No Bo Nix, no problem: Broncos can win AFC Championship thanks to this one, historically lopsided matchup

The Broncos are handing the keys from Bo Nix to Jarrett Stidham on Sunday in the AFC Championship game vs. the Patriots. He will be the first quarterback ever to enter a conference championship start with zero pass attempts on the season. Confidence in Denver is understandably fading as they are on track to be the largest home underdog ever in an AFC or NFC title game (5.5-point underdogs at DraftKings as of Wednesday night). 

Not all is lost, though. The Broncos have a very clear (albeit narrow) path to victory. Sack Drake Maye a ton and don't cough the ball up a million times like C.J. Stroud.

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Tyler Sullivan

Their historic pass rush must dominate a Patriots offensive line that is average at best and has been flat-out inept through two playoff games. The matchup is one sided enough to give Denver a fighting chance and it's actually the biggest mismatch in the trenches in NFL history by one measure. 

The Patriots have allowed 58 sacks and the Broncos' defense has racked up 71 sacks this season, including the playoffs. That's the highest combined total by any team and their opponent entering a game in NFL postseason history (129). The previous high was 128 between the 1985 Bears defense (70 sacks) and the Rams (58 sacks allowed). All that the Bears' defense did was shut out the Rams, force three turnovers and hold the Rams to 130 yards of offense. 

Most times sacked + opponent sacks entering a playoff game 

The Broncos defense isn't the 1985 Bears, but this is a tale as old as time. A great pass rush can subdue a great quarterback. There was a similar mismatch in Super Bowl LVI when the Rams' pass rush was enough to beat Joe Burrow and his vulnerable offensive line. Von Miller, Aaron Donald and company shut Cincinnati down on the final drive to preserve the win. The Eagles destroyed Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offensive line in the Super Bowl last year, and they did it without blitzing. The Giants used this blueprint to beat Tom Brady in two Super Bowls. The Broncos did this the last time they faced the Patriots in the playoffs, too. Brady was pressured 24 times, hit a record 16 times and was sacked four times in the 2015 AFC title game. The Broncos won by two points thanks to a dominant effort from Von Miller (2.5 sacks, four QB hits, one interception) and were able to overcome an OK performance from Peyton Manning, who had nine touchdown passes and 17 interceptions during the regular season.

Drake Maye will have his hands full with this Broncos pass rush

This Broncos team can follow a similar playbook. Drake Maye has been sacked 10 times this postseason and has fumbled six times, the most by any player in the first two games of a postseason on record. 

The Patriots' protection was improved for much of the year, but it's fallen off since rookie first-round pick Will Campbell returned in Week 18 from a knee injury. Campbell has allowed three sacks this postseason, the most in the NFL, and eight pressures. He was victimized by Khalil Mack and Odafe Oweh in the wild card round and Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter in the divisional round. 

If anyone can wreck a game, it's against the Patriots. There have been two players with at least three sacks and multiple forced fumbles in a playoff game this century. Odafe Oweh two weeks ago and Will Anderson Jr. last week. Both against the Patriots. New England somehow won those games. They are already the only team in NFL history to win twice in a postseason while allowing five sacks in a game. I'm not sure that formula will work a third time.

Nik Bonitto ranked third in the NFL in pressure rate this year (19.1%) behind Anderson Jr. and Micah Parsons. He's capable of making a few game-changing plays, as is Zach Allen, the Broncos' interior presence, who is two hits shy of breaking JJ Watt's single-season record for quarterback hits in a season (51, including playoffs). 

It's going to be fascinating to watch what the Patriots learned from their first two playoff games. The internal clock needs to be quicker for Maye as long as Campbell is struggling to protect his blindside. Anderson had an incredible get off on this strip sack against Maye last week:

You can expect more of the same in Denver. Bonitto had the second-fastest get off in the NFL this year and teammate Jonathon Cooper is ranked fourth, per NFL Pro Insights. Who ranked first, you ask? Myles Garrett, who had a franchise-record 5.0 sacks vs. the Patriots earlier this season. 

If Broncos don't get home, then Maye will take advantage

On the flip side, if the Broncos can't exploit this historic mismatch, they are doomed. They need to get a lot of sacks. Pressure won't be good enough alone because Maye has become one of the best off-schedule passers in the NFL. He averaged the second-most yards per dropback vs. pressure this year (5.5), and that's with the 57 sacks against him baked into the equation. If there's pressure in his face, but he isn't sacked, his average rises to an astronomical 8.6 yards per attempt. To put that in perspective, the highest yards per attempt mark by any quarterback not named Drake Maye this year, in all situations (pressure or not) was Sam Darnold at 8.5. Pressure doesn't phase Maye. You need to get home. 

Performance with pressure this season (including playoffs)

Vance Joseph's defense blitzes at one of the highest rates in the league, which could make them vulnerable to areas where Maye thrives if they aren't able to get him on the ground. Maye leads the NFL in almost every category under the sun when he faces extra pass rushers this year. He has 17 touchdown passes and no interceptions when blitzed this season, the most TD passes without a pick by any quarterback in those situations in the last decade. Not even Patrick Mahomes, a notorious blitz shredder, has had a mark like that.

Maye's performance against pressure and his deep ball are the two biggest reasons for his MVP leap this year and they are his ticket to a Super Bowl. The Broncos have a no-fly zone in the secondary and haven't allowed a deep completion in over a month, including limiting Josh Allen to 0-for-8 passing on throws 20+ air yards last week. That was the worst 0-for in deep balls by any QB in a playoff game since Tom Brady's Super Bowl defeat vs. the Giants 18 years ago, which ended the Patriots' undefeated season. Still, when the Patriots afford Maye time to throw against Denver's pass rush, I like Maye's chances in this strength vs. strength matchup. Maye had the third most completions on deep balls this season (38) and his arm was alive and well last week against the Texans. 

Credit Kayshon Boutte on last week's highlight-reel catch. It's also a preview of what will happen in Denver if Maye is given time to throw. He has 12 touchdown passes this year on throws at least 15 yards downfield and outside the numbers this year, the most by any player since Joe Burrow in 2021, when his deep dimes to Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins propelled Cincinnati to the Super Bowl.

The Broncos will live and die by their pass rush and its ability to sack Maye in a lopsided matchup on Sunday. But hey, any path to victory is a good one when you're starting a quarterback who has the same number of pass attempts this season as I have.