Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
Someone in the NFL scheduling department must really love the Atlanta Falcons because for the third time in four weeks, we're getting the Falcons in prime time. To put that in perspective, the Falcons had exactly ZERO prime-time games last year.
Stop trying to make the Falcons happen, NFL. It's not going to happen. (I'll be honest guys, my wife told me it was Mean Girls Day and I took that as a challenge to get a Mean Girls reference in here and that was it: Stop trying to make Fetch happen).
The good news for non-Falcons fans is that if Atlanta's first two prime-time games are any indication, then we're going to be in for an absolutely bonkers night. Both games went down to the wire with Atlanta beating Philadelphia 22-21 in Week 2 before losing to Kansas City, 22-17, in Week 3.
In today's newsletter, we'll be previewing tonight's game, plus we'll be taking a look at who's already on the hot seat.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the bank. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown.
1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Buccaneers at Falcons
The Falcons (2-2) were a popular pick to win the NFC South this year, but if that's actually going to happen, they're going to have to steal the division title away from a Buccaneers team that has won it three straight times and beating them tonight would be a nice start on the path to winning the division. This NFC South showdown will be kicking off from Atlanta at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime.
Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into tonight:
- Why the Buccaneers can win: The easiest way to slow down Baker Mayfield is to get put a lot of pressure on him. Since joining the Bucs in 2023, Mayfield is 6-8 when he's sacked two or more times, but 5-1 when he's sacked one or zero times. That's good news for the Buccaneers in this game, because the Falcons haven't been able to sack anyone. Atlanta has just four sacks through four weeks, which ranks dead last in the NFL. Basically, don't be surprised if Mayfield has time to sit back and pick the Falcons apart tonight.
- Why the Falcons can win: This could be a huge game for Bijan Robinson and that's because he'll be going up against a Buccaneers defense that's giving up an average of 5 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season, which is the fourth-worst number in the NFL. The Falcons have two running backs who can take advantage of that in Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. If those two get going, they should be able to carry Atlanta to a win.
You can get a full preview of the game from Jordan Dajani by clicking here.
If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
- ONE RECEIVING PROP I LIKE: Bijan Robinson OVER 3.5 receptions (-120): The Falcons running back has gone over this number in three of four games this year, including last week's game, when he had four receptions against the Saints. Robinson has turned into a security blanket for Kirk Cousins and Cousins loves to check down to his security blanket, so I won't be shocked if Robinson gets four or more receptions against the Bucs.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Chase McLaughlin OVER 6.5 points (-140): The Buccaneers kicker is averaging 7.75 points per game this year and he's gone over this total in three of Tampa Bay's four games this season. The Bucs aren't afraid to kick field goals, which means we could see McLaughlin pile up the points tonight.
And in case you're wondering, through the first four weeks of the season, my props are 11-9 (5-4 on kicker props and 6-5 on all other props).
We also have a full betting preview from SportsLine that you can check out here.
And finally, here are our picks for a game.
PICKS FOR 'TNF'
Dajani's pick: Buccaneers 21-20 over Falcons
Prisco's pick: Buccaneers 24-20 over Falcons
My pick: Buccaneers 23-20 over Falcons
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, you can see who our eight experts are taking by clicking here.
2. Ranking the NFL's eight divisions from first to worst
Every Tuesday, we unveil Pete Prisco's latest power rankings, where he ranks every team in the NFL. For today, we thought we'd add a twist to that by ranking every division in the NFL. However, I should note that Prisco did NOT handle this ranking. Instead, we gave the job to Cody Benjamin.
Let's take a look at the top four divisions in the NFL, according to Cody:
1. NFC North: Vikings, Lions, Packers, Bears
2. AFC North: Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Browns
3. NFC South: Buccaneers, Falcons, Saints, Panthers
4. NFC West: Seahawks, 49ers, Rams, Cardinals
5. NFC East: Commanders, Eagles, Cowboys, Giants
6. AFC West: Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Chargers
7. AFC East: Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Patriots
8. AFC South: Texans, Colts, Titans, Jaguars
Based on Cody's rankings, the NFC is the more dominant conference this year with four of the top five divisions. The only thing I might consider changing here is bumping up the AFC West. That division has a 4-2 record against the AFC North and 3-1 record against NFC South, which means the AFC West is a combined 7-3 against two of the top three divisions.
If you want to see Cody's full explanation for his rankings, you can check that out here.
3. Hot seat rankings heading into Week 5: NFL coaches who could soon be out of a job
It's not easy to be on the hot seat after just four games, but several NFL coaches have managed to pull that off this year. With the start of Week 5 kicking off tonight, we thought now would be the perfect time to take a look at who's sitting in the hottest seat.
With that in mind, Jordan Dajani unveiled his first hot seat rankings of the season and we're going to look at the five coaches who made his list.
- 1. Doug Pederson (0-4 Jaguars)
- 2. Brian Daboll (1-3 Giants)
- 3. Nick Sirianni (2-2 Eagles)
- 4. Robert Saleh (2-2 Jets)
- 5. Matt Eberflus (2-2 Bears)
If you want to know why each of these coaches made the list, you can read Jordan's full story by clicking here. The most interesting part of these hot seat rankings is the NFC East. If you throw in Mike McCarthy, who's definitely also on the hot seat, we could see three of the four coaches in that division get let go by the end of the year.
4. Ranking the best offensive and defensive play-caller duos
If you're going to win in the NFL, it helps to have good coaching on both sides of the ball, so with that in mind, Jared Dubin decided to rank teams based on who has the best offensive and defensive play-calling duo.
Let's check out the top two teams on his list:
- Chiefs: HC Andy Reid (OC Matt Nagy), DC Steve Spagnuolo. "The Chiefs are the best of the best until further notice. Reid is the best offensive coach of his generation, essentially the counterpart to Bill Belichick on his side of the ball. I'm not sure there are any coaches who have done more to push offense forward over the last two decades than has Reid. Spagnuolo was overmatched during his time as a head coach, but he has been a truly fantastic defensive coordinator, like his generation's Wade Phillips. He always gets his group playing at a high level by the end of the season, and with better personnel on hand last year, had one of the best units in the league."
- Lions: OC Ben Johnson, DC Aaron Glenn. "There's a reason Johnson has been arguably the most sought-after name on the market in each of the last two offseasons. He consistently puts his players in position to succeed; he sequences plays better than almost anyone; and he is willing to do what's working until his opponent proves it can stop it. Glenn has been more up-and-down, but that, again, is largely based on personnel. Whenever he's had the defensive backs to ramp up the aggression up front, his unit has performed quite well."
Dubin ranked a total of 10 coaching duos and you can see his full list here.
5. Grading the NFL Draft's top 10 picks through four weeks
With the NFL season heading into Week 5, that means we've gotten four games of film on this year's rookie class and although that's not a huge sample size, it was big enough for Ryan Wilson to rank the top 10 players from the 2024 Draft. Basically, Wilson took a look at ONLY the top 10 players selected and then ranked them based on who's having the best season so far, and then, he also handed out a grade for each player after ranking them.
Let's check out the top three names on his list, who also happen to be the only three players who got an "A."
1. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (Second overall pick). "Daniels, who is one of the best athletes on the field, has been judicious with when to run, and when he does, he's generally avoided big hits. More impressive, though, is that he's not looking to run. Instead, he's standing in the pocket (thanks to an offensive line that's been better than expected through the first month) and getting through his reads." GRADE: A+
2. Giants WR Malik Nabers (Sixth overall). "Among first and second-year players, Malik Nabers leads the league in team target percentage (38%), receptions (35), receiving yards (386) and plays gaining at least 16 yards (8). Nabers has been so good that he's made Daniel Jones look better. Just throw it in Nabers' general vicinity and he'll take care of the rest." GRADE: A
3. Chargers OT Joe Alt (Fifth overall). "Joe Alt played left tackle at Notre Dame in 2023 and he looks every bit the NFL left tackle, both getting off the bus and when you turn on the tape. ... Alt suffered an MCL injury in Week 3 against the Steelers and T.J. Watt, but he's already answered any questions about whether first-year coach Jim Harbaugh made the right decision to a) draft an offensive lineman, and b) move that offensive lineman to a new position." GRADE: A
If you want to know where Caleb Williams landed on Wilson's list, you'll have to check out Wilson's full ranking here.
6. Extra points: Davante Adams has his eyes set on one team
It's been a busy week in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Davante Adams wants to play for the Jets. The Raiders star would like to be trade to the Jets so that he can reunited with Aaron Rodgers, according to NFL.com. That being said, Adams isn't playing hard ball and he'd apparently be open to playing for another team if the situation is right. The Saints have also been mentioned as a top trade destination because of Adams' familiarity with Derek Carr. You can read the latest details on Adams here.
- Dolphins defensive star out for the year. The hits keep coming for the Dolphins. Jaelan Phillips injured his knee on Monday night and it turned out to be quite a serious injury. The standout linebacker announced that he'll soon be undergoing surgery that will cause him to miss the rest of the season. You can get more details on Phillips here.
- Tyreek Hill won't be demanding a trade. The Dolphins receiver might be unhappy right now, but he won't be seeking a trade. "I'm just focused on right here and right now," Hill said this week when asked about trade rumors. "We got a beautiful team here, and I want to be a part of it." You can check out Hill's full comments here.
- Patriots starting running back might get benched. Rhamondre Stevenson could soon be headed to the bench in New England. Patriots coach Jerod Mayo said on Wednesday that he's considering benching Stevenson in favor of Antonio Gibson. Stevenson has been a fumbling machine this year and that hasn't sat well with Mayo. Please take note if you're like me and you own Stevenson in Fantasy.