One of the reasons why the National Football League is America's most popular sports league -- NFL games accounted for 82 of the United States' 100 most-watched TV broadcasts in 2022 according to Sportico -- is because it's hard to know what could happen next. Since 1990, at least four new teams have made the NFL postseason each year. Given the churn of contenders year-to-year, it makes sense to expect the unexpected when it comes to professional football. Here is a look at five things that have occurred so far through the first seven weeks of the 2023 season that may not have been on many people's radar back in the preseason.
C.J. Stroud and the Texans are a frisky, fun team
When a team is drafting near the top of an NFL draft -- like the Houston Texans were last April with the second overall pick thanks to their 3-13-1 record -- it's expected for that team to struggle out of the gate. That hasn't really been the case for No. 2 pick C.J. Stroud or his Texans. Houston is 3-3 to start 2023 thanks to winning three of their past four games following an 0-2 start. If they defeat top overall pick Bryce Young and the Panthers on Sunday, Houston would be above. 500 for the first time since Week 2 of the 2021 season, snapping the longest active drought in the NFL for not having a winning record.
Much of the early success is thanks to Stroud, whose nine touchdown passes to only one interception has him leading the league in touchdown-to-interception ratio through seven weeks. His 1,660 passing yards are the eighth-most through six games in NFL history, and he started his NFL career with an all-time record 191 passing attempts before his first interception.
C.J. Stroud's notable NFL rankings this season
| NFL Rank | ||
|---|---|---|
Pass Yards/Att | 7.8 | 4th |
TD-INT | 9-1 | 1st |
Passer Rating | 96.4 | 10th |
Stroud has also stood out on on third down, aka "the money down," early on: he has five consecutive games with a passing touchdown on third down, the longest such streak by any rookie since at least 1991. The Texans rebuild could end up being much shorter than expected thanks to Stroud's immediate impact.
The 'Tush Push' doesn't work for everybody
There was plenty of chatter this past offseason about the NFL potentially banning the reigning NFC champion Eagles' quarterback sneak formation, now well known as the "Tush Push" because multiple players line up behind quarterback Jalen Hurts and help shove him forward for first downs and touchdowns. According to the CBS Sports research department, the Eagles were 4-for-4 in converting on it on Sunday in their "Sunday Night Football" victory over the Miami Dolphins, running their tally to 41-of-44 over the last two years, a 93.2% conversion rate. There aren't many things in life more certain than the Eagles picking up the yards they need to gain on this play.
The unexpected part of this play is that the rest of the league hasn't come close to experiencing the same success when running it: the next closest team has only 11 conversions since 2022 while in 2023, the rest of the league has whiffed 13 times when using it. The NFL is nothing if not a copycat league, and the other 31 teams not having similar production on a play that looks so easy to execute is mind-boggling, especially after the rest of the league had months to study and practice it in the offseason.
"Push Play" Success Rates Around The NFL This Season:
- Eagles: 17/20 - 85.0%
- Everyone Else: 33/46 - 71.7%
Rams fifth-round rookie Puka Nacua leads the NFL in catches
With All-Pro wide receiver Cooper Kupp missing the first four games of the 2023 season, plenty of targets were up for grabs in the Rams offense. That didn't necessarily mean one player was going to be able to step up and fill the void left by his absenc, but shockingly, that's exactly what has happened as Puka Nacua's 58 catches are the most in the league through the first seven weeks, making him the first rookie with at least a share of the NFL lead in receptions through seven weeks since Eagles tight end Keith Jackson in 1988.
Nacua, a 2023 fifth-round pick out of BYU, has 752 receiving yards through his first seven games the second-most by a player in NFL history, trailing only Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase's 754 in the 2021. With just a single catch against the Cowboys in Week 8, Nacua will take sole possession of the record for the most catches in a player's first eight career NFL games in league history. His 58 are currently tied with Giants running back Saquon Barkley's 58 that he had through the first eight games of his 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year season in which he ended up leading the NFL with 2,028 scrimmage yards. Turning a fifth-round rookie into potentially the heir apparent to Kupp right away is downright unexpected. Even with Kupp in the lineup once again, Nacua is still balling out: he recorded 154 receiving yards on eight catches against the Steelers in Week 7.
Sam Howell is on pace to become the most-sacked QB in a single season in NFL history
When the Commanders hired associate head coach and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy away from the Super Bowl champion Chiefs, it was understandable there would be some growing pains. Having first-time starting quarterback Sam Howell, a fifth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, on pace to take a beating not seen since the Texans' inaugural season back in 2002 after entering the league as an expansion franchise was not on the 2023 season bingo card.
Former Texans quarterback David Carr, the first overall pick in the 2002 NFL Draft, was treated to expansion team experience as a rookie: he was sacked an NFL-record 76 times in 16 games. Fast forward to 2023 and second-year quarterback Sam Howell, a fifth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, is on pace to leave that figure in the dust. Howell has absorbed an NFL-high 40 sacks in seven games this season. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is the second-most sacked quarterback in the league this season with fewer than 30 sacks taken, 28 to be exact.
Howell is on pace to be sacked 97 times this season, which would beat Carr's record by 21 sacks. Sacks are a statistic that a quarterback can control even with a shoddy offensive line. The Commanders 38.7% quarterback pressure rate allowed ranks 24th in the NFL, not great, but it's not too far from average. The Colts rank 16th in quarterback pressure percentage allowed at 35.1%. Howell's average time to throw of 3.05 seconds is the ninth-longest in the NFL, perhaps calling into question his anticipation, instincts and pocket awareness. Those questions only intensified after Howell took six sacks in a 14-7 loss at the Giants in Week 7, a team that had recorded just five sacks in 2023 through the season's first six weeks. Howell might not end up being the guy for the long haul in Washington, but this level of futility when it comes to keeping their quarterback upright is astounding.
Derek Carr struggling with Saints despite finally playing with a strong defense
Derek Carr simply wasn't equipped to play complimentary football with the Raiders. During his nine seasons with the Raiders from 2014-2022, they allowed 26.2 points per game, the most in the NFL in that span. Yet, Carr was productive, finishing his tenure as the franchise's all-time leader in passing yards (35,222) and passing touchdowns (217). He even set NFL records for the most the most upset wins (33), game-winning drives (33) and fourth-quarter comebacks (28) by any quarterback through nine NFL seasons since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.
After being released this past offseason, Carr signed a four-year, $150 million contract to be the Saints' new starting quarterback. The move paired him with a team that has perennially been a top-10 scoring defense -- New Orleans had a top-10 scoring defense in 2020, 2021 and 2022 -- and 2023 is no different. They are allowing 18.1 points per game in 2023 (the seventh-fewest in NFL). One would think Carr would thrive having the support of that caliber of defense alongside of him, but nope. Carr is instead averaging the fewest yards per pass attempt (6.3) since his 2014 rookie season when he averaged 5.5 yards per pass attempt. His 82.8 passer rating in 2023 also currently ranks as his worst since his rookie year when he totaled a 76.6 passer rating. He is coming off of consecutive defeats with over 300 passing yards on 50 or more passing attempts. Throwing to Chris Olave, a second-year first-round pick wideout whose 1,042 receiving yards as a rookie in 2022 were the second-most in his class, wide receiver Michael Thomas, the all-time record-holder for most catches in a single season (149 in 2019) and Pro Bowl running back Alvin Kamara should be enough for Carr to thrive or at the very least play like an above average starting quarterback.
Instead, he and the Saints have lost four of their last five games after a 2-0 start, which has them sitting at 3-4 and in third place in the NFC South. If Carr doesn't turn things around soon, the Saints front office may start to have buyer's remorse.
