Though receiver Davante Adams is finally a member of the New York Jets after the Las Vegas Raiders agreed to trade the unhappy wideout on Tuesday, the SportsLine Projection Model has good news and bad news for Gang Green.
The good news: According to the model, the Jets' chances of winning the Super Bowl doubled by adding Adams, who has 96 career receiving touchdowns, the second most among active players, and reuniting him with Aaron Rodgers, who threw 52 touchdowns to Adams when the two played for the Green Bay Packers from 2017-21, the most by a quarterback-receiver duo over that span.
The bad news: New York's chances of winning the Super Bowl remains just 1.2%. While that number is twice what it was before Tuesday's trade, it still ranks 16th in the NFL, meaning almost half of the league has a better chance to win the Super Bowl than Rodgers, Adams & Co.
Gang Green may want to put a hold off on planning that ticker-tape parade down the Canyon of Heroes.
| NY JETS | WINS | WIN% | WIN DIVISION | MAKE PLAYOFFS | WIN AFC | WIN SUPER BOWL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Trade | 7.8 | 45.9% | 5.6% | 31.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| w/ Adams | 8.2 | 48.2% | 7.6% | 40.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Difference | +0.4 | +2.4% | +2.0% | +8.8% | +1.0% | +0.6% |
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, does not see the trade having much of a positive impact on New York's season. According to the model the Jets, who are 2-4 and in third place in the AFC East, finish with just 8.4 wins with Adams (up from 7.8 without him). With Adams they also have a 7.6% chance of winning the AFC East (up from 5.6%), a 40.1% chance of making the playoffs (up from 31.3%) and a 2.4% chance of winning the AFC Championship Game (up from 1.4%).
Why is the model so low on Adams' new family? Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model, says that the addition of Adams does not fix New York's biggest problem on offense: the offensive line. Over the last three weeks Rodgers has been sacked 11 times, which is tied for the second most in the league over that time, behind only the Browns' Deshaun Watson (15).
Oh used an NBA analogy when describing Adams' reunion with Rodgers on the Jets.
"This could be like if Scottie Pippen reunited with the Jordan Wizards," Oh says.
The trade also had minimal impact on the futures market. On DraftKings, the price on the Jets to make the playoffs (+155) and win the Super Bowl (+3000) did not move at all. The prices to win the AFC East and AFC Championship Game became shorter, but only marginally.
| NY JETS | WIN DIVISION | MAKE PLAYOFFS | WIN AFC | WIN SUPER BOWL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Trade | +700 | +155 | +1500 | +3000 |
| w/ Adams | +650 | +155 | +1300 | +3000 |
Adams has missed the last three games while dealing with a hamstring issue, and the date of his return is uncertain.
As for Week 7, the SportsLine Projection Model is calling for a close game between the Jets and Steelers on Sunday Night Football. However, that game isn't one of the three with A-grade spread picks based on model simulations for Week 7. You can find those top-tier Week 7 NFL picks at SportsLine.