The Green Bay Packers ended the Aaron Rodgers era when they traded the four-time NFL MVP to the New York Jets after the 2022 season and handed the reins to Jordan Love, the quarterback for which they traded up to select with the 26th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Saddled with the task of succeeding someone who guided the team to eight NFC North titles, 11 playoff appearances, five trips to the conference championship game and one to the Super Bowl, Love did not disappoint in his first year as Green Bay's offensive general.
In fact, he likely exceeded expectations in 2023 as he finished seventh in the league with 4,159 passing yards and second with 32 touchdown tosses. Love then threw for 272 yards and three scores in the Packers' stunning 48-32 triumph over the Cowboys in Dallas in the wild-card round before making a pair of TD passes in a 24-21 setback against the San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round.
Love's first year at the helm after Rodgers's departure was so impressive that the club gave him a four-year, $220 million contract extension this past July. With added salary comes added pressure, and prior to the start of the 2024 season, many experts predicted he would lead the Packers to their fourth division title in six years, and some even believed he would take them to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2010.
The SportsLine Projection Model also had high hopes for Green Bay this season. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, picked Over 9.5 wins (-135) for the Packers and also had them capturing the NFC North (+200).
According to Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model, the reason behind the model's affection for the Packers was Love. With the team sitting at 3-6 last season, the Utah State product raised his level of play in the second half of the year, making multiple touchdown passes seven times as Green Bay won six of its last eight regular-season games. Love threw just one interception in that span.
Love opened 2024 with a solid performance against the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil, throwing for 260 yards with two TDs and one interception in the NFL's first game in South America. With the Packers trailing 34-29 in the waning moments, the 25-year-old helped get the team across midfield and in position for a shot at the end zone with six seconds remaining.
However, Love injured his knee on the play that got Green Bay to the Philadelphia 47-yard line, causing major concern for the team's prospects for the remainder of the year. The injury originally was believed to be more serious, but it was revealed that he had a sprained MCL and would miss 3 to 6 weeks of action.
The rosy projections for the Packers diminish considerably based on the amount of time Love will be out of the lineup. While rumors circulated that the team reached out to veteran free-agent quarterback Ryan Tannehill immediately following Love's injury, head coach Matt LaFleur squashed them on Monday, stating that "at no point in time did we have any discussions with anybody."
Instead, LaFleur confirmed that Malik Willis would start for Green Bay against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2 at Lambeau Field. The 25-year-old Willis, who was just acquired from the Tennessee Titans on Aug. 26, will be making his fourth career NFL start.
Willis' previous three starts came as a rookie with Tennessee in 2022, and two were against the 3-13-1 Houston Texans. He was less than impressive as a passer in those contests, failing to throw for 100 yards or a touchdown in any of them while getting picked off three times, although he rushed 20 times for 95 yards and a score. Overall, the Titans split their meetings with Houston and lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in overtime on the road in Willis' starts.
In 12 career appearances since being selected by Tennessee in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Willis has completed 52.2% of his pass attempts for 350 yards with no TDs and three interceptions. He also has run for 144 yards and a touchdown on 32 carries.
There is some optimism in Green Bay that Love may only miss two games, which would be much more favorable for the club's chances. Should he sit out three contests, SportsLine's model has its projection of 9.7 wins for the Packers prior to the season dropping to 9.2, their chances of winning the NFC North falling from 40% to 33% and their prospects of making the playoffs slipping from 63% to 55%.
Should Love's time on the shelf double to six games, things get even more troubling for the Packers, according to the model. If that were the case, the model projects Green Bay's win total at 8.7, its likelihood of capturing the division title at only 27% and its outlook for qualifying for the postseason at 45%.
For the immediate future, the SportsLIne Projection Model is calling for a tight game between the Packers and Colts in Week 2, even with Willis at QB for Green Bay. However, that contest isn't one of the two with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the second week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 2 NFL picks at SportsLine.
