We are in the late stages of the 2024 NFL regular season, so you know what that means: Saturday games! College Football Playoffs be damned, because we have a Saturday double-header in the NFL. The first of which is a potential playoff preview between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs.
The main storyline around this matchup has been the health of Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The two-time NFL MVP suffered an ankle sprain in the Week 15 victory over the Cleveland Browns, but is officially off the injury report and ready to start on a short week. Even at 13-1, Kansas City still has motivation to compete in order to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the all-important first-round bye. The Chiefs can do that with a win on Saturday.
The Texans and Chiefs lead the NFL this season in wins decided by a single possession. Seven of Houston's nine victories have come in close games, while 10 of Kansas City's 13 wins have come by a single possession. Let's break down this special AFC matchup, but first, here's how to watch the game:
Odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus
Chiefs vs. Texans where to watch
Date: Saturday, Dec. 21 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
TV: NBC | Stream: fubo
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -3.5, O/U 42
Prediction
The Chiefs are looking to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC for the fourth time since Mahomes was first named the full-time starter. Kansas City could also join the 2011 Green Bay Packers and 2020 Chiefs as the only reigning Super Bowl champions to start 14-1 or better.
Mahomes' health and how spry he looks will be a key factor, but how he fares against this Texans defense is probably the matchup to watch. Houston has the No. 4 defense in the league entering this week with 302.4 yards of total offense allowed per game. This unit allows the lowest completion percentage to opposing quarterback (57.7%) and has recorded the second-most interceptions as well (16). The secondary allows an NFL-low 45% completion percentage on throws of 5+ air yards, while cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter rank one and two in completion percentage allowed this season (min. 50 targets). As far as the pass rush goes, Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. are the only duo in the NFL to record 10+ sacks each this season.
However, the Chiefs also have a top five defense, and C.J. Stroud is not known for being a road warrior. He lost to the New York Jets on Halloween night, and defeated the lowly Jaguars in Jacksonville by just three points in Week 13. Check out his career splits from home games vs. road games. Stroud averaging 287.8 passing yards per game at home vs. 217.1 passing yards on the road is certainly something.
Stroud splits
| Games | W-L record | Completion % | Passing YPG | TDs | INTs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home | 15 | 11-4 | 65.64% | 287.8 | 27 | 9 |
Road | 14 | 7-7 | 61.52% | 217.1 | 13 | 5 |
Stroud will have to rely on his top two playmakers if the Texans want to win this game. Joe Mixon has seven games this season with 100 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, which is tied with Saquon Barkley for most in the NFL entering Week 16. However, he's rushed for just one touchdown over the last three games. Nico Collins ranks No. 2 in the NFL with 94.3 receiving yards per game. He missed five games due to a hamstring injury, but is back to full speed. He caught eight passes for 119 yards vs. the Jaguars in Week 13, then caught two touchdowns vs. the Miami Dolphins last Sunday.
If you're giving me the hook at 3.5 in Arrowhead, I'll take it. The Texans are 3-0 against the spread in their last three games vs. teams currently above .500, while the Chiefs are 0-4 against the spread in their last four home games. I do believe Kansas City could be on upset alert as well.
Projected score: Texans 21-20
Bonus: SportsLine guru Larry Hartstein, who is on a 46-30-4 roll on Texans picks, has released his best bets for the Week 16 Chiefs vs. Texans matchup. Hartstein is leaning Under on the total, but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at SportsLine.