Already boasting a defense that ranked fourth overall in the NFL in 2022, the New York Jets felt great about their chances of ending the longest active playoff drought in the league when they acquired Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers in April 2023. They also were optimistic about the prospects of winning the Super Bowl for the first time since 1968.
Those hopes and dreams ended quickly, as Rodgers ruptured the Achilles tendon in his left ankle on the fourth play of New York's 2023 season opener against the Buffalo Bills. Despite seeing its defense finish third in the league, the team struggled offensively and posted a 7-10 record, missing the postseason for the 13th consecutive year.
Rodgers made a full recovery following surgery and was ready to help lead the Jets to greener pastures when the 2024 campaign began. However, the four-time NFL MVP hasn't exactly been setting the league on fire.
The 10-time Pro Bowl quarterback, who turns 41 years old in December, threw for just 167 yards with a touchdown and an interception in New York's season-opening 32-19 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. He amassed only 176 passing yards a week later in a 24-17 triumph over the Tennessee Titans.
Rodgers did make a pair of TD tosses in that victory, and he repeated the feat while racking up 281 yards through the air when the Jets rolled past the New England Patriots 24-3 in Week 3. But he turned in an unimpressive performance last weekend, completing 24-of-42 pass attempts for 225 yards as New York failed to find the end zone in its 10-9 home setback against the Denver Broncos in miserable weather conditions.
The offensive line did a subpar job protecting Rodgers in that contest, as he was sacked five times. He appeared to be feeling the effects of the rough treatment late in the game and stated that his knee was "a little swollen" during his weekly spot on a national television show on Tuesday.
In the early going, it appears that Rodgers is having difficulty connecting with top receiver Garrett Wilson. The 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Wilson eclipsed the 1,000-yard plateau in each of his first two seasons with Zach Wilson as his primary quarterback, but he is on pace to finish below that mark this year as he has gained just 191 yards on 20 catches while being targeted 34 times.
The ground attack also has been an issue for the Jets thus far. They are 27th in the NFL with an average of 91.5 rushing yards, while Breece Hall has gained only 174 on 56 carries after finishing six shy of 1,000 last year.
The good news is that the defense once again is playing well, ranking third in the league overall (256.5 yards allowed) and second against the pass (128). It also is fifth in the NFL with an average of 15.5 points allowed.
But make no mistake, the Jets will need Rodgers and the rest of the offense to raise their game if they hope to avoid a 14th consecutive year without a playoff appearance. The loss to Denver proved just that, and improvement has to begin with the team's Week 5 matchup against its former "quarterback of the future" Sam Darnold and the undefeated Minnesota Vikings in London.
New York can ill afford another performance like the one it put forth against the Broncos as an 8-point favorite. According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the team's chances for success in 2024 took a considerable hit with that defeat.
Following their back-to-back wins against Tennessee and New England, the Jets' prospects of winning their first AFC East title since 2002 were at 24%. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, also had New York making the playoffs 78% of the time and winning the Super Bowl in 4.5% of its simulations.
However, the club's chances of capturing the division crown were nearly sliced in half after the dismal outing versus the Broncos, falling to 13.2%. The model now says the Jets reach the postseason 58.5% of the time and puts their likelihood of taking home the Vince Lombardi Trophy at 2.3%
At 2-2, New York is just one game behind Buffalo in the AFC East standings. A victory over the Vikings on Sunday would raise its prospects of winning the division to 18%. The model also projects the Jets qualify for the postseason 69% of the time and has them winning the championship in 3% of its simulations with a triumph in England.
But they'll need to find a way to slow down Darnold, who was selected by New York with the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft but cast aside after three disappointing seasons. Following stints with the Carolina Panthers and 49ers, the 27-year-old signed with Minnesota in March and claimed the starting quarterback job after first-round pick J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason.
Darnold is making the most of his latest opportunity as he leads the NFL with 11 touchdown passes and ranks first with a 118.9 passer rating. If he continues his success and leads the Vikings to victory against his former team, the model says the Jets' chances drop to 10% for the division title, 51% for a playoff berth and 1.6% to win the Super Bowl.
The model is calling for a close game between the Jets and Vikings this weekend. However, the matchup isn't one of the two with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the fifth week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 5 NFL picks at SportsLine.
