There are few NFL franchises in a sadder state of affairs than the two that reside in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The New York Jets are 3-8 and one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL. The New York Giants are 2-8 and have benched their starting quarterback.
The Jets have already fired both their head coach and their general manager, and taken play-calling duties away from their offensive coordinator. It would, frankly, be pretty shocking if the Giants did not part ways with their own coaching staff and front office at the end of the season.
Because they'll likely be under new leadership by this coming offseason, it feels appropriate to try to figure out which of these two teams is actually in a better situation going forward. Neither one of them is in a good place, mind you, but the task of rebuilding one is likely more difficult than the other.
The roster
The Jets and Giants each have a few of what I'd describe as "blue-chip" building-blocks -- elite players either in the prime of their career or with their prime still ahead of them -- under contract for the foreseeable future. They are:
- Jets: Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Quinnen Williams, Quincy Williams, Sauce Gardner, Michael Carter II
- Giants: Malik Nabers, Andrew Thomas, Dexter Lawrence
Then there are the guys who are either high-level veteran contributors who are past their prime, or young players who are not quite (or not yet) stars but should be very reliable as either starters or rotational pieces:
- Jets: Davante Adams, Braelon Allen, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Will McDonald IV, Micheal Clemons, Jamien Sherwood
- Giants: Wan'Dale Robinson, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Bobby Okereke, Deonte Banks, Andru Phillips
And they each have a few high-level players (or players they rely on as quality starters) headed for free agency:
- Jets: Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, Haason Reddick, D.J. Reed
- Giants: Darius Slayton, Isaiah Simmons, Azeez Ojulari, Jason Pinnock
You'll notice that neither team's quarterback is listed.
Aaron Rodgers looks like a shell of himself at age-40 and coming off an Achilles tear. Relying on him as a starter beyond this season would be silly. It also seems extremely unlikely given the changes that are about to be made in the organization. All the Jets have behind him is Tyrod Taylor, who is a solid backup but not a future plan.
The Giants just benched Daniel Jones, and he will be cut this offseason to save money. They're turning to Tommy DeVito under center instead of Drew Lock, which gives you an idea of how they think their offseason signing of Lock worked out. There is no answer at the game's most important position here, either.
Advantage: (Slightly) Jets
The salary Cap
The Jets are in a pretty significantly worse cap situation than are the Giants. According to Over the Cap, the Giants are set to enter the offseason with $42.3 million in cap room and the Jets are set to have $33.9 million. On the surface, that's not too different. But the Giants just have much more flexibility.
By releasing Jones outright, the Giants can add $19.4 million in cap room. By designating him a post-June 1 release, they can bump that up to $30.5 million. They have several large contracts that can be restructured, like those for Thomas, Burns, Lawrence and Okereke, to create a significant amount of additional space. They can save money by moving on from players like Jermaine Eluemunor, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Graham Gano and Jon Runyan, if they want. Their most notable free agents are not necessarily key pieces.
Unless they're going to truly tear everything down to the bone, things are more complicated for the Jets. Cutting Rodgers outright would result in $25.5 million being added to their books. Designating him a post-June 1 release saves just $9.5 million. They can part ways with Adams (even though they just traded a third-round pick for him) and that would save a significant amount of money, but would also seriously diminish their skill-position corps. (They can do the same with Allen Lazard, to significantly less on-field disadvantage.) The only big restructure they can do is with Quinnen Williams. And they likely will want to retain Reed, who could cost quite a big if he hits the market.
Advantage: Giants
The draft
The Jets are set to send their third-round pick to the Raiders, receive a third-round pick from the Lions, swap fifth-round picks with the Steelers, receive a sixth-round pick from the Chiefs in exchange for their seventh (which is now headed to Arizona) and send a sixth to the Lions. In 2026, their third-round pick will go to the Eagles, they'll receive sixths from the Bills and Broncos and their seventh will go to the Lions. They're not projected for any compensatory picks this year. Netted out, they're down a third- and seventh-round pick and up two sixth-round selections.
The Giants will send either their fifth-round pick or the Seahawks' fifth-round pick to the Panthers and their sixth- or seventh-round pick to the Bills, and in 2025 they will get either a sixth or a seventh from the Cowboys. They're also projected to receive one fourth-round compensatory pick this year.
Advantage: Giants
The division/conference
Both the AFC East and NFC East are kind of bad. It's hard to say which division will be tougher over the next few years.
In the AFC East, Josh Allen looks like he's going to continue dominating for years to come. The Patriots look like they hit a home run with Drake Maye. The Dolphins always look good when Tua Tagovailoa is under center, but they also look like an epic disaster when he's not. In the NFC East, all three opposing teams have good quarterbacks (Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels), but the Cowboys are a tire fire, the Eagles are inconsistent and Washington still has holes elsewhere on the roster. There's less of a clear-cut dominant team in the Giants' division, but it might be more difficult on a year-to-year basis because any of the other three can pop up with a strong season.
The top of the AFC looks considerably stronger than the top of the NFC for the foreseeable future (except for maybe the Lions, who are an absolute machine), but there's more middle-of-the-pack depth in the NFC, which could make competing for wild-card spots a bit stickier.
Advantage: Even
The verdict
It's probably a bit of a cop out to say this, but the ultimate difference here is going to come down to a) which team hires the better front office and coaching staff; and especially b) which team hits on its quarterback in the upcoming draft or the trade market. Those are the things that most determine success in the NFL, and if you land on the right pieces, you can overcome almost any other disadvantage you might have.