While the Bills' decision to trade Stefon Diggs to the Texans was likely influenced by frustrations with the receiver's off-field actions, his declining production and age likely sparked the idea in the first place.
Cryptic tweets and a rare sideline tirade from Diggs were dismissed as nonissues when he provided elite-level productivity in his 20s. We can argue in perpetuity whether it was causation or just correlation, but these are the facts: Diggs arrived in Buffalo in 2020, led the NFL in catches and receiving yards, Josh Allen ascended to superstardom, and Buffalo won the second-most games in the NFL behind the Chiefs across a four-season span.
And the first six games of 2023 were magical -- Diggs caught 49 passes for 620 yards with five touchdowns. He was on-pace for career highs across the board. Then he and the Bills offense hit a snag. Diggs' averages dipped to six grabs and 62 yards per contest -- down from eight and over 103 per in the next four games. The slump led to an offensive coordinator change, which revitalized Buffalo's offense. Yet Diggs emerged as a shell of his former self.
The Bills went from 17th in EPA per drop back from Week 7 through Week 10 to sixth in that advanced-stat category under then new and current offensive coordinator Joe Brady from Week 11 through the end of the regular season. Diggs' production didn't track with the team's rejuvenated effectiveness down the stretch.
He averaged five catches and 45 yards during Buffalo's 6-1 November through early January surge to the No. 2 seed in the AFC and caught 10 passes for a 73 yards in two playoff games.
And there's been no buyer's remorse early on in Diggs' tenure with the Texans. He's caught 25 passes for 233 yards with two receiving scores (along with one rushing touchdown) as Houston has started 3-1 for the first time since 2016.
What have the Texans been doing differently with Diggs than the Bills?
Here's a straight-forward comparison of Diggs' production, and the last two columns paint a pretty clear picture as to his vastly different role in Houston:
| Stefon Diggs | Slot % | Average Depth of Target | Missed Tackle Forced % | % of tgts 20+ yds downfield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 with Texans | 61.1% | 6.5 yards | 0% | 6.3% |
2023 with Bills | 35.7% | 10.6 yards | 17.9% | 14.9% |
Now, Diggs' catch production has been about the same -- 6.25 snags per game thus far in Houston, and he averaged 6.15 receptions per contest with the Bills in 2023.
Vitally though, he's seeing far less man coverage. Entering this Week 5 tilt against the Bills, Diggs has run 6.75 routes per game against man coverage. With the Bills in 2023, Diggs faced man coverage on 11.89 routes per game.
As for his zero missed tackles forced to date, how the 2023 concluded for Diggs hinted he would need to settle into more of a possession role that didn't require much YAC juice regardless of where he was playing. In his final seven games in Buffalo, including the playoffs, Diggs forced just two missed tackles on 34 receptions.
Not since 2016, his second year in the NFL with the Vikings, has Diggs been predominantly utilized in a chain-moving slot role. That year, he ran routes from the inside alignment 62.9% of the time, and his average depth of target was 8.7 yards, both reasonably close to where he is now with the Texans.
That season in Minnesota, Diggs caught 84 passes for 903 yards and three touchdowns in 13 games. Across 17 games, that 2016 pace equates to 110 receptions for 1,181 yards and roughly four touchdowns. And it doesn't feel like a leap assuming the Texans would be thrilled if Diggs provided that type of production.
Nico Collins has begun to cement himself as not only the Texans' clear No. 1 receiver but one of the best wideouts in football -- he currently leads the NFL in receiving yards and is second in catches. Therefore, Diggs operating as an underneath separator with a contrasting yet complementary skill set to Collins, a tall, long-striding, sleek downfield specialist, is ideal within the Texans offense.
Diggs didn't play like an All-Pro in the second half of 2023. He wasn't winning as frequently on the outside and/or against man coverage in Buffalo.
And the Texans have accepted that. They've placed him in an entirely different role, instead accentuating his quickness and route-running savvy from the slot where most of his targets have come on short, high-percentage throws from C.J. Stroud.
At this stage of his career, given what transpired late in the 2023 season, not expecting -- or even asking -- Diggs to be the explosive playmaker he once was is the only way for the Texans to get proper value for the soon-to-be 31-year-old wideout who cost a second-round pick to acquire from the Bills.