Sunday's chapter of Wild Card Weekend concludes at Raymond James Stadium where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will play host to the Washington Commanders.
This is a familiar spot for these teams as they began their 2024 campaigns in Tampa, squaring off back in Week 1. The Bucs came out victorious in that contest, but the emergence of No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels over the course of the season has the Commanders as a dark horse in these playoffs.
On top of that recent history of playing earlier this year, these franchises have been intertwined in the playoffs as well. Washington is seeking its first playoff win since 2005 when it defeated the Buccaneers in this exact spot, on the road during wild-card weekend. Meanwhile, this is the fifth straight season Tampa Bay has reached the playoffs, a run that includes a wild-card win over Washington during the 2020 season.
As we wait for this latest matchup to unfold, let's dive into the nitty-gritty of this contest with our full preview below.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers where to watch
Date: Sunday, Jan. 12 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
TV: NBC | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Buccaneers -3, O/U 50.5 (via SportsLine consensus)
When the Commanders have the ball
Daniels is the straw that stirs the drink in this Commanders offense. The No. 2 overall pick closed the book on a historic rookie season, breaking the regular-season records for the highest completion percentage (69%) and rushing yards (891) by a rookie quarterback. His 4,459 combined passing and rushing yards are also the fourth-most by a rookie all time. That blend of efficiency passing the football and his rushing capabilities have made the LSU product a matchup nightmare at the NFL level.
While Daniels has raised the talent around him, he does have some dynamic weapons at his disposal as well. Brian Robinson Jr. enters these playoffs after a career year in the Commanders backfield. Thanks to the presence of Daniels providing a little more guesswork for opposing run defenses, Robinson had career-best marks in rushing yards (799), rushing touchdowns (8), and yards per carry (4.3). Fellow back Austin Ekeler, who signed with Washington last offseason, ash provided a solid pass-catching presence in the backfield as well.
When Daniels drops back to pass, however, veteran wideout Terry McLaurin is the main target. McLaurin leads the team in every meaningful receiving category, including receptions (82), receiving yards (1,096), and receiving touchdowns (13). Behind him, Zach Ertz has also been a steady outlet in the passing game. That's been particularly true down the stretch where Daniels has looked for him more during scoring opportunities. Ertz has tallied six touchdowns in his last seven games to round out the regular season.
When the Buccaneers have the ball
Sam Darnold has captured a lot of the headlines for his resurgence with the Vikings in 2024, but what Baker Mayfield has done as the Buccaneers starting quarterback over the last two seasons is just as, if not more impressive. The Bucs QB comes into these playoffs after a stellar regular season where he became just the third quarterback ever to record at least 4,500 yards passing, 40 passing touchdowns, and have a 70% or better completion rate. And he did that despite the Buccaneers losing talented wideout Chris Godwin midway through the season.
Of course, Mike Evans continues to be a force at the wide receiver position in Tampa and recorded his 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season in Week 18. He enters the playoffs with 709 receiving yards in the postseason, which is the fourth-most among active players. He should prove to be a difficult matchup for the Commanders secondary along with rookie wideout Jalen McMillan, who has started to heat up. The rookie pass catcher has scored a receiving touchdown in each of his last five games coming into Wild Card Weekend. Another X factor in the passing game -- particularly in the red zone -- could be tight end Cade Otton. He's missed the last three games due to a knee injury but did practice fully to end the week.
In the backfield, Bucky Irving has been a breakout star. His 1,514 yards from scrimmage were the second-most in Buccaneers history and the most by any rookie in the NFL this season. In six of his last seven games to conclude the regular season, Irving topped 90 scrimmage yards.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers key matchup
The emergence of Irving poses a massive problem for the Commanders. One of the weak points in Washington's defense is its inability to stop the run. This season, the unit allowed a 4.8 yards-per-rush average, which was tied for the third-highest in the NFL. Overall, the Commanders surrendered 137.5 rushing yards per game, which was also third-worst in the league. Meanwhile, Irving comes into the playoffs topping 100 yards rushing in three of his last six games, so he is heating up at the exact right time for Tampa Bay and the exact wrong time for the Commanders as they look to pull off an upset.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers prediction
As we noted above, Irving could be the difference-maker in this game. If he gets rolling on the ground, that allows the Buccaneers to dictate the pace of this game and, maybe more importantly, will keep Daniels on the sideline if they can extend drives via the rushing attack. Once Irving gets into a groove and Washington tries to play a little closer to the line of scrimmage to stop him, that's when Mayfield and Evans will strike. That creates a rough matchup for a Commanders team that has struggled on the road, owning a 3-4-1 ATS record.
Projected score: Buccaneers 30, Commanders 23
The pick: Buccaneers -3