Cowboys vs. Chargers prediction: Will Dallas defense be able to affect Justin Herbert?
The Cowboys may not have anything to play for by the time they kick off their home finale vs. Los Angeles on Sunday
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6 min read
ARLINGTON, Texas -- While the Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1) enter Week 16 mathematically still alive to reach the postseason with a 0.8% chance according to CBS' SportsLine model, that may not be the case when they take the field on Sunday afternoon against the Los Angeles Chargers (10-4).
That is because there's one, tightrope path for the Cowboys to still win the NFC East: Dallas winning all of their final three games AND the Philadelphia Eagles losing all of their final three games. The Eagles face the 4-10, Marcus Mariota-led Washington Commanders twice, including Saturday night in Week 16. Should Philadelphia, a seven-point road favorite according to DraftKings Sportsbook, take care of business Saturday, Dallas will have nothing to play for on Sunday in terms of title contention. Quarterback Dak Prescott maintains there's still plenty to play for otherwise.
"Yeah, I mean there's a lot to play for. Obviously pride is number one, but yeah, damn sure don't want to have a losing season. What, we've lost two games in a row? Damn sure not trying to lose three. You're not throwing the hat in," Prescott said. "At the end of the day, we may not make the playoffs, but that's when you talk about pride and what this game means to you. Nothing should change: nothing the way we approach this thing, nothing should change. The guys have had a great week of practice, great week of prep. They don't seem like anyone's clocked out or checked out, and that's a credit to the leadership and the guys in the locker room. So yeah, we'll still be playing for a lot."
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Tyler Sullivan
The Chargers are actually playing for something on Sunday: the chance to clinch a play spot in Week 16. If Los Angeles wins and either the Houston Texans lose to the Las Vegas Raiders or the Indianapolis Colts lose to the San Francisco 49ers, the Chargers will be playoff bound.
Where to watch Cowboys vs. Chargers
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 21 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
- TV: FOX | Stream: Fubo (try for free)
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Cowboys -1.5, O/U 49.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cowboys vs. Chargers: Need to know
Can the Cowboys' pass rush pressure Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert?
The Chargers' injury-plagued offensive line is allowing the NFL's second-highest quarterback pressure rate of 41.9%, and Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert has been sacked 49 times, tied for the most in the league, and hit 116 times, the most in the NFL. The question is will the Cowboys' pass rush be able to actually get home and take Herbert down enough for Dallas to win? The Cowboys are generating pressure, their 39.8% quarterback pressure rate is the ninth-best in the NFL, but they aren't sacking the quarterback -- Dallas' 5.8% sack rate is the eighth-lowest in the league.
If Dallas can't sack Herbert, it could be another long day for the Cowboys with Pro Bowl cornerback DaRon Bland (foot) headed to injured reserve for the final three games of the season.
"I feel like maybe the biggest thing is just we're not playing complementary [football] together," Cowboys running back Javonte Williams said on Thursday. "It's kind of lopsided sometimes. We let too much go on defense, so we don't make enough plays on offense. It's always like we're trying to come back in the end, but I feel like we just got to play a complete, full game. It'll show us how talented we are."
Can Dak Prescott overcome Khalil Mack, Chargers pass rush?
Prescott is on pace to become the first Cowboys quarterback ever to lead the NFL in passing yards (3,931) in a season. Dallas' offense is the NFL's No. 4 scoring offense (29.1 points per game) with him distributing the football to two All-Pro caliber wide receivers in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Will he be able to continue his high level of play against a Chargers pass rush that has the NFL's sixth-most sacks (40)? Los Angeles edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu's 12.0 this season are tied for the fifth-most in the league, and he is heating up with 4.0 sacks in the Chargers' last three games. That pass rush then creates a potent, ball hawking secondary led by All-Pro safety Derwin James. The Chargers' 17 interceptions this season are the third-most in the NFL, and 11 of them have come since Week 8, the most in the league in a stretch in which Los Angeles has won six of their last seven games.
That's bad news for Dallas' up-and-down offensive tackle group. Veteran right tackle Terence Steele has allowed 40 quarterback pressures this season, the most in the NFL according to TruMedia, and the Cowboys are starting 2024 seventh-round pick Nate Thomas at left tackle in place of the injured Tyler Guyton (ankle). Thomas has allowed 13 quarterback pressures and two sacks in four starts this season, three of which have been Dallas' last three games.
"Yeah, first, I see a great pass rush. It's usually where it starts, and that's not taking any credit away from the secondary guys. I'm sure that'd be their first answer," Prescott said Thursday. "It starts with Khalil and the rest of the guys up front, getting to the quarterback, and, making guys throw errant passes or throw the ball, or if you're just watching on film, guys are getting hit as the balls going in the air, and that's why you see all different guys making plays on the ball. That's a team thing. And you, it's not just the secondary playing sticky coverage. But that's them understanding one guy's responsibility and playing to the strength of it, and they're a hell of a defense and well coached. We've got to be on it."
Can Prescott get the football to WR George Pickens?
George Pickens has been one of the NFL's best wide receivers this season by any metric, ranking either in the top five or top 10 of every key statistic for the Dallas Cowboys in 2025. However, Pickens has just 67 yards receiving combined across Dallas' last two games, losses against the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer said the Cowboys will look to move Pickens around the formation a little more to get him out of double teams, but Prescott said it's also on other Cowboys outside of just CeeDee Lamb to step up and force defenses to play Dallas more straight up.
"Yeah. Just play through it, for one, on his end. I mean, I know he understands that and says that. Just play faster, harder, even if they've got two guys on," Prescott said. "You will take those two out of there and be the sacrifice at times. But essentially, other guys got to step up, and they've got to take some of that, take that other guy away from him so he can just get back one-on-one and be his best. And so that takes all of us."
| George Pickens this season | NFL Rank | |
|---|---|---|
Catches | 81 | 8th |
Receiving yards | 1,212 | 3rd |
Receiving TD | 8 | T-7th |
Receiving first downs | 64 | 3rd |
| Catches of 25 or more yards | 11 | T-5th |
Cowboys vs. Chargers prediction, pick
Dallas' defense will fail to pressure Herbert enough despite his mash unit of an offensive line, and Los Angeles' defensive front will do just enough to get Prescott off his spot in order for Los Angeles to leave AT&T Stadium with their 11th win of 2025.
Pick: Los Angeles 30, Dallas 20 | Chargers +1.5, Over 49.5
