh said a long time ago, it's the hardest position in professional sports to play. We need to do everything we can to facilitate and make it as easy as possible for that guy. So that's why the running game is so fundamental to it." 

Carroll is no stranger to having a physical presence like Jeanty in the backfield, either. The Seahawks had the highest run-call rate (44%) in the NFL and averaged the second-most rush yards per game (135.2) during Marshawn Lynch's six seasons with Carroll from 2010-15. Las Vegas also saw firsthand the impact of an elite back after Josh Jacobs signed with Green Bay last offseason.

Dallas Cowboys (No. 12 overall pick)

The other team with an obvious need for a running back is the Cowboys. Dak Prescott is under as much pressure and scrutiny to have a big season in 2025 as anyone, and an improved run game might be just what he needs to help him take Dallas to the playoffs. Dallas ranked 27th in the league in rushing in 2024, and 1,000-yard running back Rico Dowdle signed a free agent deal with Carolina. The Cowboys have added Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders this offseason, but they combined for just over 700 yards and six touchdowns last season in Denver and Carolina, respectively. 

The highest-drafted Cowboys running backs in the common draft era are Tony Dorsett (second in 1977), Ezekiel Elliott (fourth in 2016) and Emmitt Smith (17th in 1990). You can't ask for a better hit rate than that, so a homecoming with Jeanty, a Texas native, could be in order.

Chicago Bears (No. 10 overall pick)

Before Dallas is on the clock with the 12th pick, there's a wild-card team in the Bears picking 10th. The Bears rushed for 102.0 yards per game (25th) and need to surround last year's No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams with as much talent as possible. Chicago already did an excellent job overhauling the offensive line around Williams after hiring head coach Ben Johnson, and nobody knows the importance of running quite like Johnson. He was the offensive coordinator in Detroit when the Lions were the last team to draft a running back in the first round, pairing 12th overall pick Jahmyr Gibbs with former Bear David Montgomery.

Detroit traded back to make Gibbs the last running back selected in the first round, but what if a team falls in love with Jeanty and decides to do the unthinkable and trade up to take a running back in the first round? The last team to do that was the Chargers in 2015 when they moved up from 17th to 15th for Melvin Gordon III. If Jeanty continues to do everything at a high level and caps off his pre-draft process with a good 40-yard dash time at his pro day, that streak could very well be broken and someone might trade up to get him. 

Jeanty isn't the only running back who will get selected on Day 1 or 2, though. There's a chance that an equal number of running backs and quarterbacks go in the first round for the first time since 2015 (two apiece). Maybe we'll also start seeing the reversal of this trend. An average of six running backs have gone in the top-100 picks this decade, the sixth straight decade it has declined (and all the way from 15.3 in the 1970s). 

Average number of RBs taken in top-100 picks

Here's a look at a few other backs who could join Jeanty on Day 1 or 2 of the draft. 

Other top RB prospects

Omarion Hampton

UNC • RB • #28

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• Height: 5-foot-11 ¾
• Weight: 221 pounds
• 40-yard dash time: 4.48 seconds

If this draft class didn't have Jeanty in it, then North Carolina's Omarion Hampton would've likely been the first running back off the board. He had 1,500-plus yards rushing and 15 rushing touchdowns in each of the last two seasons. He used his imposing size to rush for 1,222 yards after contact, which was the second-most in the FBS behind Jeanty. Scouts were surely impressed by his NFL combine performance where at nearly 6 feet and 221 pounds he ran the same 40 time as Bijan Robinson (4.46 seconds). Teams that miss out on Jeanty will be heavily considering Hampton as their first-round selection.

Cam Skattebo

ARIZST • RB • #4

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• Height: 5-foot-9 ½
• Weight: 219 lbs
• 40-yard dash time: N/A

Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo's 1,711 yards rushing and 2,316 total yards in 2024 were all second in the FBS behind Jeanty. His 117 forced missed tackles were the second-most in a season since PFF began tracking them in 2016. In the College Football Playoff, he went against the toughest competition in his career when he faced Texas and its top five defense in the Peach Bowl. Skattebo proceeded to put on a show where he rushed for 143 yards and two touchdowns, had eight receptions for 99 yards and threw a 42-yard touchdown for good measure in Arizona State's 39-31 double-overtime loss. He just missed out on a Heisman invite as he finished fifth in the voting. Skattebo is one of only two FBS players this century to rush for 1,700+ yards and have 600+ yards receiving in the same season. The other was Christian McCaffrey at Stanford in 2015. Skattebo's rise from FCS Sacramento State to Arizona State's CFP run has been remarkable. His production and 39.5-inch broad jump at the combine will make it tough on teams to pass on him. 

TreVeyon Henderson

OHIOST • RB • #32

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• Height: 5-foot-10 ⅛
• Weight: 202 pounds
• 40-yard dash time: 4.43 seconds

TreVeyon Henderson is one of two Ohio State 1,000-yard running backs who could go in the first two days of the draft. His highest production came in his freshman season in 2021 when he rushed for 1,255 yards and 15 touchdowns. In 2024 he split time with Quinshon Judkins but still had 1,016 yards, 7.1 yards per rush and 10 rushing touchdowns. Since 2021, he has had more rush yards (3,768) and the highest yards per rush (6.4) in the Big Ten. And only Michigan's Blake Corum had more rush touchdowns than Henderson's 42. If his production over the last four years didn't impress scouts, than his performance at the combine, when he showed off his athleticism with a 4.43-second 40-yard dash and 38.5-inch vertical jump, certainly did. His top speed of 23.38 miles per hour was second-fastest among all running backs who ran at the combine. 

Quinshon Judkins

OHIOST • RB • #1

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• Height: 5-foot-11 ⅝
• Weight: 221 pounds
• 40-yard dash time: 4.48 seconds

After having 1,000-plus yards rushing and 15 rushing touchdowns in each of his first two seasons at Ole Miss, Quinshon Judkins took his talents to Ohio State in 2024 during which he led the Buckeyes in rushing and to a College Football Playoff title. He's shown what he can do against top competition when he was named 2022 SEC Freshman of the Year and led the conference in rushing. When the lights were brightest, Judkins rushed for 100 yards and two touchdowns in the Buckeyes' 2024 College Football Playoff title game victory over Notre Dame. Scouts will love his physical running style and the way he finishes off runs, and they'll love that his 10-yard split in the 40-yard dash at the combine of 1.51 seconds was even faster than Hampton's and his teammate Henderson's

Kaleb Johnson

IOWA • RB • #2

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• Height: 6-foot-1
• Weight: 224 pounds
• 40-yard dash time: 4.57 seconds

Iowa's Kaleb Johnson ranked in the top 10 in FBS in rushing attempts (240, 10th), rushing yards (1,537, sixth), rushing touchdowns (21, tied for fifth), forced missed tackles (78, 10th) and yards after contact (1,060, fifth) in 2024. His size will immediately jump out to teams, and when they turn on the film, they'll see a one-cut back with a good burst who led a physical Big Ten Conference in almost every rushing category.  A running back with his size and physicality will translate on Day 1 in the NFL, so it will be interesting to see if an organization will spend a top-100 draft pick on him.