The Las Vegas Raiders will trade Davante Adams well before the Nov. 5 trade deadline, and a deal may even get struck as early as next week.
But in the meantime, sources tell CBS Sports the Raiders are discussing internally how much of Adams's remaining $13.5 million salary they'd be willing to pay down in order to facilitate a trade of the three-time All-Pro wide receiver.
The Raiders and general manager Tom Telesco are "stuck" on second-round compensation, sources say, and many around the league believe there's pressure from owner Mark Davis to get the deal done at that price. Multiple league executives have told CBS Sports they believe the trade will ultimately get done with a third-round pick and some change.
At the top of the list for Adams has been the New York Jets, which would reunite Adams with his old Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers for another try at a ring. General managers across the league believe Adams will eventually land with the Jets and sources say the team is his top choice, but it's far from certain that he'll be dealt there.
The New Orleans Saints are a legitimate contender for Adams, who would be paired again with his former college and Raiders teammate Derek Carr should he go to New Orleans. The Pittsburgh Steelers are also in the mix among other teams monitoring the situation, sources say.
Adams has been at the center of trade rumors dating to last year, but he didn't formally request a trade until Tuesday. Late last week, people within the Raiders building believed his time with the team was coming to a close.
Rodgers has been recruiting Adams for some time, and the Jets were among the teams to make a call on Adams before the trade deadline last year. But after the Jets' 10-9 home loss to the Broncos, sources say Rodgers' recruitment of Adams intensified.
The Jets haven't been in a rush. Adams' hamstring injury, his salary, the Raiders' compensation request and the team's travel to London this week were all factors in nothing happening this past week. "But the quarterback may be in a rush," a source said.
The 2-2 Jets rank 18th in passing offense and Rodgers is throwing more passes in less than 2.5 seconds at a rate he never has before. Third-year receiver Garrett Wilson has 20 catches for 191 yards through four games as his connection with Rodgers has yet to materialize.
Several sources questioned what happens to the Rodgers-Wilson dynamic if Adams is added to the mix. "Does it help or make it worse?" one source asked.
Should the Jets land Adams, there are teams around the league who would then be interested in one of their receivers. Sources believe the most likely candidate to be traded from the Jets would be Mike Williams, the 30-year-old receiver on a one-year deal who appears to be rounding into form following ACL surgery last year.
For the Jets, one slight issue is a player that's not even in their building: Haason Reddick. He currently counts just $750,000 against the cap thanks to him not showing up. But if he ends his holdout next week for example, he will then count upwards of $9 million against the cap.
Trading for Adams this past week would have meant a team taking on his $13.5 million in remaining salary. Doing so by the trade deadline would mean $8.6 million. It goes down by about $1 million each week.
Almost any team that trades for Adams would need the Raiders to buy down some of his contract to fit under the salary cap. Doing so would facilitate a trade for Las Vegas, likely increase its compensation in return and possibly put more money in Adams' pockets. By getting his salary paid by the Raiders, Adams could enjoy the tax-free benefits of the great state of Nevada compared to, say, a New York-area team.
Sources also believe a level of recruitment will be necessary to land Adams, who has never been a free agent before in his career. Rodgers has gladly been at the helm of that with the Jets, while the Saints have Carr and wide receivers coach Keith Williams, who has known Adams since he was a teenager.
"He's going to be able to control where he goes," said one GM.
Adams technically has two years left on his contract beyond 2024, but for all intents and purposes this season was always the last on his deal. Adams has consecutive years of $35.64 million in base salary, and both years are not guaranteed. No team would pay Adams, who will be 32 in December, that sort of money next year.
So to trade for Adams now would only guarantee getting him as a one-year rental. A trading team could hope to sign him to a reworked deal ahead of a trade, but a general manager who spoke to CBS Sports questioned why Adams would agree to that.
"What if he goes to the Jets and something happens to Rodgers?" said the GM. "He'll probably say 'let me see what it's like here' anywhere he goes."
The Raiders had more than a second-round pick on the table for Adams at last year's trade deadline, multiple sources say. Davis had no interest in dealing Adams and so talks never went far with any team, and the owner fired coach Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler just before the deadline anyway.
Adams' frustrations last year with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo were documented on the Netflix series "Receiver," and eventually interim coach Antonio Pierce benched the veteran for Aidan O'Connell.
Adams was a prominent member of the team who lobbied for Pierce to get the permanent role. When Pierce got the job, Davis decided to pair the first-time coach with a veteran GM in Telesco, who had recently been fired by the Chargers but had never worked with Pierce previously.
Pierce was a driving force in urging Telesco to trade up in the 2024 NFL Draft to nab Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels, whom Pierce had coached at Arizona State years earlier. The Washington Commanders rebuffed all offers to move from the No. 2 slot and drafted Daniels, who's leading the Offensive Rookie of the Year race early as he sets rookie quarterback records. Though the Raiders are 2-2, they haven't gotten great quarterback play from Gardner Minshew, who beat out O'Connell for the job in the preseason.
Not helping matters was Pierce liking an Instagram post early this week intimating Adams has played his last snap as a Raider. Pierce has declined to discuss the social media action, and Tuesday Adams said he had not spoken to his coach.
Soon after, Pierce informed his staff Adams had requested a trade from the team. And as soon as next week, he'll have a new NFL home -- potentially with an old friend.