The New Orleans Saints were in limbo at quarterback for two years following Drew Brees' retirement after the 2020 season, with five different players starting under center but none performing at a level capable of keeping the team atop the NFC South. New Orleans won four consecutive division titles prior to Brees' departure but was unable to maintain its stronghold once he called it a career.
The Saints believed they solved their quarterback dilemma when they signed Derek Carr to a four-year, $150 million contract in March 2023. The former Las Vegas Raiders signal-caller's first year in New Orleans got off to a rocky start, as he battled injuries while the team lost seven of its first 12 games. However, Carr guided the team to four wins over its final five contests, throwing 14 touchdown passes and only two interceptions in that span.
Despite the strong finish, the Saints failed to reach the postseason for the third year in a row. They haven't gone four consecutive seasons without a playoff appearance since a five-year drought from 2001-05, right before Brees' arrival, and haven't gone four straight campaigns without an NFC South title since a five-year dry spell from 2012-16.
Based on its win-total predictions, the SportsLine Projection Model believes Carr will help take New Orleans back to the top of the division. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, is picking Over 7.5 wins (-120) for the Saints. It projects them to record 9.8 victories and has them winning the NFC South 39% of the time in its simulations -- the highest percentage among the four division members.
"The win projection is insane, based on the general feeling of the public and major media outlets, but it is completely reasonable when you consider the team had a plus-75 point differential last season, which was seventh-best in the NFL," says Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model. "In addition, the teams directly above (Kansas City) and below (Detroit) them [in point differential] have win-total lines of 11.5 and 10.5, respectively, and every other team in the top 10 in point differential last season has at least an 8.5 line this year."
The model projects there is a nearly 80% chance New Orleans goes Over 7.5 wins. According to Oh, there are several reasons the model is so high on the Saints this season. One is the team's 2024 schedule.
"The counter argument will be that their strength of schedule was weak last season, and that definitely is true," Oh says. "But based on our model power rankings, they once again have the easiest schedule in the league."
Another reason is the belief that Carr will perform much better in his second year with New Orleans, especially at the beginning of the season. The four-time Pro Bowler threw more than one touchdown pass just once in his first seven games last campaign and was held without one twice in that span.
Carr finished with 3,878 passing yards -- more than both Jalen Hurts and 2023 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson -- and 25 touchdown tosses, the fourth-highest total of his 10-year career. He has a solid receiving corps at his disposal that is led by Chris Olave, who has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark in each of his first two NFL seasons. Meanwhile, Rashid Shaheed (719 yards), A.T. Perry (246) and tight end Juwan Johnson (368) combined for eight TD receptions over the final four games of the year.
Most sportsbooks have Over 7.5 wins for New Orleans at -120 or higher, but Caesars has the best line at -110, so Oh suggests acting on that while you can. "Using the individual consensus money lines for every game, the oddsmakers' true projected win total is nearly 8.0 (7.94), so if they were betting, they'd take the Over," he says.
New Orleans' hated rival, the Atlanta Falcons, were in the same situation as the Saints regarding their quarterback after trading Matt Ryan to Indianapolis after the 2021 season. After giving Marcus Mariota (2022) and Desmond Ridder (2023) the chance to win the starting job, many experts feel strongly that the Falcons found Ryan's replacement when they signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal this past March.
SportsLine's model agrees, to an extent. Its projected win total for Atlanta increased from 7.0 to 8.7 upon Cousins' arrival, and it rose to 9.3 following the acquisition of linebacker Matt Judon in mid-August. But the model still likes Under 9.5 wins for the Falcons in 2024.
"While our value for Under 9.5 is not as significant as it was earlier in the offseason, it still is very good, considering you can get it at +120 at Caesars and plus money across the board," Oh says.
Part of the model's reasoning is how strongly it feels about New Orleans and reigning NFC South champion Tampa Bay both going Over 7.5 wins. Even Carolina's total line has surged from 4.5 to 5.5, with juice as high as -130 on the Over.
The model also projects a statistical regression in points allowed by Atlanta, even though it hired the defensive-minded Raheem Morris as its coach. The Falcons were 18th in the NFL in points allowed last season, even though they faced a number of offensively challenged teams, such as Carolina (twice), the New York Jets, Tennessee, Washington and Arizona.
"We are projecting even more points allowed, given the fact the Falcons face Kansas City, Dallas, Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Chargers this season," Oh says. "They only had four games against playoff teams last season, and one was versus Green Bay early in the year before it caught fire, while two others were against division-rival Tampa Bay. This season, they play more games versus playoff teams (six) and higher-quality opponents."
Meanwhile, the 36-year-old Cousins is coming off a season with Minnesota that ended in Week 8 due to a torn Achilles tendon. He is expected to be ready for the 2024 opener, but even though they signed him to that lucrative contract, the Falcons must have had some doubts about his ability to fully recover given that they selected Heisman Trophy runner-up Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick in this year's NFL Draft. Penix himself has a history of injuries, so taking the Under on Atlanta's win total seems like it could be a strong play.
"We do recommend acting right away on Under 9.5 at +120 at Caesars," Oh says. "The oddsmakers' own models, based on consensus, only project 9.3 wins. If they 100% used their models, they'd set the line at 9.5 and -120 on the Under, but because of the (optimistically high) excitement about the Cousins signing, they know they can charge -140 or more on the Over instead of the +110 they'd offer otherwise."
Additionally, the model has Atlanta winning the NFL South only 26.5% of the time, with even Tampa Bay (34.1%) being more likely to repeat.
In Week 1, the SportsLine Projection model is calling for a close game between the Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, Sept. 8. That contest isn't one of the five with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the season's opening week, but the matchup between the Saints and Panthers is, with New Orleans at -208 on the money line. You can find the other four top-tier Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine.
