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We are getting down to the nitty gritty! Just like your fantasy teams, the real-life NFL teams are in the thick of it, knowing that a win or a loss in Week 15, while technically just as important as a win or a loss in Week 1, can cause their seasons to sink or swim. That's the case for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football, and they're hosting the Atlanta Falcons, who will be playing their fourth road game in five weeks and haven't won since before Thanksgiving. 

I'm kind of surprised at how cheap all the any are in this game. Even Bijan Robinson is "just" -140 at DraftKings -- it probably tells us that the oddsmakers aren't expecting a ton of trips to the end zone. 

Keep that in mind when you're putting any wagers in. And when you're predicting who will score: we probably won't have a wide range of players who will find the end zone. But we can still find some winners, so let's get to work. 

If you're new to NFL betting or need a refresher, make sure to check out our NFL betting guide. Also make sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model's forecast for the entire Falcons vs. Buccaneers game.

Top straight bet (spread, money line or total)

Buccaneers -4.5

This is a tough game to handicap. The Falcons are just hanging around, playing spoiler and trying to save jobs. The Buccaneers are reeling after a really bad home loss to the Saints and know a win here would put them in much better position to take the NFC South with a pair of matchups looming against the Panthers. If they lose here (assuming Carolina wins in New Orleans), the mission gets a lot tougher.

Good news for Tampa Bay: Mike Evans appears to be coming back for the Bucs in this one, which should help rally the troops and inspire the offense. Baker Mayfield will (probably) have his full complement of weapons for the first time since the beginning of the season, and that should allow Josh Grizzard to cook up a lot more friendly looks than we've seen from Tampa most of the year. 

The Falcons will probably be able to throw the ball a decent bit here, but if Tampa Bay can limit Robinson and make Kirk Cousins one-dimensional, I really like their chances to pull away here. 

Falcons vs. Buccaneers player props

Chris Godwin Over 3.5 receptions

Touch of juice on this one, but I'm OK with that, because I think Godwin will be the primary underneath option for the Bucs in this one. Mayfield might need to get the ball out quick to avoid contact from a dangerous Falcons defensive front. With Evans and Emeka Egbuka drawing coverage, Godwin should be open underneath.

If there's any need to pass whatsoever, Godwin should get here and it looks like they might be slowly ramping up his snaps, so we're hoping to get something in the range of 72-75% of the offensive plays for the crafty veteran. 

He had three in his first game back and five last week, but should have had one more that he dropped in the end zone against New Orleans. 

Bijan Robinson Over 38.5 receiving yards

I loved hearing my colleague Larry Hartstein give this out on our CBS Sports Network Early Edge show Wednesday, as I can also see Robinson having a big role in the passing game on Thursday night.

Tampa Bay is tough to run against, but will happily (well, not happily, but you get the point) concede receiving yards to running backs. James Cook went for 66 yards against the Bucs, while Zonovan Knight and Michael Carter combined for 80+ in recent weeks. 

Robinson had 100 (!) receiving yards in Week 1 against a much healthier version of this defense as well. The Falcons aren't dummies and will let Kirk Cousins alleviate pressure by dumping it off to Robinson early and often. 

Baker Mayfield Over 19.5 rushing yards

Mayfield is all kinds of banged up, which would generally lead you to believe he won't run in this game. But it's actually the opposite -- see: Justin Herbert on Monday -- as quarterbacks who are hurt are more willing to take off and run to avoid massive shots in the pocket when they can dictate when and how they're contacted out in the open field.

This is also a late-season primetime game at home (it's not quite must-win, but it's close for the stumbling Bucs) and I'd expect Baker to lay it on the line.

Mayfield has cleared this number fairly easily in each of his last four games and I don't see him staying stationary in this matchup. 

TNF anytime touchdown scorer props

Kyle Pitts +235

Normally I'd want to attack Tyler Allegier in this 200 range, but the Bucs are so good at stopping the run, especially in short-yardage areas, I'm a little concerned his vulturing might get vultured. 

So instead we'll roll with Pitts, who, with Drake London out, could be the physical, high-point target down by the goal line for Cousins.

No one's suggesting he's breaking out finally, but he's had two of the most productive games of his career the last two weeks, so maybe he's due for an actual blowup game against a defense that can be gotten in the air. 

Bucky Irving +120

I'm not shocked by this number, but as mentioned above, the touchdowns are really cheap. So we should probably temper expectations for a shootout in this one and stick to lower-priced players with great usage and reasonable numbers.

Enter Irving, who is getting plus money to score a touchdown despite seeing nearly 20 touches per game the last two weeks since returning from injury. 

That kind of usage makes me very intrigued by him at this plus price and turns it into something of a principle play.