Titans at Colts -- Week 14
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis (turf, indoors)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Spread: Colts by 5.5
Records: Colts (8-4, AFC South 2-1); Titans (4-8, AFC South 0-4)
Past results: Three most recent meetings -- Oct. 28, 2012: Colts 19, Titans 13 (OT); Dec. 18, 2011: Colts 27, Titans 13; Oct. 30, 2011: Titans 27, Colts 10. Series record: Colts lead, 22-14.
What matters: The Colts just need to stay hot. In general, they've done well winning games they are expected to win. Sunday, of course, is a game they are expected to win. The last thing a young Indianapolis team needs is doubt creeping in, especially with a playoff push underway. Not only could a loss to Tennessee drop them from an assured playoff spot, but it could send the Colts into a late-season tailspin that could result in their missing the playoffs. Is it likely? Not really, but this game has the potential to make or break the season for Indy.
Who matters: The last time these teams faced one another, Tennessee was starting Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback. Now with Jake Locker back under center, the offense stands to be somewhat more dynamic. The Colts defense has improved greatly since the first meeting -- especially against the run -- so Locker may have to carry the load with running back Chris Johnson taking more of a secondary role. Locker's performance will likely determine the outcome, especially if he -- along with Kendall Wright and Nate Washington -- is able to exploit the banged-up Colts defensive backfield.
Key matchup: Typically, the concern for the Indianapolis defense is dual: first stop the run, then figure out how to match up against opposing receivers. The tables turn this week, as the continued emergence of rookie T.Y. Hilton and steady play of wide receiver Donnie Avery are putting massive pressure on opposing secondaries. The Colts now have three solid weapons -- including Reggie Wayne, of course -- not to mention rookie tight end Coby Fleener, who caught his first career touchdown pass last week. The Tennessee defense will see a totally different Indianapolis offense this time around, and it will be a challenge for the Titans to keep the Colts attack under wraps again.
Injuries of note: Both starting running back Donald Brown (ankle) and starting safety Tom Zbikowski (knee) have already been ruled out. Vick Ballard can ably replace Brown, while Sergio Brown will get his second consecutive start in place of Zbikowski.
Inside stuff: Look for Delone Carter. He has mostly served as a goal-line back, but with Brown out and Ballard expected to see the bulk of the carries, Carter may see his most extensive time this season spelling Ballard.
Connections: Donnie Avery, linebacker Jerrell Freeman and nose tackle Antonio Johnson were all with the Titans at one time or another throughout their respective careers.
Stat you should know: If the game is close again, expect a Colts win. Indy is 7-1 in games decided by seven points or less, with its only loss coming in Week 3 against the Jaguars.
Record watch: Quarterback Andrew Luck continues to move through the record books. He needs just 144 yards to pass Peyton Manning for most yards for a rookie in franchise history, and 456 yards to pass Panthers quarterback Cam Newton for most passing yards as a rookie in NFL history.
Looking ahead: The Colts have a big test next week when they travel to face division leader Houston. Indy then heads to Kansas City to face the Chiefs.
Prediction: Colts 31, Titans 17
For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis from Colts blogger Evan Hilbert, follow @CBSColts.