Everyone is all freaked out over the rash of injuries again this preseason, and while the numbers historically might not be that much higher than the norm, whenever star players go down in exhibition games it's going to get people talking.
So what can be done about it?
Well, the preseason isn't going to be truncated anytime soon. Let's be real. This is a business and the NFL isn't about lowering revenue streams. Cutting games? I wouldn't hold my breath.
Not without there being a catch -- the 18-game regular season, you'll recall -- so let's consider that a nonstarter. But at a time when guys are going down with injuries daily and with coaches complaining they don't get enough practice time and often don't have enough bodies to get through the work they have prescribed for that day, let's try to get a little creative here.
I checked in with execs who are far smarter than I am and we may or may not have had a few drinks as we kicked this problem around. The solution? I found at least moderate support for the following proposal. Take the offseason roster from 90 men to 100, with a catch.
If we are trying to give coaches the ability to rest key veterans more for certain practices and preseason games and still have the right numbers to get work done, well, why not try this. Each day after, say, the first week of the camp, a coach can designate up to 10 veterans for a day off and he has the extra 10 roster guys to use for those reps.
This system would provide a buffer of sorts, and you wouldn't have to use all 10 veteran exemptions each day, but, by this time of the preseason, when most teams will have as many as 20-30 guys who are either ruled out for some period of time or limited in what they can do, those extra 10 spots to play around with can be essential.
Yes, it would cost owners some money feeding and equipping and carrying those other roster spots through the offseason, but let's face it -- these are mostly guys on minimum salary benefit deals or split deals and the investment, if it saves even one key starter from injury, would be well worth it.
The guys I went over this with thought it was at least worthy of some food for thought, and something for the competition committee to perhaps study and potentially recommend. I also whole-heartedly support having concussion exemptions as a roster stipulation so a player recovering from a concussion doesn't have to go on IR or anything like that, but also wouldn't count against the daily allotment of 53-players on the roster to help get through practice, etc.
Investing in player costs -- even on guys who you don't think will ever take a meaningful snap for you -- is going to be something owners are increasingly willing to invest in if problems like this are really going to be tackled head on. The roster sizes have often seemed arbitrary to me and others -- regular season and preseason -- and while sometimes less is more, in the human grind that is the NFL, having sufficient, capable bodies would at least be a good start.
Why Eli isn't going anywhere
If you ask the New York Giants, and probe around on Eli Manning, you'd get the sense that while the Giants have a substantial amount of money on the table for the quarterback and they'd love to get a deal done, they won't go totally bonkers to get it done. They won't set new thresholds and, they'd tell you, this is a huge year for Manning and that if he doesn't take what's on the table they'll franchise him, assuming he has a strong season. And if he doesn't, well … maybe he won't be.
That's where I find it hard to suspend disbelief. I personally don't see any way at all he leaves New York. I understand having a company line and I understand the delicate stage in which they are in with these negotiations and the need to take a stand at times and present a bit of a tough tone. I just don't think I can buy, even if Manning has one of those years where his picks are up, that he hits the market as an unrestricted free agent at age 35 with two Lombardi Trophies under his belt.
If I'm them, I'm whispering all of the same things. That's what I want out there. I want Manning to not be too comfortable or take anything for granted and I want to create as much leverage as I can. But there's also no debating they're willing to pay him over $20 million a year and that he's going to at the very least be making about what Ben Roethlisberger is on his new deal.
And if Manning does indeed end up gambling on himself and not taking the significant money on the table, even if he struggles some -- and I think he's going to soar in Ben McAdoo's offense if he gets a modicum of pass protection -- it's hard to find a scenario outside of a catastrophic injury where he still isn't worth roughly $21M a season.
Now, I'm not going to be in rush to give him a ridiculous guarantee that far outweighs his market. I also know it can be tricky to get a deal like this done with agent Tom Condon, who generally wants to wait as long as he possibly can before doing big quarterback extensions (it generally only helps their long-term value).
And if Manning wants to make the case he's worth significantly more than Big Ben, well, good luck with that. But in the end that franchise tag is a tremendously valuable weapon for clubs, for a franchise quarterback it's still a bargain for the most part, and it's going to take a lot of convincing for me to see a scenario where Manning is on the open market come March.
Why Glennon is top QB trade chip
There is going to be a contending team that loses a quarterback, or a potentially-contending team that isn't satisfied with what it is getting from its starter. And there will be trade options. Several of them.
I had a personnel man I trust -- and whose evaluations have been pretty damn good over the years -- rank the available trade options. This guy was pretty adamant that the Buccaneers' Mike Glennon would be the most sought-after trade chip in this scenario.
"He's better than a lot of guys starting in this league," he said.
With Jameis Winston in town and the Bucs a rebuilding team, and Glennon getting deeper in his rookie deal, this makes a lot of sense. The Bucs need draft picks and Winston will do well to have a veteran backup around him moving forward -- a guy who has already seen everything.
Next up would be Tennessee's Zach Mettenberger, who is in a similar spot with Marcus Mariota in charge of the Titans offense possibly for the next decade. There will be some trade interest.
This exec put Kirk Cousins next on the list -- though this guy is by no means a Cousins fan -- but that quarterback probably has more value to the Redskins than to any other team, given their tenuous situation with RG3.
And last would be Ryan Mallett, who has long carried character issues with many teams, and whose sleeping through practice routine after losing out on the starting job in Houston did him no favors. This exec doesn't like Mallett's delivery or makeup and doubts the Texans could get much of anything for him.
Why Moss isn't making a comeback
There has been some chatter lately about a Randy Moss comeback -- and while the dude looks like he could still ball -- I'd be exceedingly surprised if anything came to pass. Moss would be incredibly picky about any opportunity -- short of playing with Peyton or Brady I frankly don't seem him budging from his broadcasting gig -- and from what I gather teams aren't really biting. At least not yet. The Pats, in particular, are thin at receiver already, as evidenced by the Reggie Wayne signing, and Bill Belichick loves him some Randy Moss, so I wouldn't quite say never there, but the reality is any return to the NFL is highly unlikely.
Speaking of receivers …
Two receiver injuries I'd continue to be increasingly concerned with? Breshad Perriman of the Ravens and Alshon Jeffery of the Bears, both of whom are allegedly dad-to-day. Perriman's first preseason has been entirely lost at this point and he will be well behind the curve whenever he does get on the field. Jeffery, obviously, is far more established, but he hasn't seen the field for weeks and has very little cover in this offense now. Brandon Marshall is a Jet, while Kevin White is lost for his rookie season, and with Martellus Bennett possibly wearing out his welcome in Chicago, I'd be a little worried about Jeffery as well when he comes back. This is a very different scenario than Jeffery has had to deal with before there.
More news from around the league:
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| This Steve Smith retirement tour is going to be feisty. The receiver stole the show Saturday night, picking up nearly 100 receiving yards in less than a quarter of work, taking a relatively short pass for a 63-yard touchdown, getting caught up in a skirmish that got him ejected along with Washington corner Chris Culliver, and then winning the night on Twitter by watching the rest of the game from a suite with his kids. Not sure he can top that. This might be his version of the old Gordie Howe hat trick in hockey. Fact is, he is far and away the best (only?) option in this Ravens passing attack, and he's going to be fed the ball early and often. Can he hold up at that rate over all 16 weeks? Remains to be seen. He slowed last year some. But he looked fleet and nimble Saturday, and at a time when none of Baltimore's bevy of receivers can either stay healthy or make a play, he's a vital player for the Ravens. Top draft picks Breshad Perriman (I can't see this kid playing in the opener if he's not back this week) and Maxx Williams can't stay on the field and both might face a steep learning curve. Joe Flacco has never had much of a cast around him, but this looks like by far the worst of his lots. If he balls out with this crew, that contract renegotiation this winter gets even more interesting. | |
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| It's not looking promising for the Lions to get anything done with Haloti Ngata before the season starts. Talks have been cordial, and there is some mutual interest, but it's unlikely to come together this summer and might be something that doesn't really take wind until after the season. Ngata has yet to be in uniform for the team this preseason as the Pro Bowl defensive tackle -- assuming a huge role with Detroit's starters departed -- remains on the PUP list with a hamstring injury … The Lions will be shopping promising kicker Kyle Brindza in the coming weeks. Matt Prater is their guy -- though you can add him to the growing list of guys to miss an extra point under the new format -- and Detroit would like to get something for Brindza if they can. The kid went 3-for-3 on field goals, including a 51-yarder on Friday night, and has flashed a big leg on kickoffs as well, regularly driving the ball out of the end zone. He can also punt in a pinch. For a team like the Steelers, who have already suffered quite a bit of injuries on the kicking front, Brindza might make sense. | |
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| I like Bill O'Brien's decision to go ahead and name Brian Hoyer the starter over Ryan Mallett before the third preseason game, by the way. Get it out of the way. Go with the smart, more polished player. Sure, Hoyer doesn't have Mallett's arm, but he's so well-versed in the system and teams tend to rally around him. Mallett certainly had done nothing to try to claim he merited the starting gig (though clearly he somehow seems to think otherwise). One of the crazier stats I've heard recently: Hoyer went 10-6 as the starter of the Cleveland Browns. Think about that for a minute. Let that sink in. By Browns standards that's like a friggin' dynasty. That's downright playoff-worthy, and consider he had virtually nothing around him in terms of skill players once Josh Gordon went off the rails. That's wild. First of all, the Browns have had only one season of at least 10 wins since coming back into the league via expansion in 1999 (back in 2007). They haven't won more than seven games in a season since that 2007 campaign. Taking out that 2007 season, and looking at any consecutive seasons since the Browns came back in the league, you would have to go back to 2002-2003 to find any instance pre-Hoyer in which the franchise won as many as 10 games over a full season period. | |
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| Count me among those buying in on Blake Bortles this year. I don't think he's going to be able to carry that team as it still searches for talent or anything like that, but he's showing a renewed touch and feel for the game and his athleticism remains a vital strength. I expect new coordinator Greg Olson -- who did some pretty special stuff with Josh Freeman not that long ago (looks like a miracle worker in hindsight -- to be a perfect fit and a huge aid to Bortles' development. The Jags had good stuff going on to the tight ends -- albeit against sagging coverage by the Lions -- over the weekend and that only stands to heighten when Julius Thomas returns. There is legit optimism that will be for Week 1. Sure, it's the preseason, but the Jags' first-team offense scored on seven straight drives. If nothing else, the Jags have some rare confidence to take into September. | |
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| The Jets might get some calls on their running backs. It's a deep group. But the Jets plan to run the ball a lot, have an affinity for the guys there, and there will be a role for all of them. I like that group a lot. I've always been a Chris Ivory guy, personally, but I'm not sure a true workhorse emerges from their division of labor at that position. | |
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| If I'm Sam Bradford, I'm pretty worried right now. Even after that perfect outing against the Packers, I'm still a little worried. If, in the regular season, Chip Kelly wants to run anything with that look he gave in Week 2 of the preseason -- a shotgun handoff delivered with both hands in a read-option fashion -- he's going to get this quarterback maimed. After chatting with numerous coaches and personnel men about it this week, I'm more convinced of that than ever. Nick Foles got hurt. Mike Vick got hurt. Sam Bradford -- hardly an escape artist -- is going to suffer another significant injury if Kelly keeps this up. I couldn't find anyone with an unbiased opinion who had any issue with what Terrell Suggs did and how he went after Bradford there. Not a soul. "That's exactly how every team in the league is going to come after his quarterback," one exec told me. "There isn't any reason to do anything else, especially if he wants to keep leaving guys like Suggs unblocked." Given Bradford's extreme injury history this is an accident waiting to happen. And the way the Eagles players reacted to the hit hasn't gone unnoticed, either. Head of officiating Dean Blandino went to lengths to explain the legalities of the hit on his weekly officiating video. If Kelly puts Bradford in space at the "mesh point" for a handoff, he's putting him in the danger zone whatever you want to call the scheme. | |
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| The Steelers feel pretty confident about the ability of star center Maurkice Pouncey to recover from his surgery in the second half of the season. I would be very surprised if he doesn't get the IR-Designated to Return designation with the hope he's back around Week 11. | |
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| What's next for the 49ers? Winning classy, eh? It's going to be more difficult than they must've thought. This Ahmad Brooks' legal situation is beyond troubling, and the team has little choice but to move on should his charges for sexual battery result in any sort of culpability. It's obvious he can't be back there. And as more details emerge, given the plight of this team post-Aldon Smith, I have a hard time thinking Brooks has much of a future there regardless. There is not much wiggle room here, and it would be yet another linebacker gone from a position that was once their lifeblood. Jim Harbaugh will get the last laugh here. He already is. Like a few times a week. Not that there is anything remotely funny about the charges facing Brooks and former-49er Ray McDonald, but there is no denying that the head coach got out at just the right time. | |
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| The Titans are not going to find a taker for that Andy Levitre contract -- which serves as just another cautionary tale as to why NFL free agency so rarely works. He's going to be making damn close to the veteran minimum when he moves on, as well. That $6.5M his contract says he is due to get each of the next three years? That's not happening. That $6.3M cap hit the Titans would take by cutting him? No big thing for a team that's had a ton of space for years as it perpetually rebuilds. | |
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| The football world was quick to destroy the Redskins in Week 2 after the RG3 follies, what a difference a week makes. Washington was mostly stout in a tough spot at Baltimore, and the impact of left tackle Trent Williams returning to the lineup on a night he signed a big contract extension can't be overstated. Everything settled down in front of Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy. "The offensive line was great," coach Jay Gruden said after the game, sounding a slight bit relieved and surprised. It was a big reversal from the debacle against Detroit, and while the run blocking needs some work, a modicum of pass pro goes a long way. The game did nothing to stop the momentum rookie running back Matt Jones is creating, and Cousins certainly further cemented himself as the likely starter if Robert Griffin III isn't good to go from his concussion. | |