We say goodbye to Monday night NFL action for the season, as Wild Card Weekend concludes with the fifth-seeded Minnesota Vikings (14-3) take on the NFC West champion and fourth-seeded Los Angeles Rams (10-7) in a regular-season rematch. The game was moved to Glendale, Ariz., due to the wildfires in L.A. The Vikes are -2.5 with a total of 47.5, and the spread rose by a point and a half with the Rams losing home-field advantage. The winner of this matchup visits Philadelphia.
Winning a division is paramount in the NFL, and that's why the Rams are one of three teams with worse records than their opponent that are hosting games during the Wild Card Round. The other two were AFC South winner Houston and NFC South champion Tampa Bay. Both finished 10-7 as well during the season, and they split their playoff games (Texans won, Bucs were upset). It was going to be Los Angeles' first playoff game at SoFi Stadium since it beat Cincinnati in Super Bowl LVI. Meanwhile, Minnesota's 14 victories are the most ever for a wild card team.
The Rams are trying to become the first team to reach the Super Bowl after a 1-4 or worse start through five games. L.A. was 1-4 entering its Week 5 bye but then turned things around. But via the SportsLine Projection Model's power ranking, the Rams are the worst of the 14 playoff teams with a minus-19 point differential on the season and were rather fortunate to win three games down the stretch despite not scoring 20 points in any of them (ahead of the meaningless Week 18 loss to Seattle when their starters rested).
Entering Wild Card Weekend, the model gave Sean McVay's club a 4.5% shot (equates to +2122 odds) at winning the NFC title and a 1.4% (+7043) chance to win the Super Bowl. At DraftKings, Los Angeles is +1800 and +5000, respectively.
At least the NFL did the Vikings a solid and scheduled this as the Monday night game instead of having Minnesota on a shorter week after playing the NFC North winner-take-all game in Detroit on Sunday night in Week 18. Sam Darnold has been a revelation this season for Minnesota, as he's a top contender to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year and definitely made himself a lot of money heading toward free agency.
But Monday could be his final game with the franchise -- maybe Minnesota slaps the franchise tag on him if 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy isn't progressing well in his surgical rehab -- and even potentially the last for highly respected head coach Kevin O'Connell. Rumors abound that some team will make the Vikings a godfather trade offer for the likely NFL Coach of the Year. Vikings ownership reportedly has no interest, but O'Connell's contract is up after next year. He was a former offensive coordinator under Sean McVay with the Rams. Head coaches are 11-2 SU vs. their former assistants in the playoffs in the past 20 seasons.
So how much did losing that Lions game and the top seed matter in the grand scheme of things? Per the model, Minnesota as the No. 1 seed would have had an NFC-best 24.7% shot (+305) at winning the conference title game and 9.3% chance (+975) to win the Super Bowl. But having dropped to No. 5, those numbers entering Wild Card Weekend were 7.4% (+1251) and 3.1% (+3126), respectively. At DK, Minnesota is +650 to win the NFC and +1400 to win its first Super Bowl.
We'll take you through every aspect of the Vikings-Rams game that you need to know before you lock in your bets, including sportsbook promos and the best odds, along with SportsLine expert picks, props, trends, DFS, injury information and everything else that will help you know which plays are worth making for the prime-time matchup.
Get updated lines and picks on SportsLine's game forecast page for this matchup.
Betting on MNF: Vikings vs. Rams
Including a handful of playoff games and a stop in St. Louis, the Rams lead the all-time series 27-19-2 and have won the past three (2-0-1 ATS). They were 2.5-point home dogs in Week 8 (total 46.5) but upset Minnesota 30-20 on a Thursday night. Matthew Stafford had four touchdown passes and Los Angeles scored in every quarter. Demarcus Robinson caught two of those TDs, and it was also the first game back from multiple-game injury absences for Rams star wideouts Cooper Kupp (TD catch) and Puka Nacua (106 yards). Los Angeles native and former USC star Sam Darnold had two first-quarter TD passes, but Minnesota was held to two field goals in the final three quarters.
This marks the first postseason matchup between the clubs since January 2000, when the St. Louis Rams won a home shootout on the way to winning the franchise's first Super Bowl title.
Best betting odds and lines for Vikings vs. Rams on MNF
| Money line | Spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
Vikings | -140 (Bet365) | -2.5 (-110, multiple) | Over 48.5 (-108, DraftKings) |
Rams | +122 (FanDuel) | +2.5 (-110, multiple) | Under 47.5 (-110, FanDuel) |
Expert picks for Vikings vs. Rams on MNF
The SportsLine Projection Model is projecting the final score to land near on the consensus total of of 47.5, but subscribers can see which side of the Vikings-Rams spread is the best value according to the model at SportsLine or on the CBS Sports app. Expert R.J. White is on a 71-39-5 roll (+2818) on Vikings picks, and he's leaning Over. He also shared his Vikings-Rams spread pick at SportsLine.
Other SportsLine experts have also weighed in on several props for the game. Larry Hartstein (136-98 on NFL player props) points out how Kyren Williams had a good first game vs. Minnesota. Daniel Vithlani, up nearly +1400 on NFL player props, is rather pessimistic on Sam Darnold. Those picks and more are available for SportsLine members on the website or the CBS Sports app.
Sportsbook betting promos for Vikings vs. Rams on MNF
Those looking to bet Monday night's game may want to consider doing so with the current DraftKings Sportsbook promotion. New users at DraftKings can get $200 in bonus bets after placing their first wager of $5 or more.
Check out more welcome promotions from key sportsbooks below.
What to know before betting Vikings vs. Rams
Minnesota Vikings
Injuries
- Out: DL Patrick Jones II (knee).
- Questionable: RB Cam Akers (illness), DL Taki Taimani (ankle).
Jones is a backup, as is Taimani, who is in his 21-day evaluation window as he attempts to return from injured reserve.
Trends
The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their past five games and 4-1 SU in the past five away from home. They're 4-2 ATS in their previous six against the NFC West but 1-4 ATS in their past five January games. They have covered the first-half spread in 13 of the past 19, but the fourth-quarter spread in just one of the past eight on the road. The Over is 9-1 in Minnesota's past 10 against the Rams. The first-quarter Over is 8-3 in the Vikings' past 11 road games, and the third-quarter Over is 9-3 in their past 12 overall.
Los Angeles Rams
Injuries
- Out: None
- Questionable: None
Right tackle Rob Havenstein was questionable last week but got in a full practice Saturday and will play.
Trends
The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their past six overall, 4-1 ATS in their past five in January and 5-2 ATS in their past seven vs. the NFC. However, they're 1-6 SU in the previous seven vs. NFC North foes. They have covered the first-quarter spread in just three of their past 17 overall but managed to cover the second-half spread in eight of their past nine at home (technically still the home team here). The Under is 4-2 in L.A.'s past six overall and 5-0 in the team's past five on a Monday. The third-quarter Over is 12-5 in the team's past 17 overall but the first-half Under 14-6 in the past 20.
Weather in Glendale, Ariz.
State Farm Stadium is a dome. This is not the first time a game has been moved to Arizona due to California wildfires. In 2003, a Monday Night Football game between the Chargers and Dolphins was moved to Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe. This marks only the second time in NFL history that a non-Super Bowl postseason game hasn't been played at a team's home stadium – the 1936 NFL Championship Game between Green Bay and Boston was the other.
The matchup
Minnesota was definitely on the wrong side of history as the first 14-victory team to not win its division. This season was the first with three 14-win teams in a conference with Detroit and Philadelphia as the others, and it just so happened to work out that the Vikings are the only one of the trio without a guaranteed home playoff game. They seek their first playoff victory since that controversial OT win in New Orleans following the 2019 season.
If I were a Vikings fan, I'd be a bit worried that Sam Darnold is finally turning into the player who once saw ghosts while looking like a bust with the Jets. In the 31-9 Sunday night loss in Detroit to conclude the regular season, Darnold set season lows in completion percentage (43.9%), passing yards (166; third-fewest in franchise history by a QB with at least 40 attempts) and yards per attempt (4.0). Darnold's five overthrown incompletions were his most since that 2019 "seeing ghosts" game vs. New England, his 20% off-target rate was the second-highest of his career and his red-zone completion percentage of 18% was the worst by any NFL quarterback with at least 10 attempts in a game since 2019.
And it's not like the Lions were near full strength defensively, but maybe they just have Darnold's number. He was 0-2 against the Lions with a passer rating of 75.9 compared to 14-1 vs. everyone else with a rating of 106.3. With two terrific wideouts in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, Darnold led the NFL in completions (34) and completion percentage (49.3%) on throws of at last 20 yards downfield this year.
The last QB to lead in both categories was Drew Brees in 2009, and he led the Saints to their only Super Bowl title that season while winning the game's MVP honors. Darnold looks to become the first QB to win his first career playoff start while playing for at least his fourth team since Pittsburgh's Tommy Maddox in 2002. For tonight, his passing yardage is set with an over/under of 267.5 yards. He's -190 for at least two TD passes and -110 for an INT.
Jefferson was fairly quiet against the Lions but did get to 1,500 yards on the season, becoming the sixth player all-time to have three seasons with at least 1,500 receiving yards. Only Jerry Rice has more. Jefferson's career mark of 96.5 receiving yards per game is No. 1 in the NFL, and his prop tonight is at 90.5. No. 2 on that career list? Second-year L.A. wideout Puka Nacua at 88.4 YPG.
Monday also could be the last game as Vikings defensive coordinator for Brian Flores with the former Dolphins head coach interviewing for a few top jobs. Flores' unit ranked second in the NFL in defensive EPA, tied for first with 33 takeaways and tied for fourth in sacks (49). In the loss to the Rams, Minnesota didn't sack Matthew Stafford once. It's a high-risk, high-reward scheme. The Vikings were one of a few teams to have two players with double-digit sacks: Jonathan Greenard with 12 and Andrew Van Ginkel with 11.5 -- the second-most of any duo in the league. Van Ginkel was also the only player in the league with two pick-sixes.
The Rams became the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs after being at least three games below .500 in back-to-back seasons. Los Angeles is just the second 10-win team ever to have zero victories by double digits (1978 Houston Oilers) and is the only playoff team with a negative points differential from the regular season (-19). No team has ever made a conference title game with a points differential that low.
It's not exactly rocket science for the Rams -- they're good when their Big 4 of Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Nacua all play. Los Angeles is 14-6 in the past two seasons (including playoffs) when all four suit up, but 6-9 when at least one is out. All of them got Week 18 off. Stafford has 11 TD passes and just one pick in his past seven overall. He's -120 for an INT tonight.
Kupp, the former Super Bowl MVP, has seven receiving TDs in seven career playoff games and his average of 93.1 receiving yards in the playoffs is the third-most in postseason history with a minimum of five games played. Nacua has played one postseason game in his career and had nine catches for 181 yards and a TD in last season's 24-23 wild card loss in Detroit. From Weeks 8-17 this year, Nacua ranked first in the NFL in yards after the catch (501), was tied for first in receiving first downs (46), and ranked second in both receptions (75) and receiving yards (955).
Williams finished the season ranked second in rushing first downs (85), tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns (14) and was seventh in rushing yards (1,299). All three were career highs. He's only the sixth Rams running back with at least 14 rushing scores and has the shortest anytime TD odds at -135 for Monday, followed by Jefferson (-115) and Nacua (+110).
Los Angeles pass-rusher Jared Verse is the favorite to take home Defensive Rookie of the Year. He led all rookies in pressures (77), hurries (56) and quarterback hits (18) and tied for second in tackles for loss (11) and fifth in sacks (4.5). Teammate Braden Fiske may finish second for DROY as he had team-high 8.5 sacks, the third-most by a rookie in franchise history. His three multi-sack games are the most by a rookie in team history.
We mentioned how sack-happy the Vikings were. The Rams offensive line finished the season first in penalties per game (5.56), sixth in sacks allowed (31), sixth in quarterback sack rate (5.3%), tied for seventh in fewest hurries allowed (132) and 11th in pressures allowed (191). In Week 17 (starters were out in Week 18), the offensive line did not allow a sack for the fourth consecutive game, tied for the longest streak in franchise history.