The idea persists — or persisted for a while anyway — that Chip Kelly, if he wants to get Marcus Mariota, has to make one swift, bold, all-in move up the draft board in order to acquire his old quarterback. This makes sense logically because it properly values Mariota as a top-five pick in a quarterback league with potential suitors lurking up and down the draft board.
It ignores, however, the possibility of Kelly making TWO trades in order to get all the way up to No. 2 overall. He can’t convince the Titans to drop to 20, not without giving up a ridiculous ransom. But he could probably convince them to drop down 10 spots or so in the draft and all he needs is a third team involved who will deal with him.
That third team’s been sitting there for weeks, ever since the Cleveland Browns offered Kelly a first-round pick for his newly acquired quarterback Sam Bradford.
So let’s bring that deal back and have the Browns give the Eagles a first-round pick (No. 12) in exchange for Sam Bradford (Philly can throw in a third-round pick to expedite the deal maybe?). The Browns own No. 19 in this draft and have their new quarterback. The Eagles own No. 12, which Kelly promptly packages with No. overall and sends to the Titans in exchange to the rights for No. 2.
This would actually be a steal: second is worth 2,600 trade value points, while 12 (1,200) and 20 (850) don’t quite add up. But the chance to get out of the second spot and pick up two first-round picks would be appealing to Ken Whisenhunt and Ruston Webster, particularly without having to leave the top 15. Again, the Eagles could sweeten the pot if necessary.
The expectations isn’t that Kelly ultimately goes up to get Mariota. Seems like we’ve gotten far enough away from that. The point being is there’s more than way one to skin a duck.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State — The “everyone’s bored two weeks before the draft so let’s try and add some drama to a boring top pick” thing that’s happening right now is an adorable annual tradition but it’s unlikely the Bucs are going to leave course at this stage of the game. Jameis is the guy, sink or swim.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (via MOCK TRADE with Tennessee Titans) — Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon — Chip gets his guy through some fancy draft-day finagling. It theoretically does cost him a lot in this draft if he has to pay an expediency tax to the Browns and Titans, but the thinking here is he loves Mariota enough to push hard once draft day rolls around.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars — Dante Fowler, OLB, Florida — This is the conservative pick from the third spot and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if the Jags ended up going in this direction. Fowler’s a heck of a player to add to this defense and Gus Bradley will use him better than Will Muschamp.
4. Oakland Raiders — Leonard Williams, DL, USC — This is a relative free fall in any mock draft I’ve done (or seen) so far. Doesn’t seem likely that Williams makes it this far, but it is possible. The Raiders could trade out or grab a local — and perhaps soon to be more local — product to shore up the defensive line and set Khalil Mack free.
5. Washington Redskins — Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama — Best player available for a team not necessarily in need of a wide receiver. Yet. We covered in the last mock that the Skins could soon lose one of or both Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson. You can’t suddenly be devoid of wideouts. Cooper helps them restock the shelf.
6. New York Jets — Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson — Perfect fit for a fabulous player who probably shouldn’t fall this far. Beasley’s going to cut loose under Todd Bowles’ willingness to blitz and get after the quarterback in a high-pressure system that could feature his pass-rushing skills.
7. Miami Dolphins (via MOCK TRADE with Chicago Bears) — Kevin White, WR, West Virginia — The Dolphins need to get better at wideout after an offseason saw them finally understanding/giving up on Mike Wallace and trading for Kenny Stills. White is a game-changer worthy of a top-10 pick and moving up for him here is a bold, smart play.
8. Atlanta Falcons — Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska — The Falcons aren’t sweating the marijuana test here because they need pass-rush help more than anything.
9. New York Giants — Danny Shelton, DT, Washington — Beef up the defensive line, improve against the run and suddenly the pass rush gets better. After that the linebackers and secondary get better too. The Giants should recognize the formula from their championship runs, only this time it’s by grabbing a defensive tackle.
10. St. Louis Rams — Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa — The behemoth from Iowa could end up being a tackle but more than likely he ends up being a ridiculously strong guard. Either way, the Rams suddenly have a left side with Greg Robinson and Scherff. That’s a mountain to protect Nick Foles.
11. Minnesota Vikings — DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville — The Vikings grabbed Mike Wallace via trade but let’s be real. They’re not set at the position. Parker could end up being the best wideout in this draft and he spent time playing with Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater already. Get him his guy.
12. Tennessee Titans (via MOCK TRADE with PHILADELPHIA EAGLES via MOCK TRADE with Cleveland Browns) — Shane Ray, DE, Missouri — Brian Orakpo is in town and Derrick Morgan is in the fold, but that’s not a fully solid rotation. You can’t guarantee those guys are on the field or producing at a high level. Bring in Ray to beef up the rotation.
13. New Orleans Saints — Andrus Peat, OL, Stanford — The Saints need more mauling bodies in the run game on the offensive line to complete their overhaul. Peat gives them a big body who can help create holes for Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller and potentially become a cornerstone somewhere along this line.
14. Chicago Bears (via MOCK TRADE with Miami Dolphins) — Arik Armstead, DL, Oregon — The Bears get upside with Armstead while also nabbing an extra pick or two in the process of moving down a few spots. They probably hoped Shelton fell to them there (and it’s possible it could happen) but Armstead isn’t a terrible consolation prize.
15. San Francisco 49ers — Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State — The 49ers defense is in need of a semi-overhaul at this point but the secondary is a major concern outside of Eric Reid. Waynes gives San Francisco a big-body, press-man corner with excellent ball skills.
16. Houston Texans — Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF — Not exactly an ideal wideout to be your new No. 1 … but the Texans have a good situation here. DeAndre Hopkins is the No. 1 option, this is a primarily running-based offense and Perriman, despite his inability to catch a ton of balls, can do a ton of good things with the rock in short yardage.
17. San Diego Chargers — Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia — This kid is a stud. Someone is going to take him in the top 20 because of his talent, pedigree and what a five-year contract will do for you in terms of having a player who can cheaply contribute. Gurley is going to be great at the next level.
18. Kansas City Chiefs — Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma — More weapons! There’s a few red flags here for the Chiefs but DGB is crazy value if he pans out as the first-round talent he is. Grabbing him now, pairing him with Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce? This could turn Andy Reid’s offense into a stunner next year.
19. Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo Bills) — La’El Collins, OL, LSU — With Sam Bradford in tow the Browns need to improve on an already decent offensive line. Collins gives them someone who can move Mitchell Schwartz to guard or play inside himself if necessary, but also a physical presence in the run game.
20. Tennessee Titans (via MOCK TRADE with Philadelphia Eagles) — Malcom Brown, DL, Texas — A poor man's Leonard Williams for the Titans here (very poor?!?) as they move down, grab another defensive player and start to resemble a team who can stop people from scoring.
21. Cincinnati Bengals — T.J. Clemmings, OL, Pittsburgh — Just feels like the Bengals going offensive line, getting better in the trenches for their run game and preparing for when Andrew Whitworth eventually leaves (after 2015?) is the most logical play here.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers — Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest — Ike Taylor and Troy Polamalu both retired this offseason, which should tell you everything you need to know about the Steelers secondary. They’ve got to get younger in the backfield and Johnson would be a nice addition here.
23. Detroit Lions — Ereck Flowers, OL, Miami — Mauling lineman with a nasty streak fits in the mentality of the Lions and would immediately make their run game better.
24. Arizona Cardinals — Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin — Consolation prize for the Cards after Gurley went earlier. They need a feature running back and Adrian Peterson isn’t looking like an attainable option at this point in time.
25. Carolina Panthers — D.J. Humphries, OL, Florida — A position of need that doubles as best player available for Dave Gettleman. Carolina grabbed Michael Oher and Jonathan Martin this offseason but they’re just placeholders.
26. Baltimore Ravens — Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State — A hand injury drops Strong on the draft board but Ozzie Newsome swoops in and nabs a wide receiver to fill the void left by Torrey Smith’s departure. This isn’t a strong unit right now and Joe Flacco needs more weapons.
27. Dallas Cowboys — Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky — The Cowboys have lots of needs, but getting defensive talent is the biggest problem for this team right now. Dupree fell further than you’d expect in this mock and Dallas pounces on the athletic freak who could be turned into a rotational pass rusher out of the gate.
28. Denver Broncos — Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State — The Broncos have dealt with a rash of injuries that have hurt this offensive line over the time Peyton Manning’s been there. Erving is a nice grab now for his versatility and long-term he can lock into either guard or center as a high-impact player.
29. Indianapolis Colts — Eddie Goldman, DL, Florida State — Seminole run! The Colts have vowed to get better at stopping the run. Goldman is a hands-y guy who can work into the defensive line rotation for Chuck Pagano and help improve this team’s defense.
30. Green Bay Packers — Jalen Collins, CB, LSU — Building out depth in the secondary should be key with the loss of Tramon Williams. Ted Thompson can swoop on a lengthy SEC corner who doesn’t need to play right away here.
31. New Orleans Saints (via Seattle Seahawks) — Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut — Athletic freak gives the Saints another secondary weapon. They signed Brandon Browner but look at the wide receivers in this division and there’s no question you need more than just him and Keenan Lewis. Corner is a high-impact position in the NFL but it’s critical in the NFC South against the huge wideouts the Saints face.
32. New England Patriots — Eric Rowe, CB, Utah — Corner run! Bill Belichick needs to stock up on his secondary players after losing Browner and Darrelle Revis. Rowe gives him a guy he can mold into a future stud at the position.
