Here's why Anthony Richardson is the most boom-or-bust quarterback since the merger

Small sample size alert! But, Anthony Richardson's three games in 2024 make him the most boom-or-bust QB since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger.

At least that's what the stats say. 

Let's start with the positive. He leads the NFL in yards per completion (16.2) this year. That would actually be the highest by any quarterback in a season since 2000 ahead of Donovan McNabb (14.7 in 2006), according to my colleague R.J. White. 

This throw (which is one of the best dimes ever) definitely played a part in bringing that average up. 

On the other hand, Richardson ranks last in the NFL in completion percentage (49.3) and interceptions (six) this season. 

That completion rate would be the fourth-lowest in a season since 2000, along with some major draft busts.

 Lowest comp pct by qualified QBs since 2000

It must be incredibly frustrating as a Colts fan to see Richardson make a throw like the one above then miss a throw like this:

Or make a decision like this:

Or this.

And this.

Sidenote. A Richardson "Dos Equis" commercial would go something like this. "I don't complete passes often, but when I do, they go for a million yards."

It's that unique combination that creates a rare statistical profile. 

Now, it's unlikely the numbers hold for an entire season, so being the stats junkie that I am, I looked at similar three-game spans. The sample is small, but is still very rare and fits the profile of Cam Newton, Michael Vick, Tim Tebow and Randall Cunningham.

• Prior to Richardson, the last player with a completion rate below 50% and 15-plus yards per completion in a three-game span was Newton in 2016 (minimum 50 attempts).
• Three players since 2000 have had a completion rate below 50%, a yards per completion of 15-plus and 100 rushing yards in a three-game span: Richardson, Vick, Tebow.
• Finally, hang with me here! He is the first player with completion rate below 50%, 15-plus yards per completion, 100 rushing yards and six-plus interceptions in a three-game span since Cunningham in 1985. It was the first three games of his career.

That's a lot of qualifiers. I get it. But, let's not call it cherry picking. This is the reverse Russian nesting doll stat method.  

More than anything it's to show you who has done anything remotely close to what Richardson is doing. 

Plus, getting Richardson and "The Ultimate Weapon" (aka Cunningham) in the same note is worth it. 

I know I said Richardson is very unlikely to keep up these numbers for an entire season because they are such outliers, but let's live a little. What if he did? 

As things currently stand, he's the only qualified quarterback in the last 35 seasons with a completion rate below 50% and 15-plus yards per completion in a season. As you can see in the scatterplot below, no player has finished a season in this territory.

But, it gets better. Let's look at the net gain here. Richardson completing a pass is less than a 50-50 proposition, but the end game is still 8-plus yards per attempt.

The last quarterback with a completion rate below 50% and 8-plus yards per attempt in a season was Joe Namath in 1968, the year of "the guarantee" (minimum 250 attempts). 

This means this current version of Richardson is the most boom-or-bust QB since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger. His 2024 season would be the only one to meet those parameters. 

If that doesn't convince you, I'll leave you with this for a chuckle. 

Richardson has a higher completion rate on throws 50-plus yards downfield (66.7%) than he does on attempts behind the line of scrimmage (62.5%) this year. 

Now, I have no idea if Richardson will be more like JaMarcus Russell and Tebow, or Newton and Cunningham. He has just over 500 passes under his belt between college and the pros. 

But, so far his game and the numbers are a sight to behold.