Lions vs. Bills: How Josh Allen handles this part of Detroit DC Aaron Glenn's scheme will determine showdown

The phrase "Super Bowl preview" gets thrown around a lot when two high quality NFL teams face each other in the second half of the regular season.

However, the moniker actually fits this Week 15 showdown in Motown between the 10-3 Buffalo Bills and the 12-1 Detroit Lions. Detroit (+270) and Buffalo (+650) rank first and fourth, respectively, in Super Bowl odds entering Week 15, and they are the likely Super Bowl matchup (11.4%), according to SportsLine projections. It makes sense given the Lions are the No. 1 scoring offense (32.1 points per game) and the Bills are the No. 2 scoring offense (30.5). 

The matchup that will determine the game's outcome

This game will be decided by how brilliantly Bills quarterback Josh Allen plays against Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and his second-ranked scoring defense (18.0 points per game allowed this season), particularly when they blitz. 

How great has Allen been this season? Well, with 23 passing touchdowns and nine rushing touchdowns he is one rushing score away from becoming the first quarterback in NFL history with multiple seasons of 25-plus passing touchdowns and 10-plus rushing touchdowns. Allen last season, Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray in 2020 and then-Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton in his 2015 NFL MVP season are the only prior such seasons all-time, per CBS Sports Research. 

The Lions defense heavily relies on the blitz, possessing the fourth-highest blitz rate, 36.4%, in the NFL overall this season, per NFL Pro, but they have produced the seventh-lowest quarterback pressure rate when blitzing (38%). In order to compensate for the loss of Pro Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who appeared poised to run away with the 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award before a season-ending leg injury in Week 6, Glenn has blitzed 41.1% of the time since Week 7, the highest rate in the entire NFL in that span. However, they are allowing the lowest passer rating in the NFL (67.7) when blitzing in part because of their seven interceptions on such plays, the second-most in the league behind only the Minnesota Vikings, who have 11. Allen's 123.8 passer rating vs. the blitz is the fourth-best in the NFL, and his 14 touchdown passes when blitzed are the best in the league. Why is that? A few reasons actually. 

One is that he is playing a safer brand of football than he ever has before. His average time to throw of 2.85 seconds this season is the ninth-fastest in the league as well as the quickest of his career. Allen is also throwing the ball shorter than he ever has, trusting his checkdown options more frequently with a career-low average pass length of 8.1 yards downfield. That's contributed to Allen's lowest turnover rate, 1.4% of plays, and sack rate, 3.2%, of his career. His offensive line has been solid, allowing the 10th-lowest quarterback pressure rate this season (32.2%) as well as the seventh-lowest in the league when being blitzed at 36.9%. Allen also isn't afraid to throw it to anybody: he's thrown a touchdown to 12 different players, including himself, in 2024. 

Any Lions fan perusing this breakdown may be wondering about their advantageous matchup when their offense has the football. Let's dig into that as well. Detroit's dynamic running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery aka "Sonic and Knuckles"  are the first duo in NFL history with 10 rushing touchdowns each in consecutive seasons, and they wear defenses out. That's why it's worth pointing out the Lions as a team average the eighth-most yards per carry this season (4.6) while the Bills are allowing the seventh-most yards per carry this season (4.7).

However, the issue for the Lions here is that their advantage running the football can be somewhat mitigated by the flow of a game -- if their opponent jumps out in front of them -- while Allen's mastery against the blitz can be put into action with Buffalo ahead or behind. Ninety-nine times out of 100 a quarterback's brilliance will outshine a running back or a group of running backs' production in 2024, and Allen's ability to perform against the Lions blitz will be the difference in a 31-28 Bills road win.