It's April 18, 2017, which means your taxes are due (no, wait, don't stop reading, they'll do themselves, I promise). It also means a year ago, the Eagles and Browns consummated the second of what would be two top-five draft trades for quarterbacks. The Rams and Eagles wouldn't say it at the time, but everyone knew who they were taking in the 2016 NFL Draft.
This is a good reminder that all the draft-day intrigue has yet to fully realize itself (the draft was 10 days away when those trades happened, and the 2017 NFL Draft is just over a week away) and that it's always smart to periodically check back in and see how the teams involved in these blockbuster trades ended up doing.
We knew the compensation involved when the deals occurred, and we had a good idea about how the compensation played out during last year's draft, but heading into this year's draft it's worth another look.
Let's see how the four teams involved fared almost exactly a year later, taking into account the players they drafted last year and the production those players gave them (we'll use Approximate Value, Pro-Football-Reference's catch-all statistic to measure the value of individual players) as well as looking at any future picks.
The price to move up to No. 1 overall last year was not cheap. With the Rams moving to Los Angeles, general manager Les Snead and then-coach Jeff Fisher decided to make a bold play up the board and get a franchise quarterback in California native Jared Goff. They ignored the very history they wrote in doing so, but if you want a quarterback and don't have the top pick, you have to pay a steep price.
At the time, the Rams lost when it came to any trade value chart you looked at -- Tennessee just held them hostage.
We'll get to the selections the Titans received soon, but the Rams got No. 1 overall, No. 113 and No. 177. They would eventually spin the 113th pick into the 117th and 206th overall picks.
We're giving them credit for utilizing that fourth-round pick to nab an extra player, but if you want to limit it to three that's fine too.
Players they got:
Player | Position | Round | Overall Pick | Approx. Value |
Jared Goff | QB | 1 | 1st | -2 |
| Pharoah Cooper | WR | 4 | 117th | 1 |
Temarrick Hemingway | TE | 4 | 177th | 0 |
Mike Thomas | WR | 7 | 206th | 0 |
Not great, Bob. It's not entirely fair to judge the Rams' draft yet, though, because we need to see how Goff looks when he's given some protection (the Rams did a good job in bringing in Andrew Whitworth this offseason), some weapons (they added Robert Woods to Tavon Austin so that's something?) and a full season of snaps in new head coach Sean McVay's offense. Firing Fisher was a good move long term to help out Goff's development. The Rams didn't even use him for the first half of last season.
The haul looks bad now but if Goff becomes a franchise quarterback then the Rams made a smart decision. Snead is still very much willing to defend the trade. It's too early to tell. There will be plenty of scrutiny on the Rams this season however.
Everyone eventually lost in the RG3 trade. Hopefully that won't be the case here.
It's hard to imagine the Titans losing in the deal, too. Again, if Goff is a franchise quarterback, it's a good move for the Rams, but the Titans absolutely fleeced them in terms of the picks exchanged.
Tennessee got No. 15, No. 43, No. 45 and No. 76 overall as well as the Rams' first pick in 2017, which ended up being No. 5 overall. They gave up last year's No. 1 overall for three top-50 picks/four top-100 picks. Heck of a job by Jon Robinson -- if he hits on the pick (and his other first-round pick in this draft) the Titans could be morphing into a contender in front of our eyes.
Player | Position | Round | Overall | Approx. Value |
Jack Conklin | OL | 1st | 6th | 15 |
Austin Johnson | DT | 2nd | 43rd | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 2nd | 45th | 4 |
TBD (2017) | TBD | 1st | 5th | N/A |
The Titans actually traded in reverse, utilizing No. 76 overall (which they received from the Rams), coupled with No. 15 overall (from the Rams) to move up to No. 6 overall, where they drafted Jack Conklin, who turned out to be a jackpot as a top-10 pick.
Conklin was part of a dominant, quickly rebuilt offensive line that set the stage for Mike Mularkey's "exotic smashmouth" offense, which at times also featured second-round pick Derrick Henry, who is the heir apparent to DeMarco Murray and some very nice insurance should something happen to Murray. At times last season Henry looked like he might already be the better running back.
Tennessee can either grab a stud offensive play-maker (O.J. Howard?) at No. 5 this year or go defense early and look to grab a wide receiver (Mike Williams or John Ross) with their second first-round pick. They are in fantastic position and absolutely made the right call in doing this deal with the Rams and in utilizing their resources to acquire talent.
The Eagles are a perfect reminder that it's almost always too early to judge a trade -- the Eagles looked to be in a weird spot when they were facing a draft in Philadelphia without a first-round pick while holding onto a bunch of quarterbacks. Then Teddy Bridgewater went down and the Vikings sent a first-round pick to the Eagles for Sam Bradford. Throw in Carson Wentz clearly looking like a future franchise quarterback during his rookie season and this trade looks like a winner for the Eagles, even though they gave up a lot of picks to receive the No. 2 overall pick and a 2017 fourth-round pick.
Let's see who they got.
Player | Position | Round | Overall | Approx. Value |
Carson Wentz | QB | 1 | 2nd | 10 |
TBD (2017) | TBD | 4 | 139th | N/A |
Again, Wentz was surprisingly good despite being thrown into action when most expected him to be redshirted in 2016. Regardless of what it cost Philadelphia, the Eagles appear to have acquired a franchise quarterback. That is almost priceless in today's NFL. That Howie Roseman netted this year's 14th overall pick from Minnesota for Bradford while giving up the 12th overall pick in the Wentz trade adds a little gravy to the situation.
Wentz does have to become a franchise quarterback -- and plenty of guys have gone on to fail after good starts to their career -- for this to look like a good deal, but right now the Eagles have to feel good about how they handled the situation.
The Browns also got a good deal in this trade, because of the picks they acquired. But at some point, the fans will require a quarterback, and seeing Wentz succeed (especially in a season-opening victory over the Browns in Week 1 of 2016) when he was sitting there will be tough to stomach. But they netted some great value in the deal, although not quite the haul that the Titans got from Los Angeles.
The Browns got the No. 8 pick (dealt later to the Titans), the No. 77 pick (which they traded), the No. 100 pick (which they also traded), a 2017 first-round pick and a 2018 second-round pick. It's a minor miracle they haven't dealt the last two already. They almost certainly will.
Player | Position | Round | Overall | Approx. Value |
Corey Coleman | WR | 1 | 15th | 3 |
| Shon Coleman | OT | 3 | 76th | 0 |
Cody Kessler | QB | 3 | 93rd | 3 |
Derrick Kindred | S | 4 | 129th | 2 |
Ricardo Louis | WR | 4 | 114th | 1 |
Jordan Payton | WR | 5 | 154th | 0 |
Spencer Drango | OL | 5 | 168th | 4 |
| TBD (2017) | TBD | 1 | 12th | N/A |
| TBD (2018) | TBD | 2 | TBD | N/A |
Bear in mind that when we look at these picks, it's not always an even trade. They also gave the 141st pick to Carolina in order to move up, but that was the only other pick Cleveland sacrificed in these deals. Otherwise the Browns were just trading down, which has been the m.o. of this particular front office.
And let's not sugarcoat this for Cleveland: It doesn't look great right now. The Browns might have done the smart thing by trading down to acquire more picks. But all the picks in the world are meaningless if the evaluation isn't accurate.
That's not to say these players won't or can't be good. Corey Coleman flashed a lot. Can Drango play right tackle? That's the last piece of the puzzle for a potentially dominant offensive line. Expecting the first-year development of these guys to tell us everything about them is a mistake.
But Cleveland has been desperate for a quarterback for a long time and might have passed on a guy in Wentz that could be a franchise quarterback in order to add some nice complementary pieces.
The value of this deal could very well end up swinging on what Cleveland can accomplish with the No. 12 overall pick in this year's draft. No pressure.