NFL Christmas grades, plus playoff-clinching scenarios and Seahawks-Bears picks for 'Thursday Night Football'

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

This isn't just any Thursday though: It's the FINAL Thursday of 2024. To celebrate that fact, we're going to list 2,024 reasons why you should watch the Thursday night game between the Bears and Seahawks. Just kidding. I don't have time to write that, you don't have time to read that, and I'm pretty sure I couldn't come up with 2,024 reasons to watch a game involving the Bears. 

That being said, we will have a preview of the game in today's newsletter, plus we'll be breaking down everything that happened on Christmas Day in the NFL. 

As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the grocery store. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.

1. Christmas grades: Steelers and Texans both get coal in their stocking

Although Santa delivered on Christmas, it's safe to say these games didn't. Both games ended up being blowouts. Let's take a look at how each team graded out: 

Chiefs 29-10 over Steelers

• Chiefs takeaway: The Chiefs always seem to get hot just in time for the playoffs, and that appears to be exactly what's happening this year. Patrick Mahomes, who has a 4-0 career record against Pittsburgh, once again dominated the Steelers. The Chiefs QB diced up Pittsburgh's secondary for 320 yards and three touchdowns, and he did that by spreading the ball around: The Chiefs had seven different players catch at least two passes, including Travis Kelce, who caught eight passes for 84 yards and a TD. As good as the offense was, the defense might have been better. The Chiefs didn't have star pass rusher Chris Jones, but they were still able to terrorize Russell Wilson. The Kansas City pass rush racked up five sacks with Mike Danna recording two of those. Santa always delivers on Dec. 25, and the Chiefs always deliver in big games. Both of them delivered in this rare Wednesday game. Grade: A+
• Steelers takeaway: The Steelers are probably going to get coal in their stocking after this Christmas Day performance. With George Pickens back in the lineup, the offense did show some brief signs of life, but overall it was an ugly day. The ugliness started up front with the offensive line getting dominated for five sacks. As if that wasn't bad enough, the Steelers also made two back-breaking mistakes with a red zone interception by Russell Wilson in the first half and a lost fumble by Pat Freiermuth in the second half. It also didn't help that the Steelers defense looked lost while trying to slow down Kansas City's offense. This team feels like it's fading fast, and with three straight losses, it will be a surprise if it gets out of the first round of the playoffs with the way it is currently playing. Grade: D-

Andy Reid celebrated the win by dressing up like Santa and you can check out his costume here. 

You can check out our full takeaways from Kansas City's win here.

Ravens 31-2 over Texans 

• Ravens takeaway: Santa wasn't the only one who delivered on Christmas; so did Lamar Jackson. The Ravens QB made an MVP statement with an impressive performance that saw him total 255 yards and three touchdowns. Of that total, Jackson rushed for 87 yards, which moved him past Michael Vick for the most career rushing yards by a QB in NFL history. Jackson did get some help on offense from Derrick Henry, who plowed his way through the Texans defense for 147 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens defense, which had been a weak spot for the first 11 weeks of the season, had another strong game. It beat up on C.J. Stroud, who was sacked five times. The Ravens are getting hot at the right time, and they're now just one win away from winning the AFC North. Grade: A+
• Texans takeaway: The only thing that could have been uglier on Christmas than the Texans' performance was if Santa's sleigh had crashed. This game was a total disaster for a Texans team that has now struggled on offense in three straight games. C.J. Stroud couldn't get the passing game going, and that's mostly because he was under constant pressure. Even if the offense had been able to move the ball, it might not have mattered because Houston's defense couldn't stop a Ravens rushing attack that piled up more than 250 yards. The Texans are looking like a team that could go one-and-done in the playoffs unless they can somehow get things turned around before the postseason starts. Grade: F

We also have plenty other takeaways from Baltimore's win, and you can check those out there. 

2. NFL Christmas overreactions: Steelers should let Russell Wilson leave after the season

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened during yesterday's games to decide if we're all overreacting. 

Statement: Russell Wilson should NOT return as the Steelers QB next season. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "The Steelers played three games in 11 days, all against teams with 10-plus wins. The offensive numbers weren't good, and neither was Wilson. Pittsburgh averages just 280.7 yards per game and 13.0 offensive points per game over the past three, all with Wilson at quarterback. ... Is Wilson good enough to start? Yes, but the Steelers need an upgrade at quarterback if they are going to compete for a Super Bowl. Pittsburgh is not a Super Bowl contender with Wilson based on how the last three weeks have played out."

Statement: Chiefs are getting back to the Super Bowl. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "The road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Kansas City. The Chiefs clinched home-field advantage after their victory over the Steelers, which means AFC teams will have to beat a 15-1 team in Arrowhead Stadium -- a place where the Chiefs haven't lost this season. ... Buffalo has beaten Kansas City this year. Baltimore has challenged them. But the Chiefs are the favorites to get to Super Bowl LIX. Until a team beats them at Arrowhead Stadium, it's a fair assumption to say the Chiefs are coming out of the AFC."

Statement: Lamar Jackson will hit 10,000 career rushing yards. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "Jackson has already passed Michael Vick for the most rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL history, having 6,110 rushing yards in his career. At just 27 years old (turns 28 in January), Jackson has played seven seasons in the league and averages 872 rushing yards a season. With this pace, Jackson would need five more seasons to reach the mark -- by his age-32 season. With how prolific Jackson is at throwing the ball, he'll remain a dual-threat quarterback even as his speed starts to diminish. Being 32 isn't a deterrent for Jackson, either, as the two-time MVP will still be in the prime of his career. He'll be within striking distance for 10,000 rushing yards in his career, and is already looking like a quarterback who can start until he's 35."

There are plenty more overreactions from the two Christmas games, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here. 

We also came up with some winners and losers from the Christmas games and you can check those out here. 

3. Christmas gets crazy: 10 wild stats from the NFL's holiday doubleheader

For the first time since 1936, the NFL held a Wednesday doubleheader and although both games ended up being blowouts, there was still plenty of history made. 

Let's check out 10 wild stats from yesterday's games (via CBS Sports research):  

1. Lamar Jackson makes NFL history. The Ravens quarterback rushed for 87 yards against the Texans and now has 6,110 for his career, which moves him 1 YARD past Michael Vick for the NFL's all-time record for most rushing yards by a quarterback. The impressive part is that it took Vick 143 games to set the record, but it took Jackson just 102 games to break it. 
2. Jackson is unbeatable late in the season. The Ravens quarterback has NEVER lost a regular-season game at any point from Week 15 on in his career. The game against the Texans was the 13th game that Jackson has played in that situation and he's now 13-0, so you probably don't want to pick against him next week when the Ravens play the Browns. His 13-0 record is the best mark by any QB since at least 1950. 
3. Dynamic Duo. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry combined for 234 yards on Wednesday to give them a combined 2,735 yards on the season, which is a new NFL record for two teammates. Henry and Jackson had already set the record for a QB-RB duo, but now they've got the record for any duo. The previous record was held by Buffalo's O.J. Simpson and Jim Braxton, who rushed for 2,640 yards in 1975. One note here is that Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts rank fourth on the all-time list with 2,468 and they'll get a chance to add to that total on Sunday against the Cowboys. No matter what happens, the Bills' record still might be the most impressive, though, and that's because they hit their number in just 14 games. 
4. Texans pull off unfortunate rarity. The Texans were held to just two points, which is something you don't see very often in the NFL. As a matter of fact, it marks only the second time over the past 30 years that a team has finished with two points in a regular-season game. The last time it happened came in 2013 when the Chiefs beat the Jaguars in 2013. There's also been one playoff game in that span where a team finished with two points and that came in January 2012 when the Giants beat the Falcons, 24-2. 
5. Henry rumbles to Ravens franchise record. With one rushing touchdown on Wednesday, Derrick Henry now has 16 on the season, which sets a new franchise record. Going into Week 17, Henry had been tied with Ray Rice (2011) and Mark Ingram (2019) who both scored 15 in a single season for Baltimore. 
6. Chiefs join exclusive club. With their win over the Steelers, the Chiefs are now 15-1, which makes them just the eighth team in NFL history to win 15 games in a season and the first team to do it since the 15-1 Panthers in 2015. If the Chiefs win in Week 18, they'll match the 2007 Patriots for the most victories in a single season. The Chiefs are also just the second defending Super Bowl champion to hit the 15-win mark, joining the 2011 Packers. Kansas City has set the franchise record for wins in a season. 
7. Travis Kelce sets franchise record. With one receiving touchdown against the Steelers, Kelce now has 77 for his career, which is a new franchise record for the Chiefs. Kelce had been tied with Tony Gonzalez, who caught 76 TD passes in 12 seasons with Kansas City (1997-2008). Kelce also hit 1,000 catches for his career, becoming just the third tight end in NFL history to reach that mark. Kelce is at 1,004 and trails only Gonzalez (1,325) and Jason Witten (1,228) for the most receptions by a tight end. 
8. Chiefs set bizarre record. The Chiefs became the first team in 97 years to play on six different days of the week and with their win, they became the first team in NFL history to win on six different days of the week (No other team had even one on five different days of the week before). The Chiefs didn't play on any Tuesdays this year, which was the only day of the week where they didn't pick up a win. 
9. Chiefs clinch the top seed in the AFC. With their win, the Chiefs have now clinched the top seed in the AFC, but based on their history, that might not actually be a good thing. This marks the sixth time they've been the No. 1 seed in the AFC and in the previous five instances, they've only won the Super Bowl one time. They've been the top seed three prior times in the Patrick Mahomes era (2018, 2020, 2022) and 2022 was the only time they won the Super Bowl. 
10. Steelers' historic collapse. Going into Week 15, the Steelers were 10-3, but now they're now 10-6 after losing three games in a row. The Steelers became just the third team in NFL history to lose three straight games by 14 points or more during a streak that started when the team was at least seven games over .500. They joined the 1986 Jets and the 1987 Chargers. 

If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. 

4. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Seahawks at Bears

The final Thursday night game of the season will be going down in Chicago where the Bears will play host to the Seahawks. Although Chicago (4-11) won't have anything to play for tonight, this is a big game for the Seahawks (8-7). If Seattle wins, that will give the Seahawks a shot to play for the NFC West title in Week 18 (There is one scenario where the Rams could clinch the division this week even with a Seahawks win, but it would involve four different teams winning to give Los Angeles the strength of victory tiebreaker). 

With that in mind, here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident about a possible win:

• Why the Seahawks can win: If you can throw the ball on the Bears, you can beat them, and not many teams have been better at throwing the ball this season than Seattle. The Seahawks are averaging 244.5 passing yards per game, which is the fourth-best number in the NFL. If Geno Smith can avoid turning the ball over, he should be able to take advantage of the Bears defense. The Bears are 0-8 this season when they surrender more than 210 yards passing, but 4-3 when they hold their opponent to 210 or fewer yards, so if Smith gets hot, the Seahawks should come out on top. That being said, it's supposed to be cold and possibly wet, so there's no guarantee that the Seahawks will be able to easily move the ball through the air. 
• Why the Bears can win: The magic number for the Bears this season has been 21: They're 0-10 this season when they score under 21 points, but 4-1 when they top that number. The Bears offense has struggled at times, especially during the team's nine-game losing streak, but if Caleb Williams can get the offense back on track, that would take some pressure off the defense. If the defense can force a few turnovers, that would also help as the Bears are 4-2 when they force at least two turnovers in a game. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Cody Benjamin by clicking here. 

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. 

• ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Caleb Williams OVER 23.5 rushing yards (-145 at BetMGM): When it comes to scrambling, Williams has gotten a lot more aggressive over the past few weeks. Since Week 11, Williams has gone over 23.5 rushing yards in five of Chicago's six games. In that same span, he's averaged 34.3 rushing yards per game. When Williams gets in trouble, he likes to take off and I think we'll see him take off quite a few times tonight.  
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Jason Myers OVER 1.5 field goals (-110 at BetMGM): The Seahawks kicker has hit at least two field goals in three of his past four games and with the way Seattle is playing on offense right now, I think we'll see him get at least two attempts tonight. Also, opposing teams are hitting an average of 2.2 field goals against the Bears this season, which is the third-highest number in the NFL. 

And in case you're wondering, my props are now 42-31 on the season (20-14 on kicker props and 22-17 on all other props).  

And finally, here are our picks for the game.  

PICKS FOR 'TNF'

Cody's pick: Seahawks 23-20 over Bears
Prisco's pick: Seahawks (-3.5) to cover against Bears 
My pick: Seahawks 20-17 over Bears

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, you can see who our eight experts are taking by clicking here. 

5. NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 17: Five teams can secure a postseason spot

There are 14 playoff spots in the NFL and so far, nine of them have been clinched. The final five spots can ALL be clinched as soon as this weekend, which means we could head into the final week of the season with exactly zero playoff berths up for grabs (Of course, even if all the playoff spots are clinched heading into Week 18, there would still be some drama around the playoff seeding). 

There are multiple playoff-clinching scenarios this week, but we're just going to take a look at the simplest one for each team. 

BRONCOS (9-6)
Easiest path: The Broncos will clinch a playoff berth if they beat the Bengals on Saturday. 

CHARGERS (9-6)
Easiest path: The Chargers will clinch a playoff berth if they beat the Patriots on Saturday. 

As for the rest of the AFC, the Chiefs clinched the No. 1 overall seed with their win over the Steelers on Wednesday, which means they'll get a week off during the wild-card round. The Texans also locked themselves into the No. 4 seed due to their loss to Baltimore. 

In the NFC, there are a total of three spots that can be clinched this week: 

RAMS (9-6)
Easiest path: The Rams will clinch a playoff berth if they beat the Cardinals on Saturday COMBINED with a Seahawks loss to the Bears tonight. 

COMMANDERS (10-5)
Easiest path: The Commanders will clinch a playoff berth if they beat the Falcons on Sunday night.  

FALCONS (8-7)
Easiest path: There's only one scenario where the Falcons can clinch a playoff spot this weekend and it would involve clinching the NFC South. For that to happen, the Falcons could have to beat Washington COMBINED with the Buccaneers losing to the Panthers. 

In other clinching news, the Eagles can clinch the NFC East with a win over the Cowboys. The Lions can also lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win over the 49ers on Monday COMBINED with a Vikings loss to the Packers. Unlike the AFC, we haven't seen a single team clinch a specific seed in the NFC yet. 

If you want to check out all 14 clinching scenarios that are in play during Week 17, you can do that here. 

6. QB Power Rankings: Lamar Jackson on top 

We usually feature our QB Power Rankings in the Wednesday newsletter, but since there was no Wednesday newsletter this week, we're bumping this to today. This weekly QB ranking comes from Cody Benjamin and when putting this ranking together, one thing that's very important to note is that it's "based more on current standing than the bigger picture." Basically, the quarterbacks are being ranked based on what they're doing this season. 

With that in mind, let's take a look at Cody's top five quarterbacks in this week's ranking: 

1. Lamar Jackson. "This man is a walking highlight reel, effortlessly electric as both a tight-window thrower and play-extending speedster. His magical physical gifts are fully paired with smart, efficient and authoritative play."
2. Joe Burrow. "If the Bengals sneak into the playoffs after an ugly start to the season, it will be almost exclusively thanks to his unbreakable downfield connection with Ja'Marr Chase, a touchdown machine."
3. Josh Allen. "Allen gets the job done however he can. The one worry about his Superman tendencies is durability; he's now banged up both arms/hands during his otherwise dynamic MVP bid."
4. Jared Goff. "The battle-tested vet has seen his touchdown total increase in each of his seasons with Detroit."
5. Jordan Love. "Josh Jacobs' bruising run game may be the top ingredient for Matt LaFleur's January attack, but it's Love's live-wire arm that truly keeps defenses on their heels. He's just such a gifted thrower."

Well, well well. Cody has Lamar Jackson over Josh Allen and it will be interesting to see if MVP voters feel the same way. Right now, Allen is the slight favorite to win the award at -250 at Draft Kings, but Jackson isn't too far behind him at +160 (You can read more about the MVP odds here). 

As for Cody's QB ranking, you can check out where every QB ended up by checking out his full story here.