Welcome back to NFL Thursday Thoughts. This is the third installation of this offseason series, and the focus here is a wide-ranging one: How will quarterbacks coming off of season-ending injuries fare?
This group covers a wide swath of the quarterback spectrum: young, old, Super Bowl contenders, players playing for their job, players with new teams and players who have been franchise cornerstones for a while. Each player will shape not only what the 2024 season looks like, but what the future holds as well.
We'll start with a player who entered last season as arguably the top storyline in the entire league and, even nearly a year of essentially not playing, he remains just that.
Injury: Torn Achilles, Week 1
A 40-year-old quarterback/world traveler coming off one of the most devastating injuries a football player can have, a coach with an 18-33 record and an offensive coordinator whose offense has ranked 32nd and 29th in points the last two seasons walk into a bar.
Just kidding. They walk into the Jets facility every day. There is no team needing to win more this season than the Jets, and there is no quarterback more relied upon to do so than Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers' debut season with the Jets ended in stunning fashion, the four-time MVP lasting just three plays before tearing his left Achilles. The Jets, with nary a backup plan, succumbed to a 7-10 record and missed the playoffs for the 13th consecutive season, the longest active streak in the league.
Since Rodgers' devastating injury, he has teased a same-season comeback, said the team needs to eliminate distractions, created a distraction by skipping mandatory minicamp to go to Egypt and said the Jets are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Rodgers has always had an eccentricity about him. This time, he's pushing the limits.
Rodgers did get one thing right though when he mentioned the no distractions back in January. He said, "We're all on the hot seat." And he, head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett most certainly are.
The Jets upgraded Rodgers' supporting cast this offseason. They added Tyron Smith to protect Rodgers' blindside and drafted Olu Fashanu to give the line credible, high-ceiling depth. They added Mike Williams, the uber-talented, oft-injured wide receiver who is a contested catch monster, and drafted Malachi Corley to bring some elusiveness to the slot. They even signed Tyrod Taylor in case *gasp* Rodgers gets hurt and a capable backup is needed, whether for a few quarters, a few weeks or a few months.
Rodgers' back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021 came when he was pressured at the lowest rates of his career, and, not coincidentally, in the years he threw the quickest. In 2020, he had a career-best 3.7% sack rate. As such, it's imperative Hackett and Rodgers can get their quick passing game going. Since 2020, Rodgers has posted 0.33 expected points added per dropback on throws released in 2.25-3 seconds (T-1st in NFL). When it goes over three seconds, his expected points added per dropback plummets to -0.07. He's always been a big of an improviser, but at his age and given his injury history, keeping him on rhythm will be important.
We'll also want to see Rodgers in more play-action settings. His 0.25 expected points added per dropback on those throws is 3rd in the NFL since 2020. Rodgers has always been one of the game's best passers on the move, and getting him moving early eliminates crowded pockets, the exact thing that caused Rodgers' injury.
But these things -- the quick throws, the play-action game, the chemistry with teammates -- take time. The clock was already ticking against Rodgers as a 40-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles tear who hasn't played a down of football in nearly a full year. His missing minicamp sped that clock up even a bit more. Training camp looms large.
Injury: Torn Achilles, Week 8
Cousins suffered the same injury as Rodgers, and at 35 (soon to be 36), he's no spry chicken either. However, Cousins has been an active participant this offseason, and I wrote about why his fit with the Falcons is a strong one. Cousins is leaving Kevin O'Connell's system for a very similar one in Zac Robinson's. Both are former Sean McVay assistants with heavy play-action influences, which aligns well with Cousins' strong intermediate passing. Bijan Robinson plus a strong offensive line should accentuate Atlanta's play-action strengths.
Cousins also joins the physically gifted Kyle Pitts, who should be a major benefactor while providing Cousins with a very popular play-action target.
Kirk Cousins Targeting TE Since 2015 | NFL Rank | |
Pass attempts | 1,030 | 1st |
Pass yds | 7,728 | 4th |
Pass TD | 59 | 4th |
Expected points added per dropback | 0.24 | 14th (out of 47) |
Injury: Torn wrist ligaments, Week 11
Burrow was never quite right in 2023. He had a calf injury that limited his mobility, and the Bengals resorted to a shorter, quicker passing game that never melded. Burrow averaged his fewest air yards per attempt (6.4) and fastest time to throw (2.49 seconds), but he was more inaccurate (9.6% off-target rate) than ever before. It's hard to judge Burrow's 2023, as his disrupted preseason carried over to the regular season.
We can, however, look at what worked in Burrow's two healthy seasons: a steady diet of short passes and a higher amount of deep passes. In 2022 and 2023, Burrow threw 38.4% of his passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, and 9.6% of his passes 21+ yards downfield, 22nd among 35 qualifying quarterbacks. Last year, 28.6% of Burrow's throws were within five yards of the line of scrimmage, and just 7.4% of his passes went 21+ yards downfield. Essentially, Burrow's short throws -- where he is extremely accurate and gives Ja'Marr Chase and others room to run after the catch -- were way, way down. So were his long throws, where Chase and Tee Higgins can really open up a defense.
Again, a fully healthy Burrow will help immensely. Last year, Burrow took nearly 92% of his snaps from shotgun, second-highest in the NFL, perhaps because going under center and backpedaling was troublesome for his calf. In 2021-22, Burrow took 71% of snaps from shotgun, a much more normal number. With Burrow under center, Cincinnati can present a lot more variety pre-snap and help get their franchise quarterback back on track.
Injury: AC joint sprain, Week 5
Richardson played four games in 2023 and left two of them early. His season-ending shoulder surgery was a big disappointment, but he showed promising glimpses under Shane Steichen, who clearly knew how to use his historically athletic quarterback. Richardson led the NFL in expected points added per dropback on run/pass option (RPO) plays, and it wasn't particularly close.
Steichen played to Richardson's strengths: Richardson was in shotgun on 96% of his snaps, the highest rate in the league. Second in that category was another similarly mobile quarterback -- and Steichen's former quarterback in Philadelphia -- Jalen Hurts. Richardson also eschewed short throws for bigger ones; he ranked fourth in percent of throws at least 10 yards downfield. He's a big-game hunter with a big-game arm. The physical tools shined.
Given the small sample size, the questions we had regarding Richardson coming out of college are still there, too. Over 14% of his passes were considered off target. That would have been the second-highest rate in the league, only ahead of Bryce Young. Even on RPO plays, the accuracy was an issue. Richardson also posted a relatively high negative play rate. Making the easy throws and easy plays will be paramount in his second season to keep the Colts on track.
Injury: Fractured shoulder, Week 10
If assessing Richardson is hard, assessing Watson is nearly impossible. He has played 12 games since the end of the 2020 season and has looked absolutely nothing like the quarterback he was prior to that. In 2020, Watson led the NFL in yards per attempt and yards per completion. From 2022-23, out of 40 quarterbacks, Watson ranked 33rd in yards per attempt and yards per completion. He also ranked 37th in completion percentage and 34th in off-target percentage.
Watson was also second in average time to throw and percentage of throws that take more than three seconds, only behind Justin Fields. As such, his sack rate rose to 9.8%, ranking 35th.
It's almost as if Watson has the yips. Last year, nearly 10% of his passes 0-5 yards downfield were off target, by far the worst rate in the league. In fact, since 2017, there have been 180 passer rating-qualified seasons. That off-target rate would have ranked 177th. When even the most basic plays become struggles, it's a big issue.
So, what's a reasonable better-case outcome for Watson? Health is the most important first and foremost. Perhaps they can get Watson in shotgun more and under center less, even though that goes against Kevin Stefanski's tendencies. The Browns, frankly, have to pull out all the stops at this point.
Injury: Torn ACL, Week 9
In some ways, the 2022 season was the best and the worst thing to happen to the Giants and, in turn, to Jones. The good was Brian Daboll looked like a genius for rescuing Jones' career, the team made the playoffs (and won a game once there), and Jones cashed out. The bad was it created unreal expectations for what the team really was. The Giants were 23rd in DVOA, a metric that takes into account opponent strength. Only two teams 18th or worse in DVOA that season posted winning records: the Giants and the team they beat in the playoffs, the Vikings.
Was it a complete farce? No. You can only play (and beat) the team across from you, and the Giants scratched out a 9-7-1 record. But when it comes to Jones specifically, a watered-down offense masked his limitations. In 2022 ...
- Jones had the league's fourth-highest play-action rate, second-lowest air yards per attempt and lowest explosive play per dropback rate. He stopped turning the ball over -- his biggest weakness -- because he almost never had to make dangerous throws. Even with the perceived improvements, Jones ranked just 24th in yards per attempt.
- When not using play action, Jones showed the same concerning signs. He was sacked on 8.5% of his dropbacks (25th in NFL) and had the league's fourth-lowest explosive play rate.
When asked to keep the offense on track from a passer-friendly situations, Jones did a solid job. But in 2023, that ended. Behind another porous line, Jones was constantly under pressure, and after being one of the most effective running quarterbacks in 2022, he was one of the least effective in 2023. Teams restricted the field and dared Jones to beat them over the top. He didn't -- or couldn't -- with an underwhelming supporting cast.
There is a happy medium here. If healthy, Jones is a good athlete who can be effective in the play-action game, but hopefully with an improved offensive line and the addition of Malik Nabers, he can seek bigger plays from straight dropbacks as well. It's very much a prove-it year for Jones, and if he doesn't prove it, New York will be at or near the front of the line for a new quarterback in 2025.
More Thursday Thoughts:
Part 1: Can Caleb Williams and the Bears deliver on high expectations?
Part 2: Is this the Cowboys' last run as we know them?
