NFC North playoff picture, scenarios, odds: Packers out front, but Bears and Lions lurking in tight race
Deep dive into the NFC North's razor-thin playoff race ahead of Week 15
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5 min read
The 2025 NFL season is one of the most competitive years the football world has seen in recent years. This season is the only one in the last 15 in which no team has a division lead of two games or more in Week 15 or later, per CBS Sports Research. Basically, anything can happen in almost every NFL divisional race from here, the start of Week 15, through the final four weeks of the regular season.
One of the tightest division races is the NFC North, where three teams are still very much alive in the hunt for the crown. The Green Bay Packers currently sit atop the heap at 9-3-1, but the Chicago Bears (9-4) and the Detroit Lions (8-5) are right behind them. Given the clustered nature of one of the league's premier divisions, we'll zoom in on how things can twist and turn down the stretch run of the 2025 season.
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Pete Prisco
Let's run through the standings, tiebreakers, odds, remaining schedules and wild card picture with these three squads all within reach of a playoff spot with four weeks to go. It's worth noting this division sent the Lions, Packers and Minnesota Vikings to the postseason a year ago, so there's certainly a chance three NFC North teams could be a part of the playoffs again next month.
NFC North standings, tiebreakers and odds projections
| Record | Tiebreaker 1: Head-to-head | Tiebreaker 2: Division W-L | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Packers | 9-3-1 | 1-0 vs CHI ; 2-0 vs DET | 4-0 |
| 2. Bears | 9-4 | 0-1 vs GB; 0-1 vs DET | 1-3 |
| 3. Lions | 8-5 | 0-2 vs GB; 1-0 vs CHI | 1-3 |
The Packers hold the top spot at the moment because they're undefeated in the NFC North. Green Bay swept the Lions with a wire-to-wire 27-13 victory in Week 1 at Lambeau Field and a 31-24 nail-biter of a win on Thanksgiving. The Packers won at home against both the Vikings (23-6 in Week 12) and the Bears (28-21 in Week 14) in their only matchups against each team thus far this season.
If Green Bay remains in the hunt atop the division, there's no way the Bears or Lions could end up tied with them unless they also end up with a rare tie in the next four weeks. Should the Bears and Lions end up tied for the division lead, the first tiebreaker would be head-to-head, which Detroit currently owns with a 52-21 Week 2 home win. If Chicago were to win the Week 18 matchup to force a tie atop the division standings in the event the Packers fall behind, the divisional record would be the next tiebreaker. If those figures are also equivalent, the third tiebreaker of record against common opponents would come into play.
On DraftKings, the Packers are -250 to win the division for the first time since 2021, while the Bears are +310 and the Lions are +800.
At the moment, CBS' Sportsline model gives the Packers a 65.1% chance to win the NFC North, while the Bears have a 24.7% chance and the Lions have a 10.3% chance.
Remaining schedule for Packers, Bears and Lions
| Game | Packers | Bears | Lions |
|---|---|---|---|
Week 15 | at Broncos (11-2) | Browns (3-10) | at Rams (10-3) |
Week 16 | at Bears (9-4) | Packers (9-3-1) | Steelers (7-6) |
Week 17 | vs Ravens (6-7) | at 49ers (9-4) | at Vikings (5-8) |
Week 18 | at Vikings (5-8) | Lions (8-5) | at Bears (9-4) |
All Green Bay has to secure the NFC North crown is no fewer than the same number of games the Bears win. If the Packers achieve that feat, they'll remain ahead by half a game and duck all tiebreaker scenarios. Even if the two teams did finish with the same record, the Packers would take the division with the division record tiebreaker since they already have four NFC North wins, while the max the Chicago could get up to is three.
Chicago needs to win just one more game than Green Bay. To overtake their hated rivals, a win in the Week 16 rematch is a must. Beating the three-win Browns at Soldier Field shouldn't be a heavy lift, but having their final two games against fellow NFC wild card contenders like the San Francisco 49ers and the Lions doesn't make for an easy road ahead.
Detroit needs to win out, which would include beating the Bears to clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker over Chicago, and they need Green Bay to go no better than .500 (2-2) down the stretch. That would put the Lions a half game ahead of the Packers at 12-5, while Green Bay would be at 11-5-1 in that scenario.
All three teams have similarly difficult strength of schedules down the stretch. The Packers and Lions are tied for the seventh-toughest remaining strength of schedule at .596, with the Bears right behind them at .567, the ninth-hardest remaining slate. The action across the final four weeks of the season will truly prove the mettle of the division just in time for the postseason.
Can any NFC North team earn a wild card spot?
| NFC wild card standings | W-L |
|---|---|
5. Seahawks | 10-3 |
6. 49ers | 9-4 |
7. Bears | 9-4 |
8. Lions | 8-5 |
9. Panthers | 7-6 |
10. Cowboys | 6-6-1 |
11. Vikings | 5-8 |
There is certainly a world where the Packers, Lions and Bears could make the postseason with the second and third-place finishers occupying the final two wild card spots behind the runner-up in the NFC West between the currently 10-3 Los Rams and Seahawks. With the Lions playing at the Rams in Week 15 and the Bears traveling to San Francisco to face the 49ers in Week 17, a path to the postseason is very much at the fingertips of both Detroit and Chicago.
The Packers are the NFC North favorite at 65.1% but they also hold a near-inevitable 93.7% chance to make the postseason as either the division winner or a wild card, according to SportsLine. The Bears have a 70% shot to reach the playoffs despite their division numbers sitting at just 24.7%, which means they are a favorite to earn one of the NFC's three wild card bids. The Lions have just above a coin flip's chance, 52%, to return to the postseason, according to SportsLine.
