The Kansas City Chiefs have turned the AFC West division into a participation trophy for much of the last decade with eight consecutive division titles, the second-longest division winning streak in NFL history. They trail only the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick New England Patriots dynasty teams (11 in a row from 2009-2019) have a longer such streak.
Kansas City, who is 11-1 through 13 weeks, possesses the opportunity to clinch a ninth AFC West title in a row if they can sweep the 8-4 Los Angeles Chargers on "Sunday Night Football." These two division rivals met in Los Angeles back in Week 4, and the Chiefs survived 17-10 after scoring the go-ahead touchdown on a two-yard run by running back Samaje Perine with 6:04 left to play.
Since losing the first matchup in Week 4, which dropped the Chargers record to 2-2, Los Angeles has won six of their last eight games. That has Los Angeles out to their best 12-game start at 8-4 since the 2018 season when they started 9-3. That year, the Chargers went into Arrowhead and left with a win. Will they harken back to that 2018 team on Sunday night or will the Chiefs be celebrating their right to party with a ninth consecutive AFC West title? Let's take a closer look and pick a winner.
Chiefs vs. Chargers where to watch
Date: Sunday, Dec. 8 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
Channel: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Sports betting odds: Chiefs -4, O/U 43
When the Chargers have the ball
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has gone 10 consecutive starts without an interception, the second-longest streak since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger trailing only Tom Brady's 11-game streak in 2010, per NFL Pro. As a result, Herbert leads the NFL in touchdown to interception ratio this season, and he's only the second quarterback in NFL history with one or fewer interceptions in his first 12 starts of the season along with Aaron Rodgers in 2018. Why is that? Herbert has more time than ever to read the field before throwing the football. His 3.13 seconds on his 2024 average time to throw is the fifth-longest in the NFL this season, and it's also the longest of his NFL career by nearly two tenths of a second. The Chargers revamped offensive line will also likely be able to handle Kansas City's consistent blitzing without much of an issue. The Chiefs blitz on 50% of opponent dropbacks, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, but their quarterback pressure rate when blitzing of 30.4% is the fourth-lowest in the entire NFL.
Getting the play-action game going will be critical for Herbert: he completed 8 of his 10 play-action passes for 100 yards and a touchdown in Week 4 against the Chiefs. Otherwise, he hit on just 8 of his 17 non-play action passes in Week 4 versus Kansas City for 79 yards, per NFL Pro. Los Angeles is currently using play-action of 30.9% of their plays, the second-highest rate in the NFL behind only the Detroit Lions 37.8% rate. Kansas City has allowed a 106.7 passer rating on play-action this season, the eighth-highest in the entire NFL. That's an area where Herbert could exploit the defending champs.
When the Chiefs have the ball
In the first matchup, Los Angeles blitzed on 17.6% of Patrick Mahomes' dropbacks in Week 4, their third-lowest blitz rate in a game this season per NFL Pro. Mahomes was sacked on two of the Chargers six blitzes, but he did complete three of his four passes against the Chargers blitz for 62 yards, per NFL Pro.
Mahomes has also played the most conservative brand of football, averaging a career-low 6.2 air yards per pass attempt and throwing deep (throw of 20 or more air yards) on only 6.3% of his pass attempts, which also a career-low rate. Playing like that against the Chargers No. 1 scoring defense, which is allowing an NFL-low 15.7 points per game, may present plenty of difficulty for the Chiefs offense. What Kansas City head coach Andy Reid and Chiefs kingdom put their hope in is that Mahomes seemingly pulls out just enough magic to eek out wins over and over and over again, especially in division games. His 34-5 record (87.2% win percentage) is the best for any quarterback against their own division since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, per CBS Sports Research. Mahomes' Chiefs have also won seven of their last eight games on Sunday night. Will he be able to pull out more magic with a division title on the line?
Prediction
Mahomes and Co. have been begging to get hit with a knockout punch week in and week out despite starting 11-1 in 2024. They have the worst point differential (+54) by a team starting 11-1 or better in NFL history, per CBS Sports Research, and they have won 75% of their games (9 of 12) by seven or fewer points. That's the most of any team in NFL history through 12 games. Playing a close game against Los Angeles' No. 1 scoring defense and Herbert, who has gone over 300 consecutive pass attempts without an interception, 305 to be exact, spells doom for the back-to-back Super Bowl champions.
Pick: Chargers 23, Chiefs 20
Bonus: SportsLine guru R.J. White, who is on a 35-18-2 against-the-spread roll on Los Angeles Chargers games, has released his best bets for the Week 14 Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs SNF matchup. White is leaning Over on the total, but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at SportsLine.
